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Reopening the U.S.: Gauging the Trend of COVID-19 Transmissions
Mather, Ryan; Vandenbroucke, Guillaume; Ravikumar, B. (2020-04-28)
An analysis suggests that counties accounting for the vast bulk of U.S. GDP aren’t yet seeing a downward trajectory in COVID-19 cases, but growth rates have generally slowed.
On the Economy

For Poor Countries, Gains in Education Are Not Matched in Income
Vandenbroucke, Guillaume; Peake, Makenzie (2020-09-15)
Poor countries are narrowing the education gap with rich countries, but not the gap in GDP per capita.
On the Economy

Newsletter
Minding the Output Gap: What Is Potential GDP and Why Does It Matter?
Wolla, Scott A. (2021-05-03)
Potential output is an estimate of what the economy could produce. Actual output is what the economy does produce. If actual is below potential -- a negative output gap -- there is "slack" in the economy. If actual is above potential -- a positive output gap -- resources are fully employed, or perhaps overutilized. This issue of Page One Economics explains how the output gap is useful for checking the health of the economy. It also points out how errors in the estimation of potential real GDP can reduce the effectiveness of policy.
Page One Economics Newsletter

Speech
An Economic Outlook - Main Line Chamber of Commerce
Harker, Patrick T. (2017-01-12)
Inflation, GDP growth, and the labor market are ?displaying considerable strength? and indicate a robust American economy, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick T. Harker said today in remarks to the Main Line Chamber of Commerce.
Speech , Paper 127

Speech
IL Wesleyan University Associates Business Luncheon
Evans, Charles L. (2010-05-14)
Remarks for the IL Wesleyan University Associates Business Luncheon, May 14, 2010 Bloomington, IN
Speech , Paper 40

Working Paper
“Free” Internet Content: Web 1.0, Web 2.0, and the Sources of Economic Growth
Soloveichik, Rachel; Nakamura, Leonard I.; Samuels, Jon (2018-05-24)
The Internet has evolved from Web 1.0, with static web pages and limited interactivity, to Web 2.0, with dynamic content that relies on user engagement. This change increased production costs significantly, but the price charged for Internet content has generally remained the same: zero. Because no transaction records the ?purchase? of this content, its value is not reflected in measured growth and productivity. To capture the contribution of the ?free? Internet, we model the provision of ?free? content as a barter transaction between the content users and the content creators, and we value ...
Working Papers , Paper 18-17

Working Paper
Measuring the “Free” Digital Economy Within the GDP and Productivity Accounts
Soloveichik, Rachel; Nakamura, Leonard I.; Samuels, Jon (2017-10-23)
We develop an experimental methodology that values ?free? digital content through the lens of a production account and is consistent with the framework of the national accounts. We build upon the work in Nakamura, et al. (2016) by combining marketing- and advertising-supported content and find that the impact of ?free? digital content on U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) has accelerated in recent years, particularly since 2005. However, the explosion in ?free? digital content is partially offset by a decrease in ?free? print content like newspapers. Including these, real GDP growth would grow ...
Working Papers , Paper 17-37

Journal Article
Inflation Remains Wild Card in U.S. GDP Outlook for 2022
Kliesen, Kevin L. (2021-12-20)
Forecasters are projecting strong U.S. GDP growth in 2022. But if higher inflation persists and further erodes household purchasing power, that could put this growth at risk.
The Regional Economist

Discussion Paper
How Much Have Consumers Spent on Imports during the Pandemic?
Higgins, Matthew; Klitgaard, Thomas (2021-10-22)
The return of U.S. real GDP to its pre-pandemic level in the second quarter of this year was driven by consumer spending on goods. Such spending was well above its pre-pandemic path, while spending on services was well below. Despite the surge in goods spending, domestic manufacturing has increased only modestly, leaving most of the increase in demand being filled by imports. While higher imports have been a drag on growth, the size of this drag has been moderated by the value created by the domestic transportation, wholesale, and retail sectors in selling these goods. Going forward, a ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20211022

Discussion Paper
Is Chinese Growth Overstated?
Sala-i-Martin, Xavier X.; Clark, Hunter L.; Camacho, Maximo (2017-04-19)
For analysts of the Chinese economy, questions about the accuracy of the country’s official GDP data are a frequent source of angst, leading many to seek guidance from alternative indicators. These nonofficial gauges often suggest Beijing’s growth figures are exaggerated, but that conclusion is not supported by our analysis, which draws upon satellite measurements of the intensity of China’s nighttime light emissions—a good proxy for GDP growth that is presumably not subject to whatever measurement errors may affect the country’s official economic statistics.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20170419

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