Search Results

(refine search)

SORT BY: PREVIOUS / NEXT

All:
Title:
Author:
Abstract:
Keywords:

+ Add Search Parameter

Working Paper
Living Up to Expectations: The Effectiveness of Forward Guidance and Inflation Dynamics Post-Global Financial Crisis
Martínez García, Enrique; Sims, Eric; Cole, Stephen J. (2025-04-03)
This paper studies the effectiveness of forward guidance when central banks face private agents with heterogeneous expectations allowing for a degree of bounded rationality. Exploiting unique survey-based measures of expected inflation, output growth and interest rates, we estimate a small-scale New Keynesian model with forward guidance shocks for the United States and the other G7 countries plus Spain. We find that the share of fully-informed rational expectations (FIRE) agents in aggregate expectations is similar for the U.S., the U.K., Germany and other major advanced economies (albeit far ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 424

Speech
'Normal' monetary policy in words and deeds: remarks at Columbia University, School of International and Public Affairs, New York City
Williams, John C. (2018-09-28)
Remarks at Columbia University, School of International and Public Affairs, New York City.
Speech , Paper 292

Working Paper
The dollar during the global recession: US monetary policy and the exorbitant duty
Tang, Jenny; Stavrakeva, Vania (2018-10-01)
We document that during the Global Recession, US monetary policy easings triggered the ?exorbitant duty? of the United States, the issuer of the world?s dominant currency, by causing a dollar appreciation and a transfer of wealth from the United States to the rest of the world. This dollar appreciation runs counter to the predictions of standard macroeconomic models and works through two channels: (i) a flight-to-safety effect which lowered the expected excess returns of holding safe US government debt relative to foreign debt and (ii) lowered expected future inflation in the United States ...
Working Papers , Paper 18-10

Journal Article
Monetary Policy Stance Is Tighter than Federal Funds Rate
Choi, Jason; Doh, Taeyoung; Foerster, Andrew; Martinez, Zinnia (2022-11-07)
The Federal Reserve’s use of forward guidance and balance sheet policy means that monetary policy consists of more than changing the federal funds rate target. A proxy federal funds rate that incorporates data from financial markets can help assess the broader stance of monetary policy. This proxy measure shows that, since late 2021, monetary policy has been substantially tighter than the federal funds rate indicates. Tightening financial conditions are similar to what would be expected if the funds rate had exceeded 5¼% by September 2022.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2022 , Issue 30 , Pages 5

Speech
Comments on “A Skeptical View of the Impact of the Fed’s Balance Sheet”: remarks at the 2018 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum, New York City
Dudley, William (2018-02-23)
Remarks at the 2018 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum, New York City.
Speech , Paper 275

Working Paper
Quantifying Forward Guidance and Yield Curve Control
Koeda, Junko; Wei, Bin (2024-09-23)
This study evaluates the effectiveness of Japan's unconventional monetary policies over the past quarter century within a unified term structure framework. It specifically examines the impact of the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) outcome-based forward guidance and yield curve control (YCC) and incorporates other policy types into the framework. The findings show that the BOJ’s forward guidance and YCC have both had a significant impact on the shadow rate. Forward guidance accounted for most of the policy impact in the early stages of unconventional monetary policies and remained influential ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2024-8

Report
An interest rate rule to uniquely implement the optimal equilibrium in a liquidity trap
Zabai, Anna; Duarte, Fernando M. (2015-10-01)
We propose a new interest rate rule that implements the optimal equilibrium and eliminates all indeterminacy in a canonical New Keynesian model in which the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates (ZLB) is binding. The rule commits to zero nominal interest rates for a length of time that increases in proportion to how much past inflation has deviated?either upward or downward?from its optimal level. Once outside the ZLB, interest rates follow a standard Taylor rule. Following the Taylor principle outside the ZLB is neither necessary nor sufficient to ensure uniqueness of equilibria. ...
Staff Reports , Paper 745

Working Paper
Forward Guidance and Its Effectiveness: A Macro Finance Shadow-Rate Framework
Koeda, Junko; Wei, Bin (2023-10-16)
Forward guidance provides monetary policy communication for an economy at the effective lower bound (ELB). In this paper, we consider both calendar- and outcome-based forward guidance about the timing of liftoff. We develop a novel macro-finance shadow rate term structure model by introducing unspanned macro factors and an outcome-based liftoff condition. We estimate the model using the maximum likelihood method with extended Kalman filter. Based on the estimation results, we show that outcome-based forward guidance is indeed effective and has significant monetary-easing effects on the real ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2023-16

Working Paper
The Effects of the Federal Reserve Chair’s Testimony on Interest Rates and Stock Prices
Gordon, Matthew V.; Lunsford, Kurt Graden (2023-11-13)
We study how congressional testimony about monetary policy by the Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System affects interest rates and stock prices. First, we study testimony associated with the Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy Reports (MPRs) to Congress. Testimony for a particular MPR is usually given on two days, one day for each chamber of Congress. We separately study the first day and second day of MPR testimony. We also study testimonies not associated with MPRs but that are still related to monetary policy. We find that first-day MPR testimonies cause the largest ...
Working Papers , Paper 23-26

show more (1)

show more (28)

PREVIOUS / NEXT

Fed in Print

Search Results

FILTER BY year

FILTER BY Bank

FILTER BY Series

FILTER BY Content Type

FILTER BY Author

FILTER BY Jel Classification

FILTER BY Keywords