Search Results
Report
Banks versus Hurricanes: A Case Study of Puerto Rico after Hurricanes Irma and Maria
We study Puerto Rico’s experience after the severe hurricane season of 2017 to better understand how extreme weather disasters affect bank stability and their ability to lend. Despite the devastation wrought by two category 5 hurricanes in a single month, we find relatively modest and transitory impacts on bank performance with no evident decline in lending capacity. We discuss various mitigants that help limit bank exposure to extreme weather and whether these mitigants may be vulnerable given the potential for more severe and more impactful climate events.
Discussion Paper
Banks versus Hurricanes
The impacts of hurricanes analyzed in the previous post in this series may be far-reaching in the Second District. In a new Staff Report, we study how banks in Puerto Rico fared after Hurricane Maria struck the island on September 17, 2017. Maria makes a worst case in some respects because the economy and banks there were vulnerable beforehand, and because Maria struck just two weeks after Hurricane Irma flooded the island. Despite the immense destruction and disruption Maria caused, we find that the island’s economy and banks recovered surprisingly quickly. We discuss the various ...
Report
How Bad Are Weather Disasters for Banks?
Not very. We find even the most destructive weather disasters over the last quarter century had only modest effects on U.S. banks’ performance. This stability seems endogenous rather than a mere reflection of federal disaster aid, as disasters tend to increase loan demand which helps offset losses and boosts profits. Local banks avoid mortgage lending where floods are more common than official flood maps would predict, suggesting local knowledge may also mitigate disaster impacts. Our findings inform ongoing assessments of the physical risks to banks from climate change.
Discussion Paper
The Effect of Superstorm Sandy on the Macroeconomy
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) of the U.S. Department of Commerce has reported that real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased at a very sluggish 0.4 percent annual rate in the final quarter of 2012. A natural question to ask is to what extent, if any, did superstorm Sandy contribute to this weak performance. While not a particularly intense storm, it was the largest Atlantic storm on record with a diameter of roughly 1,100 miles. The storm severely disrupted economic activity from late October until well into November along the eastern seaboard from the Mid-Atlantic region into New ...
Working Paper
Using the Eye of the Storm to Predict the Wave of Covid-19 UI Claims
We leverage an event-study research design focused on the seven costliest hurricanes to hit the US mainland since 2004 to identify the elasticity of unemployment insurance filings with respect to search intensity. Applying our elasticity estimate to the state-level Google Trends indexes for the topic “unemployment,” we show that out-of-sample forecasts made ahead of the official data releases for March 21 and 28 predicted to a large degree the extent of the Covid-19 related surge in the demand for unemployment insurance. In addition, we provide a robust assessment of the uncertainty ...
Working Paper
Pricing Poseidon: Extreme Weather Uncertainty and Firm Return Dynamics
We investigate the uncertainty dynamics surrounding extreme weather events through the lens of option and stock markets by identifying market responses to the uncertainty regarding both potential hurricane landfall and subsequent economic impact. Stock options on firms with establishments exposed to the landfall region exhibit increases in implied volatility of 5-10 percent, reflecting impact uncertainty. Using hurricane forecasts, we show that landfall uncertainty and potential impact uncertainty are reflected in prices before landfall. We find no evidence that markets incorporate better ...
Working Paper
Premiums or Peril
Using fine-grained data on 465,000 Florida home sales over twelve years and semiparametric machine learning methods, we examine how home prices respond to weather-related risk factors. After controlling for geography, home characteristics, and transaction features, we find that home prices are negatively related to property-level expected weather losses derived from catastrophe models, insurance premiums, and exposure to recent hurricanes, but with notably different magnitudes. Expected weather losses show the strongest association with prices and are consistent with markets rationally ...
Speech
Important choices for the Federal Reserve in the years ahead: remarks at Lehman College, Bronx, New York
Remarks at Lehman College, Bronx, New York.
Speech
Prospects for the local economy and the importance of workforce development: remarks at Onondaga Community College, Syracuse, New York
Remarks at Onondaga Community College, Syracuse, New York.
Working Paper
Using the Eye of the Storm to Predict the Wave of Covid-19 UI Claims
We leverage an event-study research design focused on the seven costliest hurricanes to hit the US mainland since 2004 to identify the elasticity of unemployment insurance filings with respect to search intensity. Applying our elasticity estimate to the state-level Google Trends indexes for the topic “unemployment,” we show that out-of-sample forecasts made ahead of the official data releases for March 21 and 28 predicted to a large degree the extent of the Covid-19 related surge in the demand for unemployment insurance. In addition, we provide a robust assessment of the uncertainty ...