Search Results
Speech
The outlook for the U.S. economy in 2018 and beyond: remarks at the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, New York City
Remarks at the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, New York City.
Speech
Remarks at the Economic Press Briefing on the Regional Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City
Remarks at the Economic Press Briefing on the Regional Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City.
Working Paper
The Rise and Fall of Consumption in the 2000s
U.S. consumption has gone through steep ups and downs since the turn of the millennium, but the causes of these fluctuations are still imperfectly identified. We quantify the relative impact on consumption growth of income, unemployment, house prices, credit scores, debt, expectations, foreclosures, inequality, and refinancings for four subperiods: the ?dot-com recession? (2001-2003), the ?subprime boom? (2004-2006), the Great Recession (2007-2009), and the ?tepid recovery? (2010-2012). We document that the explanatory power of different factors varies by subperiods, implying that a ...
Briefing
How Can We Make a Progressive Tax System More Efficient?
In the U.S., income tax rates rise as households earn more. However, such a system means workers have a reduced incentive to increase their earnings. In this article, I discuss a finding from one of my papers that explores the possible effects of targeting tax rates on additional characteristics besides income.
Journal Article
Capital Flow Surges and Rising Income Inequality
Surges of foreign investment into developing countries can amplify economic stress and potentially undermine their financial stability. New evidence suggests that excessive foreign capital inflows can also increase income inequality in emerging economies. Research shows that, as low global interest rates trigger more investment, those inflow surges benefit entrepreneurs by raising their returns, while lowering household earnings on bank deposits within the countries. The potential impact on income inequality provides another reason beyond financial stability for resisting abrupt surges in ...
Speech
Opening remarks on higher education: financing, costs, and returns: remarks at the Conference on Higher Education Financing and Costs and Returns of Higher Education, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City
Remarks at the Conference on Higher Education Financing and Costs and Returns of Higher Education, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City.
Journal Article
Historical Patterns around Financial Crises
Long-run historical data for advanced economies provide evidence to help policymakers understand specific conditions that typically lead up to financial crises. Recent research finds that rapid growth in the top income share and prolonged low labor productivity growth are robust predictors of crises. Moreover, if crises are preceded by these developments, then the subsequent recoveries are slower. This recent empirical evidence suggests that financial crises are not simply random events but are typically preceded by a prolonged buildup of macrofinancial imbalances.
Working Paper
Income Inequality and Economic Growth in United States Counties: 1990s, 2000s and 2010s
Using a common reduced-form regional growth model framework, an expanded geographic classification of counties, additional years of data, a trio of income inequality metrics, and multiple empirical specifications, this analysis confirms and builds upon the notion that the nature of the relationship between income inequality and economic growth varies across geography (Fallah and Partridge, 2007). A positive relationship between an income Gini coefficient and per capita income growth is observed only in central metro counties with population densities greater than 915 people per square mile or ...
Working Paper
Monetary Policy and the Distribution of Income: Evidence from U.S. Metropolitan Areas
We use Zip code–level Statistics of Income data from the Internal Revenue Service to measure the distribution of income within U.S. metropolitan areas from 1998 through 2019. Exploiting geographic variation in income distribution over time, we study how unanticipated changes in the monetary policy stance shape the subsequent dynamics of income inequality. The results show that monetary policy persistently affects labor income inequality and that these distributional effects are amplified significantly in weak local labor markets.
Journal Article
Shifting Dynamics in Eighth District Cities
From 2017 to 2018, the cities of St. Louis, Little Rock, Louisville and Memphis had better commute times and cheaper housing but higher income inequality and lower median household incomes.