Search Results
Briefing
Why Is Geographic Mobility Declining?
Key TakeawaysIn the U.S., people of all ages are moving less than they did 30 years ago. In this article, we describe some of the leading economic explanations for this decline in geographic mobility.One set of explanations focuses on long-term trends such as population aging and expanding earnings opportunities for women.Another set of explanations focuses on changes in the geographic distribution of earnings, urban amenities and housing prices.
Briefing
Forecasting House Price Growth Using Months Supply of Housing
House prices are of keen interest to policymakers, economists, industry professionals and homebuyers. Naturally, forecasting the direction of house prices receives considerable attention. In this article, we'll examine a specific metric that has a robust ability to predict house price growth: months supply.Months supply is the number of houses available for sale divided by the number of houses sold per month. For example, if months supply is 6, it would take six months to sell all of the current inventory, assuming no additional houses were added and the sales per month did not change. Since ...
Journal Article
Introduction to Special Issue: The Appropriate Role of Government in U.S. Mortgage Markets
The U.S. mortgage finance system was one of the focal points of the 2007-08 financial crisis, yet legislative decisions about the appropriate role of the federal government in the system remain unsettled. Policy deliberations have focused on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac?the two enormous government-sponsored enterprises that were placed into federal conservatorship in September 2008. The two GSEs have long been the centerpieces of a mortgage finance system that relies on capital market financing of U.S. residential mortgages. This volume contains eight articles that touch on several key ...
Speech
Informing the Future of Housing Finance: Lessons from the Recent Past
A speech delivered by Charles Evans before the Indianapolis Neighborhood Housing Partnership Community Breakfast on August 24, 2010 in Indianapolis, Indiana.
Working Paper
The Postwar Conquest of the Home Ownership Dream
Post-World War II witnessed the largest housing boom in recent history. This paper develops a quantitative equilibrium model of tenure choice to analyze the key determinants in the co-movement between home-ownership and house prices over the period 1940-1960. The parameterized model matches key features and is capable of accounting for the observed housing boom. The key driver in understanding this boom is an asymmetric productivity change that favors the goods sector relative to the construction sector. Other factors such as demographics, income risk, and government policy are important ...
Working Paper
The Impact of Credit Risk Mispricing on Mortgage Lending during the Subprime Boom
We provide new evidence that credit supply shifts contributed to the U.S. subprime mortgage boom and bust. We collect original data on both government and private mortgage insurance premiums from 1999-2016, and document that prior to 2008, premiums did not vary across loans with widely different observable characteristics that we show were predictors of default risk. Then, using a set of post-crisis insurance premiums to fit a model of default behavior, and allowing for time-varying expectations about house price appreciation, we quantify the mispricing of default risk in premiums prior to ...
Speech
Remarks at the Economic Press Briefing on Homeownership and Housing Wealth, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City
Remarks at the Economic Press Briefing on Homeownership and Housing Wealth, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City.
Newsletter
Helping Homeowners During the Covid-19 Pandemic: Lessons from the Great Recession
The Covid-19 public health crisis has sharply reduced the earnings of millions of U.S. households, following the severe curtailment of economic activity needed to contain the spread of the virus. Meanwhile, households continue to confront their ongoing financial obligations. The ability of households to manage these obligations has important consequences for the speed at which the U.S. economy can recover from the current crisis. Households that are wiped out financially in the coming months will not be in a position to strongly resume spending once the virus containment issues have passed. ...
Discussion Paper
Hurricane Helene's Impact on Housing in Western North Carolina
Approximately six months ago, Hurricane Helene brought devastation to parts of the Fifth District, with communities in Western North Carolina1 (WNC) sustaining particularly severe damage. Today, communities are still recovering from Helene's impact — from profound loss of life to loss of property and critical infrastructure.Hurricanes can create unfavorable housing market conditions in affected areas, including damage to existing housing stock, reduction in housing supply, and deterioration of asset values. Prior to the storm, many WNC communities already exhibited signs of substantial ...
Report
The rescue of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
We describe and evaluate the measures taken by the U.S. government to rescue Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in September 2008. We begin by outlining the business model of these two firms and their role in the U.S. housing finance system. Our focus then turns to the sources of financial distress that the firms experienced and the events that ultimately led the government to take action in an effort to stabilize housing and financial markets. We describe the various resolution options available to policymakers at the time and evaluate the success of the choice of conservatorship, and other actions ...