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Working Paper
Monetary Policy and Economic Performance since the Financial Crisis
Gagnon, Etienne; Caldara, Dario; Martínez García, Enrique; Neely, Christopher J. (2020-08)
We review macroeconomic performance over the period since the Global Financial Crisis and the challenges in the pursuit of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate. We characterize the use of forward guidance and balance sheet policies after the federal funds rate reached the effective lower bound. We also review the evidence on the efficacy of these tools and consider whether policymakers might have used them more forcefully. Finally, we examine the post-crisis experience of other major central banks with these policy tools.
Working Papers , Paper 2020-026

Working Paper
Delphic and Odyssean Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from the Euro Area
Ferroni, Filippo; Andrade, Philippe (2018-07-26)
We use financial intraday data to identify monetary policy surprises in the euro area. We find that monetary policy statements and press conferences after European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council meetings convey information that moves the yield curve far out. Moreover, the nature of the information revealed in a narrow window around these statements and press conferences evolved over time. Until 2013, unexpected variations in future interest rates were positively correlated with the changes in market-based measure of inflation expectations consistent with news on future macroeconomic ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2018-12

Speech
Remarks at the 42nd Annual Central Banking Seminar, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City
Williams, John C. (2018-10-01)
Remarks at the 42nd Annual Central Banking Seminar, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City.
Speech , Paper 293

Working Paper
Forward Guidance and Its Effectiveness: A Macro Finance Shadow-Rate Framework
Koeda, Junko; Wei, Bin (2023-10-16)
Forward guidance provides monetary policy communication for an economy at the effective lower bound (ELB). In this paper, we consider both calendar- and outcome-based forward guidance about the timing of liftoff. We develop a novel macro-finance shadow rate term structure model by introducing unspanned macro factors and an outcome-based liftoff condition. We estimate the model using the maximum likelihood method with extended Kalman filter. Based on the estimation results, we show that outcome-based forward guidance is indeed effective and has significant monetary-easing effects on the real ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2023-16

Journal Article
Monetary Policy Stance Is Tighter than Federal Funds Rate
Choi, Jason; Doh, Taeyoung; Foerster, Andrew; Martinez, Zinnia (2022-11-07)
The Federal Reserve’s use of forward guidance and balance sheet policy means that monetary policy consists of more than changing the federal funds rate target. A proxy federal funds rate that incorporates data from financial markets can help assess the broader stance of monetary policy. This proxy measure shows that, since late 2021, monetary policy has been substantially tighter than the federal funds rate indicates. Tightening financial conditions are similar to what would be expected if the funds rate had exceeded 5¼% by September 2022.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2022 , Issue 30 , Pages 5

Speech
'Normal' monetary policy in words and deeds: remarks at Columbia University, School of International and Public Affairs, New York City
Williams, John C. (2018-09-28)
Remarks at Columbia University, School of International and Public Affairs, New York City.
Speech , Paper 292

Working Paper
The Macroeconomic Effects of the Federal Reserve's Unconventional Monetary Policies
Engen, Eric M.; Laubach, Thomas; Reifschneider, David L. (2015-01-14)
After reaching the effective lower bound for the federal funds rate in late 2008, the Federal Reserve turned to two unconventional policy tools--quantitative easing and increasingly explicit and forward-leaning guidance for the future path of the federal funds rate--in order to provide additional monetary policy accommodation. We use survey data from the Blue Chip Economic Indicators to infer changes in private-sector perceptions of the implicit interest rate rule that the Federal Reserve would use following liftoff from the effective lower bound. Using our estimates of the changes over time ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2015-5

Journal Article
What Is the Monetary Standard? The Fed Should Tell Us
Hetzel, Robert L. (2024-01-05)
The Federal Reserve System (Fed) is a regular feature in the media. When the Fed communicates with the public, its focus is on forward guidance related to monetary policy—specifically, for achieving low unemployment and low inflation. Fed participants on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) convey what they see as the likely path of policy, including changes in the federal funds rate, a standard monetary policy tool. Because financial markets find this information useful, news stories thoroughly cover Fed communication.However, such communication fails to explain the structure of the ...
Review , Volume 106 , Issue 1 , Pages 10-39

Report
The forward guidance puzzle
Patterson, Christina; Giannoni, Marc; Del Negro, Marco (2012)
With short-term interest rates at the zero lower bound, forward guidance has become a key tool for central bankers, and yet we know little about its effectiveness. This paper first empirically documents the impact of forward guidance announcements on a broad cross section of financial markets data and professional forecasts. We find that Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements containing forward guidance had heterogeneous effects depending on the other content of the statement. We show that once we control for these other elements, forward guidance had, on average, positive and ...
Staff Reports , Paper 574

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