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Declining immigration weighs on GDP growth, with little impact on inflation
Unauthorized immigration surged sharply in 2021–24 but has since declined abruptly with negative implications for economic growth. Estimates based on historical data and a structural vector autoregression model suggest gross domestic product growth in 2025 is 0.75 to 1 percentage points lower than in a benchmark simulation using the Congressional Budget Office’s immigration projections through November 2024.
Break-even employment declined after immigration changes
Recent employment reports show U.S. payroll employment growth has cooled from its torrid pace in previous years, raising the question of whether this signals a healthy rebalancing or the start of a concerning slowdown.
Migration to Texas Fills Critical Gaps in Workforce, Human Capital
Continuing to retain working-age Texans and attract new ones from around the country and abroad is vital to maintaining the state’s workforce—its human capital—as baby boomers retire and birth rates decline.
Unprecedented U.S. immigration surge boosts job growth, output
U.S. labor market conditions are among the main drivers of an unprecedented surge of immigration, the exact size and consequences of which are still being assessed.
Surging population growth from immigration may have little effect on inflation
U.S. population growth increased sharply recently following to a wave of immigration. This article examines what this surprise immigration surge could mean for the macroeconomy.
Texas economic outlook downbeat as uncertainty increases
The Texas economy grew slightly below trend through the first quarter of 2025. While job growth appears just off its long-term annual trend rate of about 2.1 percent, the Dallas Fed Texas Business Outlook Surveys (TBOS) point to slowing activity in both the services and manufacturing sectors.
Report
English Proficiency and Labor Market Outcomes in New England
Proficiency in a country’s primary language is a skill that can be expected to improve labor market outcomes. Considering the United States specifically, individuals with strong English-language skills presumably could fare better in US labor markets compared with individuals who are less proficient in the language. These benefits potentially are most relevant for immigrants since their English proficiency may be lower on average than it is for natives. Given the importance of immigration to the economy of New England, where it plays a central role in population growth and where ...
Report
The impact of migration on earnings inequality in New England
Migration plays an important role in the New England economy; absent immigration, the region?s population and workforce would have shrunk in recent years. Yet increasingly, immigrant inflows have been met with legislative opposition at both the national and regional levels, motivated in part by concerns that immigration may be an important factor driving the marked rise in earnings inequality. The research findings presented in this report, however, indicate that immigration accounts for a very small portion?only 6.0 percent?of the rising earnings inequality that the region has experienced. ...
Briefing
Aging and declining populations in northern New England: is there a role for immigration?
In hundreds of communities across northern New England, the population is aging rapidly and becoming smaller. The entire country is aging, but northern New England stands out: Among the populations of all US states, those of Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont have the top-three highest median ages, respectively. The situation is even more extreme in northern New England?s rural counties, where the populations of the smallest towns generally are substantially older than those of the rest of the region. These communities also have seen the slowest, or even negative, population growth over the ...
Briefing
Recent Migration and Visa Trends in New England and Implications for the Labor Market
From 2010 to 2021, 56 percent of the total population growth in New England came from increases in foreign-born residents. The labor force participation rate of foreign-born residents in the region in 2022 was 4 percentage points higher than that of native-born residents. While numbers of J-1 visa workers and international students in the region have declined, overall temporary employment visa use in the region has continued to rise.