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Working Paper
Making Sense of Increased Synchronization in Global House Prices
Duca, John V. (2019-10-09)
Evidence indicates that house prices have become somewhat more synchronized during this century, likely reflecting more correlated movements in long-term interest rates and macroeconomic cycles that are related to trends in globalization and international portfolio diversification. Nevertheless, the trend toward increased synchronization has not been continuous, reflecting that house prices depend on other fundamentals, which are not uniform across countries or cities. Theory and limited econometric evidence indicate that the more common are fundamentals, the more in-synch house price cycles ...
Working Papers , Paper 1911

Working Paper
What Macroeconomic Conditions Lead Financial Crises?
Kiley, Michael T. (2018-06-15)
Research has suggested that a rapid pace of nonfinancial borrowing reliably precedes financial crises, placing the pace of debt growth at the center of frameworks for the deployment of macroprudential policies. I reconsider the role of asset-prices and current account deficits as leading indicators of financial crises. Run-ups in equity and house prices and a widening of the current account deficit have substantially larger (and more statistically-significant) effects than debt growth on the probability of a financial crisis in standard crisis-prediction models. The analysis highlights the ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2018-038

Working Paper
Explaining Machine Learning by Bootstrapping Partial Marginal Effects and Shapley Values
Cook, Thomas R.; Modig, Zach; Palmer, Nathan M. (2024-09-20)
Machine learning and artificial intelligence are often described as “black boxes.” Traditional linear regression is interpreted through its marginal relationships as captured by regression coefficients. We show that the same marginal relationship can be described rigorously for any machine learning model by calculating the slope of the partial dependence functions, which we call the partial marginal effect (PME). We prove that the PME of OLS is analytically equivalent to the OLS regression coefficient. Bootstrapping provides standard errors and confidence intervals around the point ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2024-075

Working Paper
Fracking and Mortgage Default
Cunningham, Chris; Gerardi, Kristopher S.; Shen, Yannan (2017-03-01)
This paper ?nds that increased hydraulic fracturing, or "fracking," along the Marcellus Formation in Pennsylvania had a signi?cant, negative effect on mortgage credit risk. Controlling for potential endogeneity bias by utilizing the underlying geologic properties of the land as instrumental variables for fracking activity, we ?nd that mortgages originated before the 2007 boom in shale gas, were, post-boom, signi?cantly less likely to default in areas with greater drilling activity. The weight of evidence suggests that the greatest bene?t from fracking came from strengthening the labor ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2017-4

Working Paper
Villains or Scapegoats? The Role of Subprime Borrowers in Driving the U.S. Housing Boom
Gerardi, Kristopher S.; Frame, W. Scott; Conklin, James; Liu, Haoyang (2018-08-01)
An expansion in mortgage credit to subprime borrowers is widely believed to have been a principal driver of the 2002?06 U.S. house price boom. Contrary to this belief, we show that the house price and subprime booms occurred in different places. Counties with the largest home price appreciation between 2002 and 2006 had the largest declines in the share of purchase mortgages to subprime borrowers. We also document that the expansion in speculative mortgage products and underwriting fraud was not concentrated among subprime borrowers.
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2018-10

Discussion Paper
First Impressions Can Be Misleading: Revisions to House Price Changes
Peach, Richard; Tracy, Joseph; Abel, Joshua (2013-03-26)
An assiduous follower of the national house price charts that the New York Fed maintains on its web page may have noticed that we appear to be rewriting history as we update the charts every month. For example, last month we reported that the median twelve-month house price change across all counties for December 2012 was 3.68 percent. However, this month, we indicate that this same median change for December 2012 was instead 3.45 percent. Why the change? Was the earlier reported number a mistake that we simply corrected this month? If not, what explains the revision to the initial report?
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20130326

Working Paper
House Price Responses to Monetary Policy Surprises: Evidence from the U.S. Listings Data
Gorea, Denis; Kryvtsov, Oleksiy; Kudlyak, Marianna (2022-08-05)
Existing literature documents that house prices respond to monetary policy surprises with a significant delay, taking years to reach their peak response. We present new evidence of a much faster response. We exploit information contained in listings for the residential properties for sale in the United States between 2001 and 2019 from the CoreLogic Multiple Listing Service Dataset. Using high-frequency measures of monetary policy shocks, we document that a one standard-deviation contractionary monetary policy surprise lowers housing list prices by 0.2–0.3 percent within two weeks—a ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2022-16

Report
Local Zoning Laws and the Supply of Multifamily Housing in Greater Boston
Sood, Aradhya; Chiumenti, Nicholas (2022-10-01)
Housing affordability is a significant issue in many U.S. metropolitan areas, including Greater Boston. Affordability has always been a major challenge for low-income renters; however, even middle-income families now face considerable affordability hurdles, particularly in metro areas with strong labor markets. Where people live has important implications for their health, schooling, and economic mobility. Researchers and policymakers have devoted attention to the role of land-use practices, such as regulating residential zoning, in creating housing affordability problems, particularly in the ...
New England Public Policy Center Research Report , Paper 22-1

Working Paper
Earthquakes and House Prices: Evidence from Oklahoma
Whitaker, Stephan; Wetherell, Daniel; Cheung, Ron (2016-12-21)
This paper examines the impact of earthquakes on residential property values using sales data from Oklahoma from 2006 to 2014. Before 2010, Oklahoma had only a couple of earthquakes per year that were strong enough to be felt by residents. Since 2010, seismic activity has increased, bring potentially damaging quakes several times each year and perceptible quakes every few days. Using hedonic models, we estimate that prices decline by 3 to 4 percent after a home has experienced a moderate earthquake measuring 4 or 5 on the Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale. Prices can decline up to 9.8 percent ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1631

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