Search Results
Working Paper
Supply Shock Versus Demand Shock: The Local Effects of New Housing in Low-Income Areas
We study the local effects of new market-rate housing in low-income areas using microdata on large apartment buildings, rents, and migration. New buildings decrease nearby rents by 5 to 7 percent relative to locations slightly farther away or developed later, and they increase in-migration from low-income areas. Results are driven by a large supply effect—we show that new buildings absorb many high-income households—that overwhelms any offsetting endogenous amenity effect. The latter may be small because most new buildings go into already-changing areas. Contrary to common concerns, new ...
Working Paper
The Effect of Second-Generation Rent Controls: New Evidence from Catalonia
Catalonia enacted a second-generation rental cap policy that affected only some municipalities and, within those, only units with prices above their “reference” price. We show that, as intended, the policy led to a reduction in rental prices, but with price increases at the bottom and price declines at the top of the distribution. The policy also affected supply, with exit at the top which is not compensated by entry at the bottom. We show that a model with quality differences in rental units rationalizes the empirical facts and allows us to compute the welfare consequences of the policy.
Working Paper
Locked In: Rate Hikes, Housing Markets, and Mobility
Rising interest rates in 2022 introduced large moving costs for homeowners with low, fixed-rate mortgages. Using a novel dataset linking mortgage loans, consumer credit profiles, and property sales, we examine the effects of rate hikes on household mobility and the broader economic impacts of the resulting mortgage rate lock-in. As market rates rise relative to those on borrowers’ existing loans, likelihood of moving falls with the highest elasticity among borrowers just “in the money.” Our results suggest about 44% of the decline in moves among mortgage holders between 2021 and 2022 ...
Journal Article
Upfront: New from the Richmond Fed’s Regional Matters blog
Multiple blog posts.
Working Paper
Land development and frictions to housing supply over the business cycle
Using a novel data set of U.S. residential land developments, we document that the average time to develop residential properties-which includes both the time spent preparing land infrastructures and construction-is about three years, consistent with sizable lags in housing investment projects. We show that the time to develop is highly dispersed across locations, a finding that helps quantify the housing supply elasticity that is relevant for assessing local housing variations over the business cycle. We also show that incorporating long and dispersed time to develop into an otherwise ...
Working Paper
Rural Affordable Rental Housing : Quantifying Need, Reviewing Recent Federal Support, and Assessing the Use of Low Income Housing Tax Credits in Rural Areas
Recently, there has been significant interest in the high levels of rental cost burden being experienced across the United States. Much of this scholarship has focused on rental cost burdens in larger urban areas, or at the national level, and has not explored differences in the prevalence of rental cost burden in urban versus rural communities. In this paper, I find that rental cost burdens are a challenge facing both urban and rural communities. However, despite the need for affordable rental housing in rural communities identified, I find the amount of resources made available by the ...
Working Paper
Is the Rent Too High? Aggregate Implications of Local Land-Use Regulation
Highly productive U.S. cities are characterized by high housing prices, low housing stock growth, and restrictive land-use regulations (e.g., San Francisco). While new residents would benefit from housing stock growth in cities with highly productive firms, existing residents justify strict local land-use regulations on the grounds of congestion and other costs of further development. This paper assesses the welfare implications of these local regulations for income, congestion, and urban sprawl within a general-equilibrium model with endogenous regulation. In the model, households choose ...
Working Paper
Report on the Potential Impacts of Property Tax Abatement on Rental Housing Construction in Boston
Boston’s high housing costs reflect a historic failure to build enough units to satisfy demand. Interest rates and construction costs have risen recently, and the flow of new market-rate residential housing projects has slowed. To spur more construction, the City of Boston is considering various policy options. Our committee was asked by Boston Mayor Michelle Wu to assess the market impacts of one of these options: real estate tax abatements. This report presents our analysis of the likely effects on the number of units constructed and the costs to taxpayers of various tax abatement ...
Report
Addressing Housing Shortages through Tax Abatement
Rising rents, often attributed to a shortage of available housing, spotlight the urgent need to accelerate housing construction, particularly in Boston and other “superstar cities” where rents have been rising acutely. This report looks at the potential efficacy and costs of one particular policy option to jump-start residential construction: incentivizing developers to build by granting them tax abatements for new construction.
What Are the Long-run Trade-offs of Rent-Control Policies?
While rent-control policies can mean more affordable housing for some, research shows they can also lead to a decline in the supply and quality of rental housing.