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Business cycle fluctuations and the distribution of consumption
De Giorgi, Giacomo; Gambetti, Luca (2015-03-01)
This paper sheds new light on the interactions between business cycles and the consumption distribution. We use Consumer Expenditure Survey data and a factor model to characterize the cyclical dynamics of the consumption distribution. We first establish that our approach is able to closely match business cycle fluctuations of consumption from the National Account. We then study the responses of the consumption distribution to total factor productivity shocks and economic policy uncertainty shocks. Importantly, we find that the responses of the right tail of the consumption distribution, ...
Staff Reports , Paper 716

Working Paper
Trends in poverty and inequality among Hispanics
Zavodny, Madeline; Orrenius, Pia M. (2011)
Since the 1970s, the poverty rate has remained largely unchanged among Hispanics but has declined among non-Hispanic whites and blacks, particularly before the onset of the recent recession. The influx of large numbers of immigrants partially explains why poverty rates have not fallen over time among Hispanics> ; In 2009, Hispanics were more than twice as likely to be poor than non-Hispanic whites. Lower average English ability, low levels of educational attainment, part-time employment, the youthfulness of Hispanic household heads, and the 2007?09 recession are important factors that have ...
Working Papers , Paper 1109

Working Paper
The Age Gap in Mortgage Access
Amornsiripanitch, Natee (2023-02-28)
This paper uses data on millions of single-borrower mortgage applications to study the relationship between applicant age and mortgage application outcomes. Conditional on a rich set of applicant, property, and loan characteristics, mortgage refinance applications submitted by older borrowers are associated with higher rejection probabilities. This pattern holds within lender and across loan types. Rejection probability increases smoothly with age and accelerates in old age. The acceleration is slower for female applicants. Inability to maintain properties may contribute as older applicants ...
Working Papers , Paper 23-03

Working Paper
Health Inequality and Health Types
Borella, Margherita; Bullano, Francisco; De Nardi, Mariacristina; Krueger, Benjamin; Manresa, Elena (2024-08-23)
While health affects many economic outcomes, its dynamics are still poorly understood. We use k-means clustering, a machine learning technique, and data from the Health and Retirement Study to identify health types during middle and old age. We identify five health types: the vigorous resilient, the fair-health resilient, the fair-health vulnerable, the frail resilient, and the frail vulnerable. They are characterized by different starting health and health and mortality trajectories. Our five health types account for 84% of the variation in health trajectories and are not explained by ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 097

Working Paper
Unequal Climate Policy in an Unequal World
Hur, Sewon; Carroll, Daniel R.; Belfiori, Elisa (2025-01-31)
We study climate policy in an economy with heterogeneous households, two types of goods (clean and dirty), and a climate externality from the dirty good. Using household expenditure and emissions data, we document that low-income households have higher emissions per dollar spent than high-income households, making a flat carbon tax regressive. We build a model that captures this fact and study climate policies that are neutral with respect to the income distribution. We show that the constrained optimal carbon tax in a heterogeneous economy is heterogeneous: Higher-income households face a ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 427

Working Paper
Achievement Gap Estimates and Deviations from Cardinal Comparability
Nielsen, Eric R. (2015-05-12)
This paper assesses the sensitivity of standard empirical methods for measuring group differences in achievement to violations in the cardinal comparability of achievement test scores. The paper defines a distance measure over possible weighting functions (scalings) of test scores. It then constructs worst-case bounds for the bias in the estimated achievement gap (or achievement gap change) that could result from using the observed rather than the true test scale, given that the true and observed scales are no more than a fixed distance from each other. The worst-case weighting functions have ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2015-40

Working Paper
Heterogeneous Agents Dynamic Spatial General Equilibrium
Dvorkin, Maximiliano (2023-03-22)
I develop a dynamic model of migration and labor market choice with incomplete markets and uninsurable income risk to quantify the effects of international trade on workers’ employment reallocation, earnings, and wealth. Macroeconomic conditions in different labor markets and idiosyncratic shocks shape agents’ labor market choices, consumption, earnings, and asset accumulation over time. Despite the rich heterogeneity, the model is highly tractable as the optimal consumption, labor supply, capital accumulation, and migration and reallocation decisions of individual workers across ...
Working Papers , Paper 2023-005

Working Paper
Inequality in the Time of COVID-19: Evidence from Mortgage Delinquency and Forbearance
Geng, Liang; Cordell, Lawrence R.; An, Xudong; Lee, Keyoung (2021-03-02)
Using a novel database that combines mortgage servicing records, credit-bureau data, and loan application information, we show that lower-income and minority borrowers have signiﬁcantly higher nonpayment rates during the COVID-19 pandemic, even after controlling for conventional risk factors. A difference-in-differences analysis shows how much the pandemic has exacerbated income and racial inequalities. We then find that government and private-sector forbearance programs have mitigated these inequalities in the near term, as lower-income and minority borrowers have taken up the short-term ...
Working Papers , Paper 21-09

Working Paper
An Assignment Model of Knowledge Diffusion and Income Inequality
Luttmer, Erzo G. J. (2014-09-16)
Randomness in individual discovery tends to spread out productivities in a population, while learning from others keeps productivities together. In combination, these two mechanisms for knowledge accumulation give rise to long-term growth and persistent income inequality. This paper considers a world in which those with more useful knowledge can teach those with less useful knowledge, with competitive markets assigning students to teachers. In equilibrium, students who are able to learn quickly are assigned to teachers with the most productive knowledge. The long-run growth rate of this ...
Working Papers , Paper 715

Discussion Paper
Introduction to Heterogeneity Series II: Labor Market Outcomes
Chakrabarti, Rajashri (2020-03-03)
While average outcomes serve as important yardsticks for how the economy is doing, understanding heterogeneity—how outcomes vary across a population—is key to understanding both the whole picture and the implications of any given policy. Following our six-part look at heterogeneity in October 2019, we now turn our focus to heterogeneity in the labor market—the subject of four posts set for release tomorrow morning. Average labor market statistics mask a lot of underlying variability—disparities that factor into labor market dynamics. While we have written about labor market ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200303

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