Journal Article
Pace of GDP Growth, Disinflation Key in U.S. Economic Outlook
Kliesen, Kevin L. (2023-03-02)
The U.S. economy began the year on solid footing, but forecasts of below-trend GDP growth and uncertainty about the pace of disinflation pose risks in 2023.
The Regional Economist

Newsletter
A “Big Data” View of the U.S. Economy: Introducing the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes
Kelley, David; http://fedora:8080/fcrepo/rest/objects/authors/; Brave, Scott A. (2019)
We describe a new set of indexes?the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (BBKI)?constructed from a large panel of monthly macroeconomic time series and quarterly real gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Through August, these indexes suggest that real GDP growth was somewhat below its long-run trend to start the third quarter and that its business cycle component had declined noticeably in recent months despite some indications of improvement in its leading indicators.
Chicago Fed Letter

Newsletter
Economy to Keep Rolling Along in 2016 and Accelerate Slightly in 2017
Strauss, William A.; Friedman, Rebecca (2016)
According to participants in the Chicago Fed?s annual Automotive Outlook Symposium, the nation?s economic growth is forecasted to be near its long-term average this year and to strengthen somewhat in 2017. Inflation is expected to increase in both 2016 and 2017. The unemployment rate is anticipated to edge lower through the end of 2017, reaching 4.8% by then. Light vehicle sales are predicted to be flat, at 17.3 million units, in 2016 and decrease slightly in 2017.
Chicago Fed Letter

COVID-19: What Do FREDcast Users Think about Economic Growth?
Shell, Hannah; Owyang, Michael T.; Bennett, Julie (2020-03-20)
Professional forecasts abound, but what does the general public think will happen with the economy?
On the Economy

Newsletter
What is the Economic Impact of the Slowdown in New Business Formation?
Siemer, Michael; Gourio, Francois; Messer, Todd (2014-09)
Economists have emphasized the importance of ?creative destruction? as an engine of growth. The creative destruction process involves a constant reorganization of the economy as old products, firms, factories, and jobs are replaced by new ones. An important part of this process lies in the opening of new firms or establishments.
Chicago Fed Letter , Issue Sep

Journal Article
A New “Big Data” Index of U.S. Economic Activity
Kelley, David; Butters, R. Andrew; Brave, Scott A. (2019)
The authors present a new ?big data? index of U.S. economic activity that can be used to track business and inflation cycles in real time and estimate monthly real gross domestic product growth.
Economic Perspectives , Issue 1 , Pages 1-30

Convergence or Divergence? A Look at GDP Growth across Richer and Poorer Countries
Ravikumar, B.; Chinagorom-Abiakalam, Dawn; Smaldone, Amy (2024-08-19)
An analysis suggests the divergence in GDP growth per capita among richer and poorer countries has reversed since 2000, implying the latter are now catching up.
On the Economy