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Working Paper
House Price Growth Interdependencies and Comovement
This paper examines house price comovement across U.S. metropolitan areas (MSAs). We develop a Markov-switching framework that includes a spatial similarity element based on distances between MSAs. Our approach allows for house price comovements that occur due to similar timing of downturns across groups or clusters of MSAs. The inclusion of the spatial element improves the model fit compared to a standard endogenous clustering model. We find seven clusters of MSAs, where each cluster experiences idiosyncratic house price downturns, plus one distinct national house price cycle. Notably, only ...
Working Paper
House Price Growth Interdependencies and Comovement
This paper examines house price comovement across U.S. metropolitan areas (MSAs). We develop a Markov-switching framework that includes a spatial similarity element based on distances between MSAs. Our approach allows for house price comovements that occur due to similar timing of downturns across groups or clusters of MSAs. The inclusion of the spatial element improves the model fit compared to a standard endogenous clustering model. We find seven clusters of MSAs, where each cluster experiences idiosyncratic house price downturns, plus one distinct national house price cycle. Notably, only ...