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Briefing
Projecting Unemployment and Demographic Trends
Demographic forces have profoundly shaped the dynamics of U.S. labor force participation and unemployment over the past forty years. Recognizing the importance of these employment indicators for the conduct of monetary policy, this Economic Brief explores how they have been influenced by the U.S. population's changing gender, educational, and age profile. Based on the authors' estimates, the trend U.S. unemployment rate will decline to 4.3 percent over the next ten years as the population continues to age and increase its educational attainment.
Newsletter
Minding the Output Gap: What Is Potential GDP and Why Does It Matter?
Potential output is an estimate of what the economy could produce. Actual output is what the economy does produce. If actual is below potential -- a negative output gap -- there is "slack" in the economy. If actual is above potential -- a positive output gap -- resources are fully employed, or perhaps overutilized. This issue of Page One Economics explains how the output gap is useful for checking the health of the economy. It also points out how errors in the estimation of potential real GDP can reduce the effectiveness of policy.