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Journal Article
Rethinking Global Value Chains During COVID-19: Part 2
Recent research shows that GVCs played a large role in the propagation of foreign shocks on U.S. industries.
Journal Article
Rethinking Global Value Chains During COVID-19: Part 1
GVCs can make final goods production less costly and more efficient, but they are not without risks.
Journal Article
Global Value Chains and U.S. Economic Activity During COVID-19
We investigate the role of global value chains in the declines of manufacturing employment and output in the U.S. during COVID-19. Specifically, we identify the role of global value chains by exploiting heterogeneity across industries in cross-country sourcing patterns and its interaction with exogenous cross-country variation in the containment policies introduced to combat the virus. We find that global value chains played a significant role in the decline of output and employment across U.S. manufactures. Moreover, we find a modest impact of diversifying or renationalizing global value ...
Working Paper
The Dollar and Emerging Market Economies: Financial Vulnerabilities Meet the International Trade System
This paper shows that dollar appreciations lead to declines in GDP, investment, and credit to the private sector in emerging market economies (EMEs). These results imply that the transmission of dollar movements to EMEs occurs mainly through financial conditions rather than net exports, contrary to what would be expected from the conventional Mundell-Fleming model. Moreover, the central role of the U.S. dollar in global trade invoicing and financing - the dominant currency paradigm - and the increased integration of EMEs into international supply chains weaken the traditional trade channel. ...
Investigating the U.S. Reliance on Foreign Suppliers
As the global production process becomes more fragmented, certain U.S. sectors have come to depend more heavily on foreign suppliers.
Report
Trade Uncertainty and U.S. Bank Lending
This paper uses U.S. loan-level credit register data and the 2018–2019 Trade War to test for the effects of international trade uncertainty on domestic credit supply. We exploit cross-sectional heterogeneity in banks’ ex-ante exposure to trade uncertainty and find that an increase in trade uncertainty is associated with a contraction in bank lending to all firms irrespective of the uncertainty that the firms face. This baseline result holds for lending at the intensive and extensive margins. We document two channels underlying the estimated credit supply effect: a wait-and-see channel by ...