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Journal Article
The FHA and the GSEs as countercyclical tools in the mortgage markets
Sherlund, Shane M.; Passmore, Wayne (2018-24-03)
The authors examine the connection between government mortgage programs and economic outcomes during and after the financial crisis. They find a strong correlation between counties that participated more heavily in Federal Housing Administration (FHA)/Veterans Affairs (VA) and government-sponsored enterprise (GSE) mortgage lending before the crisis and better economic outcomes during and after the crisis. Although the financial crisis was a substantial shock to all counties, those more reliant on FHA/VA or GSE lending experienced smaller increases in unemployment rates; smaller declines in ...
Economic Policy Review , Issue 24-3 , Pages 28-40

Working Paper
The S-curve: Understanding the Dynamics of Worldwide Financial Liberalization
Li, Nan; Papageorgiou, Chris; Zha, Tao (2021-07-13)
Using a novel database of domestic financial reforms in 90 countries from 1973 to 2014, we document that global financial liberalization followed an S-curve path: reforms were slow and gradual in early periods, accelerated during the 1990s, and slowed down after 2000. We estimate a learning model that explains these dynamics. Policymakers updated their beliefs about the growth effects of financial reforms by learning from their own and other countries' experiences. Positive growth surprises in advanced economies helped accelerate belief updating worldwide, leading to the global wave of ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2021-19

Report
LIBOR: origins, economics, crisis, scandal, and reform
Hou, David; Skeie, David R. (2014-03-01)
The London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) is a widely used indicator of funding conditions in the interbank market. As of 2013, LIBOR underpins more than $300 trillion of financial contracts, including swaps and futures, in addition to trillions more in variable-rate mortgage and student loans. LIBOR's volatile behavior during the financial crisis provoked questions surrounding its credibility. Ongoing regulatory investigations have uncovered misconduct by a number of financial institutions. Policymakers across the globe now face the task of reforming LIBOR in the aftermath of the scandal and ...
Staff Reports , Paper 667

Speech
Recurring Themes for the New Year
Evans, Charles L. (2014-01-15)
A speech delivered on January 15, 2014, at the Corridor Economic Forecast Luncheon in Coralville, IA.
Speech , Paper 2

Journal Article
Bubbles and Fools
Barlevy, Gadi (2015-04)
This article reviews the literature on greater-fool theories of bubbles, which argue that bubbles can arise if traders are willing to buy assets they know to be overvalued because they hope to later sell them at a profit to others. The author discusses two approaches that attempt to model this phenomenon and what these approaches imply for economic policy.
Economic Perspectives , Issue Q II

Discussion Paper
Measuring the Financial Stability Real Interest Rate, r**
Akinci, Ozge; Benigno, Gianluca; Del Negro, Marco; Nourbash, Ethan; Queraltó, Albert (2023-05-24)
Comparing our financial stability real interest rate, r** (“r-double-star”) with the prevailing real interest rate gives a measure of how vulnerable the economy is to financial instability. In this post, we first explain how r** can be measured, and then discuss its evolution over the last fifty years and how to interpret the recent banking turmoil within this framework.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20230524

Working Paper
Bank Failure, Relationship Lending, and Local Economic Performance
Kandrac, John (2014-05-23)
Whether bank failures have adverse effects on local economies is an important question for which there is conflicting and relatively scarce evidence. In this study, I use county-level data to examine the effect of bank failures and resolutions on local economies. Using quasi-experimental techniques as well as cross-sectional variation in bank failures, I show that recent bank failures lead to lower income and compensation growth, higher poverty rates, and lower employment. Additionally, I find that the structure of bank resolution appears to be important. Resolutions that include loss-sharing ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2014-41

Working Paper
Reducing Strategic Default in a Financial Crisis
Agarwal, Sumit; Scholnick, Barry; Zhang, Man; Mikhed, Slava (2022-08-24)
We document that increasing penalties for default reduces strategic default in financial crises by exploiting the 2009 changes to Canadian consumer insolvency regulations. Our novelty is that the incentives from increasing penalties for default operate in the opposite direction from incentives in more typical financial crisis policy interventions, which increase the liquidity of debtors. We can identify strategic default because our policy intervention is independent of debtors’ liquidity and initial selection into long-term debt contracts. Our results imply that even insolvent debtors can ...
Working Papers , Paper 21-36

Working Paper
Firm Entry and Employment Dynamics in the Great Recession
Siemer, Michael (2014-07-30)
The 2007-2009 recession is characterized by: a large drop in employment, an unprecedented decline in firm entry, and a slow recovery. Using confidential firm-level data, I show that financial constraints reduced employment growth in small relative to large firms by 4.8 to 10.5 percentage points. The effect of financial constraints is robust to controlling for aggregate demand and is particularly strong in small young firms. I show in a heterogeneous firms model with endogenous firm entry and financial constraints that a large financial shock results in a long-lasting recession caused by a ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2014-56

Working Paper
Bond Insurance and Public Sector Employment
Amornsiripanitch, Natee (2022-02-07)
This paper uses a unique data set of local governments’ bond issuance, expenditure, and employment to study the impact of the monoline insurance industry’s demise on local governments’ operations. To show causality, I use an instrumental variable approach that exploits persistent insurance relationships and the cross-sectional variation in insurers’ exposure to high-quality residential mortgage-backed securities. Governments associated with ailing insurers issued less debt, cut expenditures, and hired fewer workers. These effects are persistent. Partial equilibrium calculations show ...
Working Papers , Paper 22-03

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