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Working Paper
The Postpandemic U.S. Immigration Surge: New Facts and Inflationary Implications
Cheremukhin, Anton A.; Hur, Sewon; Mau, Ron; Mertens, Karel; Richter, Alexander W.; Zhou, Xiaoqing (2024-10-01)
The U.S. experienced an extraordinary postpandemic surge in unauthorized immigration. This paper combines administrative data on border encounters and immigration court records with household survey data to document two new facts about these immigrants: They tend to be hand-to-mouth consumers and low-skilled workers that complement the existing workforce. We build these features into a model with capital, household heterogeneity and population growth to study the inflationary effects of this episode. Contrary to the popular view, we find little effect on inflation, as the increase in supply ...
Working Papers , Paper 2407

Working Paper
The Allocation of Immigrant Talent: Macroeconomic Implications for the U.S. and Across Countries
See, Kurt; Birinci, Serdar; Leibovici, Fernando (2024-09-18)
We quantify the labor market barriers that immigrants face, using an occupational choice model with native-born individuals and immigrants of multiple types subject to wedges that distort their allocations. We find sizable output gains from removing immigrant wedges in the U.S., representing 25% of immigrants' overall economic contribution, and that these wedges alter the impact of alternative immigration policies. We harmonize microdata across 19 economies and exploit cross-country variation in immigrant outcomes and estimated wedges to examine the drivers of differences in wedges and gains ...
Working Papers , Paper 2021-004

Without Immigration, U.S. Economy Will Struggle to Grow
Smith, Chloe N.; Orrenius, Pia M. (2020-04-09)
Slowing labor force growth is the product of a number of factors—the aging of the U.S. population, retiring baby boomers and declining birth rates. But another element is immigration.
Dallas Fed Economics

Declining immigration weighs on GDP growth, with little impact on inflation
Orrenius, Pia M.; Ozor, Grace; Zavodny, Madeline; Zhou, Xiaoqing (2025-07-08)
Unauthorized immigration surged sharply in 2021–24 but has since declined abruptly with negative implications for economic growth. Estimates based on historical data and a structural vector autoregression model suggest gross domestic product growth in 2025 is 0.75 to 1 percentage points lower than in a benchmark simulation using the Congressional Budget Office’s immigration projections through November 2024.
Dallas Fed Economics

Surging population growth from immigration may have little effect on inflation
Cheremukhin, Anton A.; Hur, Sewon; Mau, Ron; Richter, Alexander W. (2024-07-09)
U.S. population growth increased sharply recently following to a wave of immigration. This article examines what this surprise immigration surge could mean for the macroeconomy.
Dallas Fed Economics

Lower Immigration Projections Mean Lower Breakeven Employment Growth Estimates
Bick, Alexander (2025-08-28)
As a result of lower projected growth in net immigration, the U.S. economy may need to create fewer jobs to keep the unemployment rate stable this year, according to this analysis.
On the Economy

Journal Article
The Role of Immigration in U.S. Labor Market Tightness
Duzhak, Evgeniya A. (2023-02-27)
Immigrants contribute a large portion of the growth in the U.S. population and labor force. However, immigration flows into the United States slowed significantly following immigration policy changes from 2017 to 2020 and the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Analysis of state-level data shows that this migration slowdown tightened local labor markets modestly, raising the ratio of job vacancies to unemployed workers 5.5 percentage points between 2017 and 2021. More recent data show immigration has rebounded strongly, helping to close the shortfall in foreign-born labor and ease tight labor ...
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2023 , Issue 06 , Pages 6

Researching the International Economics of Immigration
Pozo, Susan (2021-07-26)
Susan Pozo, a professor at Western Michigan University, studies the significance of remittances, the money that immigrants send back to their country of origin.
On the Economy

STEM Skills among Foreign-born Workers in the U.S.
Grittayaphong, Praew; Bandyopadhyay, Subhayu (2020-12-10)
Census data show that college-educated foreign-born workers have a relatively larger presence in STEM occupations than those born in the U.S.
On the Economy

Texas economic outlook downbeat as uncertainty increases
Cañas, Jesus; Morales-Burnett, Diego (2025-04-03)
The Texas economy grew slightly below trend through the first quarter of 2025. While job growth appears just off its long-term annual trend rate of about 2.1 percent, the Dallas Fed Texas Business Outlook Surveys (TBOS) point to slowing activity in both the services and manufacturing sectors.
Dallas Fed Economics

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