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Discussion Paper
Following Borrowers through Forbearance
Haughwout, Andrew F.; Lee, Donghoon; Scally, Joelle; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2020-11-17)
Today, the New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data reported that total household debt balances increased slightly in the third quarter of 2020, according to the latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. This increase marked a reversal from the modest decline in the second quarter of 2020, a downturn driven by a sharp contraction in credit card balances. In the third quarter, credit card balances declined again, even as consumer spending recovered somewhat; meanwhile, mortgage originations came in at a robust $1.049 trillion, the highest level since 2003. Many of the efforts ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20201117

Discussion Paper
Household Borrowing in Historical Perspective
Van der Klaauw, Wilbert; Lee, Donghoon; Scally, Joelle; Haughwout, Andrew F. (2017-05-17)
Today, the New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data released its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit for the first quarter of 2017. The report shows a rise in household debt balances in the quarter of $149 billion, the eleventh consecutive quarterly increase since the long period of deleveraging following the Great Recession. As of March 31, 2017, household debt balances stood at $12.73 trillion, surpassing the previous 2008 peak and hitting a level 14 percent above the trough seen in the second quarter of 2013. With this report’s release, we’re adding two new charts which ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20170517

Discussion Paper
Just Released: Press Briefing on Student Loan Borrowing and Repayment Trends, 2015
Van der Klaauw, Wilbert; Haughwout, Andrew F.; Scally, Joelle; Lee, Donghoon (2015-04-16)
This morning, Jamie McAndrews, the Director of Research at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, spoke to the press about the economic recovery, and his speech was followed by a special briefing by New York Fed economists on student loans. Here, we provide a short summary of the student loan briefing.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20150416

Working Paper
Important Factors Determining Fintech Loan Default: Evidence from the LendingClub Consumer Platform
Jagtiani, Julapa; Croux, Christophe; Korivi, Tarunsai; Vulanovic, Milos (2020-04-16)
This study examines key default determinants of fintech loans, using loan-level data from the LendingClub consumer platform during 2007–2018. We identify a robust set of contractual loan characteristics, borrower characteristics, and macroeconomic variables that are important in determining default. We find an important role of alternative data in determining loan default, even after controlling for the obvious risk characteristics and the local economic factors. The results are robust to different empirical approaches. We also find that homeownership and occupation are important factors in ...
Working Papers , Paper 20-15

Discussion Paper
Mortgage Rates Decline and (Prime) Households Take Advantage
Lee, Donghoon; Scally, Joelle; Haughwout, Andrew F.; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2021-02-17)
Today, the New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data reported that household debt balances increased by $206 billion in the fourth quarter of 2020, marking a $414 billion increase since the end of 2019. But the COVID pandemic and ensuing recession have marked an end to the dynamics in household borrowing that have characterized the expansion since the Great Recession, which included robust growth in auto and student loans, while mortgage and credit card balances grew more slowly. As the pandemic took hold, these dynamics were altered. One shift in 2020 was a larger bump up in mortgage ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20210217b

Dirty air from wildfires casts a cloud over household finances
An, Xudong; Gabriel, Stuart A.; Tzur-Ilan, Nitzan (2024-09-24)
Using California's Camp Fire as a natural laboratory, this article examines the effects of both fire and smoke-related air pollution on household credit card spending and repayment.
Dallas Fed Economics

Report
Import competition and household debt
Barrot, Jean-Noël; Loualiche, Erik; Plosser, Matthew; Sauvagnat, Julien (2017-08-15)
We analyze the effect of import competition on household balance sheets from 2000 to 2007 using individual data on consumer finances. We exploit variation in exposure to foreign competition using industry-level shipping costs and initial differences in regions? industry specialization. We show that household debt increased significantly in regions where manufacturing industries are more exposed to import competition. A one standard deviation increase in exposure to import competition explains 30 percent of the cross-regional variation in household leverage growth, and is mostly driven by home ...
Staff Reports , Paper 821

Working Paper
Mortgage Choice in the Housing Boom: Impacts of House Price Appreciation and Borrower Type
Furlong, Frederick T.; Takhtamanova, Yelena; Lang, David (2014-01)
The U.S. housing boom during the first part of the past decade was marked by rapid house price appreciation and greater access to mortgage credit for lower credit-rated borrowers. The subsequent collapse of the housing market and the high default rates on residential mortgages raise the issue of whether the pace of house price appreciation and the mix of borrowers may have affected the influence of fundamentals in housing and mortgage markets. This paper examines that issue in connection with one aspect of mortgage financing, the choice among fixed-rate and adjustable-rate mortgages. This ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2014-5

Discussion Paper
Who Are the Federal Student Loan Borrowers and Who Benefits from Forgiveness?
Goss, Jacob; Mangrum, Daniel; Scally, Joelle (2022-04-21)
The pandemic forbearance for federal student loans was recently extended for a sixth time—marking a historic thirty-month pause on federal student loan payments. The first post in this series uses survey data to help us understand which borrowers are likely to struggle when the pandemic forbearance ends. The results from this survey and the experience of some federal borrowers who did not receive forbearance during the pandemic suggest that delinquencies could surpass pre-pandemic levels after forbearance ends. These concerns have revived debates over the possibility of blanket forgiveness ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20220421b

Working Paper
Stuck in Subprime? Examining the Barriers to Refinancing Mortgage Debt
Lambie-Hanson, Lauren; Reid, Carolina (2017-11-16)
Despite falling interest rates and major federal policy intervention, many borrowers who could financially gain from refinancing have not done so. We investigate the rates at which, relative to prime borrowers, subprime borrowers seek and take out refinance loans, conditional on not experiencing mortgage default. We find that starting in 2009, subprime borrowers are about half as likely as prime borrowers to refinance, although they still shop for mortgage credit, indicating their interest in refinancing. The disparity in refinancing is driven in part by the tightened credit environment ...
Working Papers , Paper 17-39

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