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Spillovers and Spillbacks
We study international monetary policy spillovers and spillbacks in a tractable two-country Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian model. Relative to Representative Agent (RANK) models, our framework introduces a precautionary-savings channel, as households in both countries face uninsurable income risk, and a real-income channel, as households have heterogeneous marginal propensities to consume (MPC). While both channels amplify the size of spillovers/spillbacks, only precautionary savings can change their sign relative to RANK. Spillovers are likely to be larger in economies with higher ...
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The International RBC Model Finally Works!
We show that incorporating uninsurable countercyclical income risk into a standard international RBC model can qualitatively and quantitatively account for the quantity puzzles in open-economy macro, namely (i) the Backus-Smith puzzle, (ii) the Backus-Kehoe-Kydland puzzle, and (iii) the weak correlation between the trade balance and the exchange rate. We also show that our model can simultaneously account for the Fama puzzle and the evidence that high interest rate countries have stronger currencies—which representative-agents models that rely only on financial or demand shocks cannot ...
Working Paper
The Ramsey Steady-State Conundrum in Heterogeneous-Agent Economies
In infinite horizon, heterogeneous-agent and incomplete-market models, the existence of an interior Ramsey steady state is often assumed instead of proven. This paper makes two fundamental contributions: (i) We prove that the interior Ramsey steady state assumed by Aiyagari (1995) does not exist in the standard Aiyagari model. Specifically, a steady state featuring the modified golden rule and a positive capital tax is feasible but not optimal. (ii) We design a modified, analytically tractable version of the standard Aiyagari model to unveil the necessary and/or sufficient conditions for the ...
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Understanding HANK: insights from a PRANK
We show analytically that whether incomplete markets resolve New Keynesian ?paradoxes? depends primarily on the cyclicality of income risk, rather than marginal propensity to consume (MPC) heterogeneity. Incomplete markets reduce the effectiveness of forward guidance and multipliers in a liquidity trap only with procyclical risk. Countercyclical risk amplifies these ?puzzles.? Procyclical risk permits determinacy under a peg; countercyclical risk generates indeterminacy even under the Taylor principle. MPC heterogeneity leaves determinacy and paradoxes qualitatively unaffected, but can change ...
Working Paper
Optimal Dynamic Tax-Transfer Policies in Heterogeneous-Agents Economies
When designing an optimal tax-transfer system, the existing literature identifies two key factors: labor efficiency and debt efficiency. The labor-efficiency approach emphasizes the trade-off between redistribution and distortion in the labor market, while the debt efficiency approach emphasizes the trade-off between monopoly rent gains and distortion in the asset market. In this paper, we propose a third factor to consider when designing optimal tax-transfer policies: the dynamic-efficiency approach. To demonstrate this, we use an analytically tractable infinite-horizon model incorporating ...
Working Paper
Optimal Dynamic Tax-Transfer Policies in Heterogeneous-Agents Economies
When designing an optimal tax-transfer system, the existing literature identifies two key factors: labor efficiency and debt efficiency. The labor-efficiency approach emphasizes the trade-off between redistribution and distortion in the labor market, while the debt-efficiency approach emphasizes the trade-off between monopoly rent gains and distortion in the asset market. In this paper, we propose a third factor for designing optimal tax-transfer policies: the dynamic-efficiency approach. To demonstrate this, we use an analytically tractable infinite-horizon model incorporating both ex-ante ...
Working Paper
Low Risk Sharing with Many Assets
Classical contributions in international macroeconomics rely on goods-market mechanisms to reconcile the cyclicality of real exchange rates when financial markets are incomplete. However, cross-border trade in one domestic and one foreign-currency-denominated risk-free asset prohibits these mechanisms from breaking the pattern consistent with complete markets. In this paper, we characterize how goods markets drive exchange rate cyclicality, taking into account trade in risk-free and/or risky assets. We show that goods-market mechanisms come back into play, even when there is cross-border ...
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The cost of business cycles for unskilled workers
This paper reconsiders the cost of business cycles under incomplete markets. Primarily, we focus on the heterogeneity in the cost of business cycles among agents with different skill levels. Unskilled workers are subject to a much larger risk of unemployment during recessions than are skilled workers. Moreover, unskilled workers earn less income, which limits their ability to self-insure. We examine how this heterogeneity in unemployment risk and income translates into heterogeneity in the cost of business cycles. We set up a dynamic general equilibrium model with incomplete markets, in which ...
Working Paper
Incomplete Markets and Exchange Rates
We show imperfect risk-sharing within countries can reconcile the aggregate cyclicality of exchange rates in a two-country setting, i.e. the Backus-Smith puzzle, as long as exchange rates are sufficiently risky with respect to idiosyncratic states. In equilibrium, these exchange rate dynamics require that, despite a country experiencing higher consumption growth, idiosyncratic risk remains relatively elevated. Furthermore, we identify distinct roles for market incompleteness both within and across countries, to match key moments of exchange rates. Turning to household-level data, we measure ...
Working Paper
Are Government Bonds Net Wealth or a Liability? ---Optimal Debt and Taxes in an OLG Model with Uninsurable Income Risk
A positive national debt is often rationalized either by the assumption of dynamic inefficiency in an overlapping-generations (OLG) model, or by the hypothesis of heterogeneous-agents and incomplete-markets (HAIM) in an infinite horizon model. Both assumptions imply insufficient liquidity to support private saving and investment, thus calling for a positive level of public debt to improve social welfare. However, since public debt is financed often by distortionary future taxes, optimal debt and tax policies ought to be studied jointly in a single framework. In this paper we use a primal ...