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A Dollar’s Worth: Inflation Is Real
Bennett, Jeannette N.
(2021-12)
Understanding the reality of inflation can help consumers make decisions in personal finance. Learn more about inflation, how it’s measured, and how the inflation rate is calculated in the December 2021 issue of Page One Economics: Focus on Finance.
Page One Economics Newsletter
Working Paper
Earnings Misperceptions and Household Distress
Sanchez, Juan M.; Song, Stefan
(2025-11-03)
Households learn whether income changes are temporary or persistent from their own paychecks. This paper develops a quantitative model of financial distress that incorporates this inference and estimates the extent to which households overweight recent outcomes—diagnostic expectations—using survey data on income beliefs. The model explains distress without assuming extreme impatience and aligns with the observed relationship between income and interest rates. Learning and diagnostic expectations account for about half of delinquencies and one-third of bankruptcies. Diagnostic expectations ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2025-030
Working Paper
Earnings Misperceptions and Household Distress
Sanchez, Juan M.; Song, Stefan
(2025-10-24)
Households learn whether income changes are temporary or persistent from the history of their own paychecks. This paper develops a quantitative model of household financial distress that incorporates this inference and uses survey data on income expectations to estimate the extent to which households overweight recent outcomes—diagnostic expectations. The model improves on the standard full-information, rational-expectations benchmark in two key dimensions: it explains financial distress without assuming extreme impatience, and it more accurately captures the empirical correlation between ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2025-030
Discussion Paper
Understanding the Racial and Income Gap in COVID-19: Public Transportation and Home Crowding
Avtar, Ruchi; Chakrabarti, Rajashri; Pinkovskiy, Maxim L.
(2021-01-12)
This is the second post in a series that aims to understand the gap in COVID-19 intensity by race and income. In our first post, we looked at how comorbidities, uninsurance rates, and health resources may help to explain the race and income gap observed in COVID-19 intensity. We found that a quarter of the income gap and more than a third of the racial gap in case rates are explained by health status and system factors. In this post, we look at two factors related to indoor density—namely public transportation use and home crowding. Here, we will aim to understand whether these two factors ...
Liberty Street Economics
, Paper 20210112b
Discussion Paper
(Unmet) Credit Demand of American Households
Livingston, Max; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert; Zafar, Basit
(2013-11-06)
One of the direct effects of the 2008 financial crisis on U.S. households was a sharp tightening of credit. Households that had previously been able to borrow relatively freely through credit cards, home equity loans, or personal loans suddenly found those lines closed off—just when they needed them the most. In recent months, aggregate statistics such as the Federal Reserve’s Consumer Credit series and the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey have shown a gradual improvement in consumer credit. The former series is an indicator of interaction of credit supply and demand, while the latter ...
Liberty Street Economics
, Paper 20131106
Report
The Demographics of Wealth 2015, Essay No. 1: Race, Ethnicity and Wealth
Boshara, Ray; Noeth, Bryan J.; Emmons, William R.
(2015-02)
This first essay in the "Demographics of Wealth" series examines the connection between race or ethnicity and wealth accumulation over the past quarter-century. As with subsequent essays, this one is the result of an analysis of data collected between 1989 and 2013 through the Federal Reserve's Survey of Consumer Finances. More than 40,000 heads of households were interviewed over those years.
Community Development Publications and Reports
Report
The Demographics of Wealth 2015, Essay No. 3: Age, Birth Year and Wealth
Boshara, Ray; Emmons, William R.; Noeth, Bryan J.
(2015-07)
This essay documents significant differences in financial choices and financial outcomes across the life cycle (that is, at different stages of life) and across birth-year cohorts (that is, comparing different groups of people who were born at about the same time). Like race-, ethnicity- and education-related disparities, the age- and birth year-related differences described here have existed at least since 1989, when our data begin. We show that gaps in several financial behaviors and financial outcomes related to age and year of birth have grown larger in recent years.
Community Development Publications and Reports
Report
Demographics of Wealth 2018, Essay No. 3: The Bigger They Are, The Harder They Fall: The Decline of the White Working Class
Emmons, William R.; Kent, Ana Hernández; Ricketts, Lowell R.
(2018-09)
This essay explores the intersection of race, ethnicity and education, which we use as a proxy for class. We examine five measures of well-being between 1989 and 2016, the range spanned by the Federal Reserve's Survey of Consumer Finances.
Community Development Publications and Reports
Report
The Demographics of Wealth 2018, Essay No. 1: The Financial Returns from College across Generations: Large but Unequal
Emmons, William R.; Kent, Ana Hernández; Ricketts, Lowell R.
(2018-02)
This essay explores the connections between a person's level of completed education and measures of his or her family's financial well-being, including income and wealth. For simplicity, we examine two discrete groups—families headed by someone who has completed a four-year college degree or higher ("college grads") and those without a college graduate head ("nongrads"). This essay shows that inherited demographic characteristics significantly influence the expected income and wealth outcomes associated with one's own education. These characteristics include birth year (and hence age at the ...
Community Development Publications and Reports
Report
Demographics of Wealth 2018, Essay No. 2: A Lost Generation? Long-Lasting Wealth Impacts of the Great Recession on Young Families
Emmons, William R.; Kent, Ana Hernández; Ricketts, Lowell R.
(2018-05)
This essay explores the connections between a person's birth year and measures of his or her family's financial well-being, including income and wealth. We found that wealth losses occurred across the age spectrum around the Great Recession but that families younger than retirement age suffered the most and have rebounded slowly. Based on data from nearly 48,000 families born throughout the 20th century, we found that families headed by someone born in 1960 or later were less likely to have recovered by 2016 than older families.
Community Development Publications and Reports
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