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Working Paper
Disentangling rent index differences: data, methods, and scope
Adams, Brian; Verbrugge, Randal J.; Loewenstein, Lara; Montag, Hugh (2023-09-28)
Rent measurement determines 32 percent of the CPI. Accurate rent measurement is therefore essential for accurate inflation measurement, but the CPI rent index often differs from alternative measures of rent inflation. Using repeat-rent inflation measures created from CPI microdata, we show that this discrepancy is largely explained by differences in rent growth for new tenants relative to all tenants. New-tenant rent inflation provides information about future all-tenant rent inflation, but the use of new-tenant rents is contraindicated in a cost-of-living index such as the CPI. Nevertheless, ...
Working Papers , Paper 22-38R

Working Paper
Fracking and Mortgage Default
Cunningham, Chris; Gerardi, Kristopher S.; Shen, Yannan (2017-03-01)
This paper ?nds that increased hydraulic fracturing, or "fracking," along the Marcellus Formation in Pennsylvania had a signi?cant, negative effect on mortgage credit risk. Controlling for potential endogeneity bias by utilizing the underlying geologic properties of the land as instrumental variables for fracking activity, we ?nd that mortgages originated before the 2007 boom in shale gas, were, post-boom, signi?cantly less likely to default in areas with greater drilling activity. The weight of evidence suggests that the greatest bene?t from fracking came from strengthening the labor ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2017-4

Working Paper
Metropolitan Area Home Prices and the Mortgage Interest Deduction: Estimates and Simulations from Policy Change
Martin, Hal; Hanson, Andrew (2015-10-06)
We simulate changes to metropolitan area home prices from reforming the Mortgage Interest Deduction (MID). Price simulations are based on an extended user cost model that incorporates two dimensions of behavioral change in home buyers: sensitivity of borrowing and the propensity to use tax deductions. We simulate prices with both inelastic and elastic supply. Our results show a wide range of price effects across metropolitan areas and prospective policies. Considering behavioral change and no supply elasticity, eliminating the MID results in average home price declines as steep as 13.5 ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1516

House Hunting in a Period of Social Distancing
Famiglietti, Matthew; Garriga, Carlos (2020-04-01)
Lower housing demand due to quarantine orders, slowing price growth and mortgage originations, and a historically high housing supply are all hitting the economy at the same time.
On the Economy

Report
Local banks, credit supply, and house prices
Blickle, Kristian S. (2018-11-01)
I study the effects of an increase in the supply of local mortgage credit on local house prices and employment by exploiting a natural experiment from Switzerland. In mid-2008, losses in U.S. security holdings triggered a migration of dissatisfied retail customers from a large, universal bank, UBS, to homogeneous local mortgage lenders. Mortgage lenders located close to UBS branches experienced larger inflows of deposits, regardless of their investment opportunities. Using variation in the geographic distance between UBS branches and local mortgage lenders as an instrument for deposit growth, ...
Staff Reports , Paper 874

Working Paper
Villains or Scapegoats? The Role of Subprime Borrowers in Driving the U.S. Housing Boom
Gerardi, Kristopher S.; Frame, W. Scott; Conklin, James; Liu, Haoyang (2018-08-01)
An expansion in mortgage credit to subprime borrowers is widely believed to have been a principal driver of the 2002?06 U.S. house price boom. Contrary to this belief, we show that the house price and subprime booms occurred in different places. Counties with the largest home price appreciation between 2002 and 2006 had the largest declines in the share of purchase mortgages to subprime borrowers. We also document that the expansion in speculative mortgage products and underwriting fraud was not concentrated among subprime borrowers.
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2018-10

Working Paper
Time-varying Persistence of House Price Growth: The Role of Expectations and Credit Supply
Chudik, Alexander; Smallwood, Aaron; Choi, Chi-Young (2024-05-15)
High persistence is a prominent feature of price movements in U.S. housing markets, i.e., house prices grow faster this period if they grew faster last period. This paper provides two additional new insights to the literature on U.S. house price movements. First, there exists a significant time variation in the persistence of house price growth, both at the national and city level. Second, there is considerable heterogeneity in the time-varying persistence across different regions, particularly in areas that were historically less persistent, such as the capital-poor regions in the Midwest ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 426

Working Paper
Public Education and Intergenerational Housing Wealth Effects
Gilraine, Michael; Graham, James; Zheng, Angela (2024-10-11)
While rising house prices are known to benefit existing homeowners, we document a new channel through which house price shocks have intergenerational wealth effects. Using panel data from school zones within a large U.S. school district, we find that higher local house prices lead to improvements in local school quality, thereby increasing children's human capital and future incomes. We quantify this housing wealth channel using an overlapping generations model with neighborhood choice, spatial equilibrium, and endogenous school quality. We find that housing market shocks generate large ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 100

Working Paper
The Good, the Bad, and the Ordinary: Estimating Agent Value-Added Using Real Estate Transactions
Cunningham, Chris; Gerardi, Kristopher S.; Shen, Lily (2022-09-29)
Despite the prevalence and high cost of real estate agents, there is limited empirical evidence as to the nature or efficacy of their services. In this paper we estimate real estate agents’ value-added when either selling or buying homes using data from three large multiple listing services (MLS). We find that homeowners who forgo a conventional real estate agent, but who list their homes on the MLS via a flat fee broker, sell for between 1 and 4 percent more before commission but take longer to sell and are less likely to complete a sale. However, these average effects mask a significant ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2022-11

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