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Working Paper
Sovereign Default in the US
Ergungor, O. Emre (2016-04-06)
In the absence of a judicial mechanism to reduce the debt burden of a sovereign member of our Union, the resolution process can be quick but perhaps too indifferent to the health, safety, and welfare of the affected residents. In this paper, I use evidence from the Arkansas state archives to provide a description of the events surrounding the default of the state in 1933. I examine the evolution of the negotiations, the outcomes, and the role of fiscal policy.
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1609

Working Paper
Interbank Connections, Contagion and Bank Distress in the Great Depression
Wheelock, David C.; Jaremski, Matthew; Calomiris, Charles W. (2019-01-01)
Liquidity shocks transmitted through interbank connections contributed to bank distress during the Great Depression. New data on interbank connections reveal that banks were much more likely to close when their correspondents closed. Further, after the Federal Reserve was established, banks? management of cash and capital buffers was less responsive to network risk, suggesting that banks expected the Fed to reduce network risk. Because the Fed?s presence removed the incentives for the most systemically important banks to maintain capital and cash buffers that had protected against liquidity ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-001

Working Paper
Managing Stigma during a Financial Crisis
Anbil, Sriya (2017-02)
How should regulators design effective emergency lending facilities to mitigate stigma during a financial crisis? I explore this question using data from an unexpected disclosure of partial lists of banks that secretly borrowed from the lender of last resort during the Great Depression. I find evidence of stigma in that depositors withdrew more deposits from banks included on the lists in comparison with banks left off the lists. However, stigma dissipated for banks that were revealed earlier after subsequent banks were revealed. Overall, the results suggest that an emergency lending facility ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2017-007

Working Paper
Interbank Markets and Banking Crises: New Evidence on the Establishment and Impact of the Federal Reserve
Wheelock, David C.; Carlson, Mark A. (2015-11-01)
This paper examines the impact of the Federal Reserve?s founding on seasonal pressures and contagion risk in the interbank system. Deposit flows among classes of banks were highly seasonal before 1914; amplitude and timing varied regionally. Panics interrupted normal flows as banks throughout the country sought funds from the central money markets simultaneously. Seasonal pressures and contagion risk in the system were lower by the 1920s, when the Fed provided seasonal liquidity and reserves. Panics returned in the 1930s, due in part to shocks from nonmember banks and because the Fed?s ...
Working Papers , Paper 2015-37

Working Paper
Liquidity from Two Lending Facilities
Anbil, Sriya; Vossmeyer, Angela (2017-12-01)
During financial crises, the lender of last resort (LOLR) uses lending facilities to inject critical funding into the banking sector. The facilities need to be designed in such a way that banks are not reluctant to seek assistance due to stigma and that banks with liquidity concerns are attracted rather than those prone to risk-taking and moral hazard incentives. We use an unexpected disclosure that introduced stigma at one of two similar LOLRs during the Great Depression to evaluate whether banks used LOLR assistance to improve their liquidity needs using a novel trivariate model with ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2017-117

How Does the Pandemic Recession Stack Up against the Great Depression?
Wheelock, David C. (2020-10-19)
The 2020 recession may turn out to be the sharpest, but also the shortest, in modern times and perhaps of all time in the U.S.
On the Economy

Working Paper
Worker and Firm Search in the Labor Market: Evidence from Classified Advertisements
Traum, Nora; Woodward, Greg; Petrosky-Nadeau, Nicolas; Bi, Huixin (2025-07-16)
We present new monthly city-level and national measures of worker and firm search from 1900 to 1938, derived from scanned images of U.S. newspapers. To our knowledge, we are the first to systematically use the “situations-wanted” advertisements placed by job seekers. We document fresh insights into early 20th-century labor market dynamics: (1) worker and firm search efforts are procyclical; (2) posting costs affectadvertising behavior and labor search intensity; (3) the Beveridge curve is stable over the last 125 years, with similar shifts following the 1918 flu and Covid-19 pandemic; and ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 25-07

How to Achieve a V-Shaped Recovery amid the COVID-19 Pandemic
Wen, Yi; Reinbold, Brian (2020-05-29)
Contrasting the Great Depression and Great Recession recoveries helps show how GDP levels and growth rates can respond to different levels of policy responses.
On the Economy

Discussion Paper
The Value of Opacity in a Banking Crisis
Anderson, Haelim; Copeland, Adam (2020-04-02)
During moments of heightened economic uncertainty, authorities often need to decide on how much information to disclose. For example, during crisis periods, we often observe regulators limiting access to bank‑level information with the goal of restoring the public's confidence in banks. Thus, information management often plays a central role in ending financial crises. Despite the perceived importance of managing information about individual banks during a financial crisis, we are not aware of any empirical work that quantifies the effect of such policies. In this blog post, we highlight ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200402

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