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Working Paper
The Allocation of Immigrant Talent: Macroeconomic Implications for the U.S. and Across Countries
See, Kurt; Birinci, Serdar; Leibovici, Fernando (2022-06)
We quantify the barriers to the economic integration of immigrants using an occupational choice model with natives and immigrants of multiple types subject to wedges that distort their allocations. We show that key parameters, including wedges, can be estimated to match the distribution of employment and earnings across individuals and occupations. We find sizable output gains from removing immigrant wedges in the U.S., accounting for 7 percent of immigrants’ overall economic contribution. These gains arise from increased labor force participation and from reallocation from manual toward ...
Working Papers , Paper 2021-004

Working Paper
Dynamic Responses to Immigration
Colas, Mark (2018-01-29)
I analyze the dynamic effects of immigration by estimating an equilibrium model of local labor markets in the US. The model includes firms in multiple cities and sectors which combine capital, skilled and unskilled labor in production, and forward-looking workers who choose their sector and location each period as a dynamic discrete choice. A counterfactual unskilled immigration inflow leads to an initial wage drop for unskilled workers and a wage increase for skilled workers. These effects dissipate rapidly as unskilled workers migrate away from heavily affected cities and workers shift ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 6

Journal Article
Disability, Immigration, and Postpandemic Labor Supply
Guo, Angela; Krolikowski, Pawel (2024-03-05)
We study the large labor force increases since 2020 among disabled workers and among foreign-born workers in the United States. We show that the increase in the disabled labor force largely reflects a change in self-reported disability status among those already in the labor force rather than an actual increase in labor supply. We conjecture that immigration will likely contribute more to labor supply in 2024 than it did before the pandemic, but less than in 2020–2023.
Economic Commentary , Volume 2024 , Issue 05 , Pages 8

Working Paper
The Impacts of Unauthorized Immigration on U.S. Labor and Housing Markets: New Evidence from Administrative Microdata
Zhou, Xiaoqing; Wilson, Daniel J. (2026-03-23)
From early 2021 to early 2024, the U.S. experienced an unprecedented boom in unauthorized immigration, followed by a rapid slowdown beginning in mid-2024. We provide the first systematic empirical assessment of the labor- and housing-market effects of this episode. Using newly available administrative microdata on individual immigrants, we construct measures of net unauthorized immigration at the national and local levels and exploit plausibly exogenous variation across local markets. We find that unauthorized immigrant worker flows (UIWF) increased local employment approximately one-for-one, ...
Working Papers , Paper 2607

Differences in Immigration Patterns between the U.S. and Other OECD Nations
Bandyopadhyay, Subhayu; Le, Hoang (2024-05-07)
Geography, historical linkages and economic partnerships have shaped variations in immigration flows across the U.S. and other developed nations.
On the Economy

Working Paper
Getting Schooled: The Role of Universities in Attracting Immigrant Entrepreneurs
Amornsiripanitch, Natee; Gompers, Paul; Hu, George; Vasudevan, Kaushik (2022-08-08)
We study immigrant founders of venture-capital backed firms using a new and detailed data set that we assemble on the backgrounds of founders. Immigrant founders have been critical to the entrepreneurial ecosystem, accounting for roughly 20% of all venture capital-backed founders over the past 30 years. We document the channels through which immigrant founders arrive in the United States and how those channels have changed over time. Higher education has served as the primary entry channel for immigrant founders. The share of foreign-educated immigrant founders who initially arrive for work ...
Working Papers , Paper 22-19

Working Paper
The Postpandemic U.S. Immigration Surge: New Facts and Inflationary Implications
Cheremukhin, Anton A.; Hur, Sewon; Mau, Ron; Mertens, Karel; Richter, Alexander W.; Zhou, Xiaoqing (2024-10-01)
The U.S. experienced an extraordinary postpandemic surge in unauthorized immigration. This paper combines administrative data on border encounters and immigration court records with household survey data to document two new facts about these immigrants: They tend to be hand-to-mouth consumers and low-skilled workers that complement the existing workforce. We build these features into a model with capital, household heterogeneity and population growth to study the inflationary effects of this episode. Contrary to the popular view, we find little effect on inflation, as the increase in supply ...
Working Papers , Paper 2407

Briefing
The Impacts of Immigration: A Conference Recap
Banerjee, Manyu (2022-07)
What role does immigration policy play in economic growth? How does the quality of college-educated workers differ across country? Do firms that hire more skilled immigrants perform better than firms that do not? These were among the questions addressed by economists during a recent Richmond Fed research conference.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 22 , Issue 27

Working Paper
The Postpandemic U.S. Immigration Surge: New Facts and Inflationary Implications
Richter, Alexander W.; Zhou, Xiaoqing; Hur, Sewon; Mertens, Karel; Cheremukhin, Anton A.; Mau, Ron (2025-09-30)
The U.S. experienced an extraordinary surge in immigration from 2021 to 2024, which triggered widespread discussions about its macroeconomic impact, particularly on inflation. To determine the impact of the immigration surge, we first document the salient features of these new immigrants: they are primarily low-skilled relative to the existing workforce and more likely to be hand-to-mouth consumers. We then incorporate these features into a heterogeneous agent model with capital-skill complementarity. We find that the supply- and demand-side effects of the immigration surge roughly cancel ...
Working Papers , Paper 2407

Working Paper
The Effect of Immigration on Business Dynamics and Employment
Orrenius, Pia M.; Abraham, Alexander T.; Zavodny, Madeline (2020-02-28)
Immigration, like any positive labor supply shock, should increase the return to capital and spur business investment. These changes should have a positive impact on business creation and expansion, particularly in areas that receive large immigrant inflows. Despite this clear prediction, there is sparse empirical evidence on the effect of immigration on business dynamics. One reason may be data unavailability since public-access firm-level data are rare. This study examines the impact of immigration on business dynamics and employment by combining U.S. data on immigrant inflows from the ...
Working Papers , Paper 2004

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