Search Results
Update on Lot Availability and Construction Lending
"Location, location, location" is a truism associated with residential real estate. What we're hearing from our construction contacts could be another sort of truism: "Labor, lumber, lots." They are referring to the ongoing tight labor market in the construction trades, the skyrocketing price of lumber, and the difficulty of obtaining lots on which to build. While it's true that housing sector fundamentals—employment growth, household formation, tight inventory—continue to support an optimistic outlook, our industry contacts continue to report challenges regarding the supply chain. This ...
Working Paper
Locked In: Mobility, Market Tightness, and House Prices
Rising interest rates in 2022 significantly increased moving costs for homeowners with low fixed-rate mortgages, leading to a sharp drop in mobility. After accounting for biases from selective refinancing, we find mortgage rate "lock in"– the decline in moves due to the rising gap between market rates and homeowners' fixed rates– explains 44 percent of the drop in mortgage borrower mobility from 2021 to 2022. This effect primarily reflects fewer local moves, with only modest impacts on moves across labor market areas. Consistent with a housing search model, we show that under certain ...
Journal Article
Understanding the Eighth District’s Housing Market
Interest rate increases have cooled housing markets in the Eighth District, but trends in housing demand have led to tight residential real estate markets.
Newsletter
What Is Driving the Differences in Inflation Within the Midwest?
In this article, we explore differences in inflation dynamics across cities (and other areas) within the Midwest. We look independently at the impact of consumption patterns and price changes by expenditure categories, and find that the recent gaps in inflation across midwestern cities have existed largely because of disparities in price changes for housing and transportation, as well as differences in the consumption patterns (as captured by expenditure weights) for transportation and housing.
Working Paper
The Impact of Labels on Real Asset Valuations
Expectations and sentiment of economic agents about financial prospects are both the drivers and the leading indicators of economic phenomena. This paper shows that neighborhood labels, frequently used in realtors’ property descriptions, have a causal impact on the demand for housing. Results indicate that appraised values, house prices and rents increased in minority neighborhoods upon removal of neighborhood labels. The underlying mechanism likely works through forming expectations about future growth in housing markets, as documented by the decrease in the rent-to-price ratio and lack of ...
Journal Article
Remote Work and Housing Demand
The COVID-19 pandemic reshaped the way households work. Nearly a third of employees still worked from home part time or full time as of August 2022. This has significantly increased housing demand and is a key factor explaining why U.S. house prices grew 24% between November 2019 and November 2021. Analysis shows that the shift to remote work may account for more than half of overall house price increases and similar increases in rents. This fundamental evolution in work-related housing demand may be important for future house prices.
Working Paper
Why is the Hong Kong Housing Market Unaffordable? Some Stylized Facts and Estimations
The house price in Hong Kong is well-known to be "unaffordable." This paper argues that the commonly used house price-to-income ratio may be misleading in an economy with almost half of the population living in either public rental housing or subsidized ownership. Moreover, we re-focus on the relationships between economic fundamentals and the housing market of Hong Kong. While the aggregate GDP, population and longevity continue to grow, the real wage and household income fall behind. The trend component of the real GDP growth suffers a permanent downward shift after the first quarter of ...
Working Paper
A Theory of Housing Demand Shocks
Housing demand shocks in standard macroeconomic models are a primary source of house price fluctuations, but those models have difficulties in generating the observed large volatility of house prices relative to rents. We provide a microeconomic foundation for the reduced-form housing demand shocks with a tractable heterogenous-agent framework. In our model with heterogeneous beliefs, an expansion of credit supply raises housing demand of optimistic buyers and boosts house prices without affecting rents. A credit supply shock also leads to a positive correlation between house trading volumes ...
Working Paper
What are the Perceived Barriers to Homeownership for Young Adults?
As the U.S. emerges from the Great Recession, there is concern about slowing rates of new household formation and declining interest in homeownership, especially among younger households. Potential reasons that have been posited include tight mortgage credit and housing supply, changing preferences over tenure in the wake of the foreclosure crisis, and weak labor markets for young workers. In this paper, we examine how individual housing choices, and the stated motivations for these choices, reflect local housing affordability and individual financial circumstances, focusing particularly on ...
Examining the Effects of COVID-19 on the Southeast Housing Market
To continue to monitor how the COVID-19 crisis is affecting housing in the Atlanta Fed's district, we conducted a Southeast Housing Market Poll from April 24 to May 1. Respondents included homebuilders and residential sales agents (referred to here as brokers).