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Discussion Paper
Credit Score Impacts from Past Due Student Loan Payments
Mangrum, Daniel; Wang, Crystal (2025-03-26)
In our companion post, we highlighted how the pandemic and subsequent policy actions disrupted trends in the growth of student loan balances, the pace of repayment, and the classification of delinquent loans. In this post, we discuss how these changes affected the credit scores of student loan borrowers and how the return of negative reporting of past due balances will impact the credit standing of student loan borrowers. We estimate that more than nine million student loan borrowers will face significant drops in credit score once delinquencies appear on credit reports in the first half of ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20250326b

Working Paper
A Tale of Two Bailouts: Effects of TARP and PPP on Subprime Consumer Debt
Berger, Allen N.; Roman, Raluca; Epouhe, Onesime (2021-09-23)
High levels of subprime consumer debt can create social problems. We test the effects of the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) and Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) bailouts during the Global Financial Crisis and COVID-19 crisis, respectively, on this debt. We use over 11 million credit bureau observations of individual consumer debt combined with banking, bailout, and local market data. We find that subprime consumers with more TARP institutions in their markets had significantly increased debt burdens following these bailouts. In contrast, PPP bailouts were associated with reduced ...
Working Papers , Paper 21-32

Discussion Paper
Could Rising Household Debt Undercut China’s Economy?
Clark, Hunter L.; Dawson, Jeffrey B. (2019-02-13)
Although there has been a notable deceleration in the pace of credit growth recently, the run-up in debt in China has been eye-popping, accounting for more than 60 percent of all new credit created globally over the past ten years. Rising nonfinancial sector debt was driven initially by an increase in corporate borrowing, which surged in 2009 in response to the global financial crisis. The most recent leg of China’s credit boom has been due to an important shift toward household lending. To better understand the rise in household debt in China and its implications for financial stability ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20190213

Ready for the Pandemic? Household Debt before the COVID-19 Shock
Famiglietti, Matthew; Garriga, Carlos (2020-05-13)
Before the pandemic, shares of delinquencies had already been growing in consumer finance loans, credit card debt, student loans and auto loans. And delinquencies can vary greatly among states.
On the Economy

Newsletter
The dynamic relationship between global debt and output
Beetz Fenske, Caroline; Zhang, Jing; Kim, Yun Jung (2021-05-04)
Given the ramifications of indebtedness for global growth, researchers and policymakers are keenly interested in the mechanisms underlying the linkages between debt and economic output. In our research, summarized in this article, we find that a debt shock adversely affects future economic output, and the impact is most pronounced in developing countries and in countries with a fixed exchange rate regime. This information and related results from the study are useful for policymakers considering appropriate levels of debt as well as an exchange rate regime that is most conducive to economic ...
Chicago Fed Letter , Issue 457 , Pages 5

Working Paper
The Relationship between Debt and Output
Zhang, Jing; Kim, Yun Jung (2020-11-19)
In this paper we empirically explore the relationship between debt and output in a panel of 72 countries over the period 1970–2014 using a vector autoregression (VAR). We document two puzzling empirical findings that contrast with what is predicted by a standard small open economy model by Aguiar and Gopinath (2007), where debt and output endogenously respond to total factor productivity (TFP) shocks. First, developing countries’ debt falls after a positive output shock, while the model predicts a debt expansion. Second, output declines in developed and developing countries after a debt ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2020-30

Working Paper
Asset Pledgeability and Endogenously Leveraged Bubbles
Phan, Toan; Bengui, Julien (2018-04-19)
We develop a simple model of defaultable debt and rational bubbles in the price of an asset, which can be pledged as collateral in a competitive credit pool. When the asset pledgeability is low, the down payment is high, and bubble investment is unleveraged, as in a standard rational bubble model. When the pledgeability is high, the down payment is low, making it easier for leveraged borrowers to invest in the bubbly asset. As loans are packaged together into a competitive pool, the pricing of individual default risk may facilitate risk-taking. In equilibrium, credit-constrained borrowers may ...
Working Paper , Paper 18-11

Report
Republican Home-Owning
Hockett, Robert (2018-10-12)
Ten years after failing and being rescued by our federal government, our nation’s principal secondary market makers in home mortgage loans – Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac – remain in federal receivership. The proximate reason for this is that neither Republicans nor Democrats in Congress have been able to find consensus – interparty or intraparty consensus – on what should be done with our home mortgage GSEs post-crisis. The deeper reason is that public – that is to say, citizen – ownership of secondary market makers in home loans is in a certain sense ‘natural’ in any ...
Community Development Publications and Reports

Report
Ten Years Since the Financial Crisis: Some Lessons for Reducing Risks to Households
Dokko, Jane K.; Dynan, Karen E. (2018-11-30)
Community Development Publications and Reports

Report
Mortgaging Household and Global Financial Stability: To What End?
Emmons, William R.; Kent, Ana Hernández; Ricketts, Lowell R. (2018-11-30)
Debt-financed housing was central to the recent financial crisis and subsequent Great Recession. Millions of leveraged homeowners lost trillions of dollars of wealth and the global financial system nearly collapsed. Our system of highly leveraged homeownership therefore deserves critical scrutiny. At the household level, three key features are involved: 1) A widespread preference and policy support for ownership over renting; 2) External financing exclusively in terms of debt (rather than equity); and 3) A relatively high amount of leverage, especially among ex ante financially vulnerable ...
Community Development Publications and Reports

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