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Working Paper
Firm Entry and Macroeconomic Dynamics: A State-level Analysis
Gourio, François; Messer, Todd; Siemer, Michael (2016-01-31)
Using an annual panel of U.S. states over the period 1982-2014, we estimate the response of macroeconomic variables to a shock to the number of new firms (startups). We find that these shocks have significant effects that persist for many years on real gross domestic product, productivity and population. This is consistent with simple models of firm dynamics where a ?missing generation? of firms affects productivity persistently.
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2016-1

Journal Article
Chained, rested and ready: the new and improved GDP
Kliesen, Kevin L. (1996-01)
The Regional Economist , Issue Jan , Pages 10-11

Journal Article
Productivity in the Twelfth District
Wilson, Daniel J. (2002)
FRBSF Economic Letter

Working Paper
What is the U.S. gross investment in intangibles? (At least) one trillion dollars a year!
Nakamura, Leonard I. (2001)
This paper argues that the rate of intangible investment ? investment in the development and marketing of new products ? accelerated in the wake of the electronics revolution in the 1970s. The paper presents preliminary direct and indirect empirical evidence that US private firms currently invest at least $1 trillion annually in intangibles. This rate of investment roughly equals US gross investment in nonresidential tangible assets. It also suggests that the capital stock of intangibles in the US has an equilibrium market value of at least $5 trillion.
Working Papers , Paper 01-15

Journal Article
Residual Seasonality in GDP Growth Remains after Latest BEA Improvements
Consolvo, Victoria; Lunsford, Kurt Graden (2019-04)
Measuring economic growth is complicated by seasonality, the regular fluctuation in economic activity that depends on the season of the year. The BEA uses statistical techniques to remove seasonality from its estimates of GDP, but some research has indicated that seasonality remains. As a result, the BEA began a three-phase plan in 2015 to improve its seasonal-adjustment techniques, and in July 2018, it completed phase 3. Our analysis indicates that even after these latest improvements by the BEA, residual seasonality in GDP growth remains. On average, this residual seasonality makes GDP ...
Economic Commentary , Issue April

Report
The relationship between the spread and the funds rate
Cohen, Gerald D.; Wenninger, John (1994)
Research Paper , Paper 9408

Journal Article
The business cycle and chain-weighted GDP: has our perspective changed?
Pakko, Michael R. (1997-09)
Our perspective on the U.S. economy's recent performance has been challenged recently by changes in the methodology used to adjust the National Income and Product Accounts for inflation. Michael R. Pakko surveys the changes embodied in the revised data, examining the question of whether or not the revisions alter our view of the overall pattern of economic fluctuations known collectively as the business cycle.
Review , Issue Sep , Pages 39-49

Expected U.S. Macroeconomic Performance during the Pandemic Adjustment Period
Bullard, James B. (2020-03-23)
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard recommends declaring a “National Pandemic Adjustment Period” and discusses three broad goals of macroeconomic policy during this period.
On the Economy

Journal Article
Growth and inflation: a cross-country study
Motley, Brian (1998)
This paper examines the effect of inflation on real growth in a Solow growth model using data from a cross section of countries over a 30-year period. The advantage of using a theoretical model is that it reduces the risk that the results will reflect data-mining. The results suggest that the 5 percentage point reduction in inflation from the 1970s to the 1980s would increase the growth rate of real GDP per head by between 0.1 and 0.5 percentage point. This effect would be worth between 15 percent and 140 percent of one year's income. Even the lower of these projections would be larger than ...
Economic Review

Conference Paper
Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s? comments
Nelson, Charles R. (2000)
Proceedings

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