Search Results
COVID-19 and Financial Distress: Vulnerability to Infection and Death
Although COVID-19 initially spread faster in areas with low financial distress, evidence suggests that infections may spread most rapidly in highly financially distressed areas moving forward.
Working Paper
Does education loan debt influence household financial distress? An assessment using the 2007-09 SCF Panel
This paper uses the recent 2007-09 SCF panel to examine the influence of student loans on financial distress. Families with student loans in 2007 have higher levels of financial distress than families without such loans, and these families were more susceptible to transitions to financial distress during the early stages of the Great Recession. This correlation persists once we control for a host of other demographic, work-status, and household balance sheet measures. Families with an average level of student loans were 3.1 percentage points more likely to be 60 days late paying bills and 3 ...
Working Paper
Debtor Fraud in Consumer Debt Renegotiation
We study how forcing financially distressed consumer debtors to repay a larger fraction of debt can lead them to misreport data fraudulently. Using a plausibly exogenous policy change that required debtors to increase repayment to creditors, we document that debtors manipulated data to avoid higher repayment. Consistent with deliberate fraud, data manipulators traveled farther to find more lenient insolvency professionals who, historically, approved more potentially fraudulent filings. Finally, we find that those debtors who misreported income had a lower probability of default on their debt ...
Working Paper
The Effects of Wildfire and Distant Air Pollution on Household Financial Well-Being
While exposure to wildfire smoke is adverse to human health, little is known about related impacts on household economics. In this paper, we link granular wildfire burn, smoke plume, air pollution, and consumer credit data to estimate the impact of extreme wildfire and related dispersed air pollution effects on consumer financial health. We find material effects including increased credit card and personal loan delinquencies among households distant from the burn perimeter but exposed to high levels of pollution. Further analysis of confidential supervisory data reveals elevated spending and ...
Working Paper
Firm Exit and Liquidity: Evidence from the Great Recession
This paper studies the role of credit constraints in accounting for the dynamics of firm exit during the Great Recession. We present novel firm-level evidence on the role of credit constraints on exit behavior during the Great Recession. Firms in financial distress, with tighter access to credit, are more likely to default than firms with more access to credit. This difference widened substantially in the Great Recession while, in contrast, default rates did not vary much by size, age, or productivity. We identify conditions under which standard models of firms subject to financial frictions ...
Working Paper
Extreme Wildfires, Distant Air Pollution, and Household Financial Health
We link detailed wildfire burn, satellite smoke plume, and ground-level pollution data to estimate the effects of extreme wildfire and related smoke and air pollution events on housing and consumer financial outcomes. Findings provide novel evidence of elevated spending, indebtedness, and loan delinquencies among households distant from the burn perimeter but exposed to high levels of wildfire-attributed air pollution. Results also show higher levels of financial distress among renters in the burn zone, particularly those with lower credit scores. Financial distress among homeowners within ...
Working Paper
Does the Relative Income of Peers Cause Financial Distress? Evidence from Lottery Winners and Neighboring Bankruptcies
SUPERSEDED BY WP 18-22 We examine whether relative income differences among peers can generate financial distress. Using lottery winnings as plausibly exogenous variations in the relative income of peers, we find that the dollar magnitude of a lottery win of one neighbor increases subsequent borrowing and bankruptcies among other neighbors. We also examine which factors may mitigate lenders? bankruptcy risk in these neighborhoods. We show that bankruptcy filers can obtain secured but not unsecured debt, and lenders provide secured credit to low-risk but not high-risk debtors. In addition, we ...
Journal Article
The Evolving Relationship between COVID-19 and Financial Distress.
During most of the COVID-19 pandemic, regions with high financial distress saw disproportionately more infections and deaths than regions with low financial distress. As of February 2021, cumulative infections appear more evenly distributed. However, total deaths remain higher in financially distressed regions.
Working Paper
Financial Distress and Macroeconomic Risks*
This paper investigates how, and how much, household financial distress (FD), arising from allowing debts to go unpaid, matters for the aggregate and cross-sectional consumption responses to macroeconomic risk. Through a battery of structural models, we show that FD can affect consumption responses through three channels: (1) as another margin of adjustment to shocks (direct channel); (2) because its persistence implies a significant degree of preference heterogeneity (indirect channel); and (3) because it can exacerbate macroeconomic risks whenever it is more severe in the hardest-hit ...
Working Paper
Earnings Misperceptions and Household Distress
Households learn whether income changes are temporary or persistent from the history of their own paychecks. This paper develops a quantitative model of household financial distress that incorporates this inference and uses survey data on income expectations to estimate the extent to which households overweight recent outcomes—diagnostic expectations. The model improves on the standard full-information, rational-expectations benchmark in two key dimensions: it explains financial distress without assuming extreme impatience, and it more accurately captures the empirical correlation between ...