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Working Paper
Bank Ownership, Lending, and Local Economic Performance During the 2008-2010 Financial Crisis
Feler, Leo; Coleman, Nicholas (2014-03-05)
While the finance literature often equates government banks with political capture and capital misallocation, these banks can help mitigate financial shocks. This paper examines the role of Brazil?s government banks in preventing a recession during the 2008-2010 financial crisis. Government banks in Brazil provided more credit, which offset declines in lending by private banks. Areas in Brazil with a high share of government banks experienced increases in lending, production, and employment during the crisis compared to areas with a low share of these banks. We find no evidence that lending ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1099

Working Paper
International financial integration, crises, and monetary policy: evidence from the euro area interbank crises
Peydro, Jose Luis; Fecht, Falko; Bräuning, Falk; Abbassi, Puriya (2017-07-01)
We analyze how financial crises affect international financial integration, exploiting euro area proprietary interbank data, crisis and monetary policy shocks, and variation in loan terms to the same borrower on the same day by domestic versus foreign lenders. Crisis shocks reduce the supply of crossborder liquidity, with stronger volume effects than pricing effects, thereby impairing international financial integration. On the extensive margin, there is flight to home ? but this is independent of quality. On the intensive margin, however, GIPS-headquartered debtor banks suffer in the Lehman ...
Working Papers , Paper 17-6

Working Paper
How New Fed Corporate Bond Programs Dampened the Financial Accelerator in the COVID-19 Recession
Bordo, Michael D.; Duca, John V. (2020-11-19)
In the financial crisis and recession induced by the COVID-19 pandemic, many investment-grade firms became unable to borrow from securities markets. In response, the Fed not only reopened its commercial paper funding facility but also announced it would purchase newly issued and seasoned bonds of corporations rated as investment grade before the COVID pandemic. A careful splicing of different unemployment rate series enables us to assess the effectiveness of recent Fed interventions in these long-term debt markets over long sample periods, spanning the Great Depression, Great Recession and ...
Working Papers , Paper 2029

Report
Uncertain booms and fragility
Lee, Michael Junho (2018-07-23)
I develop a framework of the buildup and outbreak of financial crises in an asymmetric information setting. In equilibrium, two distinct economic states arise endogenously: ?normal times,? periods of modest investment, and ?booms,? periods of expansionary investment. Normal times occur when the intermediary sector realizes moderate investment opportunities. Booms occur when the intermediary sector realizes many investment opportunities, but also occur when it realizes very few opportunities. As a result, investors face greater uncertainty in booms. During a boom, subsequent arrival of ...
Staff Reports , Paper 861

Treasuries’ allure as safe haven noted in short maturities, not in long bonds
Davis, J. Scott (2023-06-27)
The United States has a large negative net-foreign-asset position, especially in safe assets. In times of crisis, U.S. government debt, especially short-term Treasuries, are viewed as a safe haven. As a result, the U.S. is a net debtor. It is more leveraged and tends to hold more risky assets (mostly equities) and finance those positions by selling safe-asset debt to the rest of the world.
Dallas Fed Economics

Discussion Paper
How (Un-)Informed Are Depositors in a Banking Panic? A Lesson from History
Blickle, Kristian S.; Brunnermeier, Markus K.; Luck, Stephan (2022-02-17)
How informed or uninformed are bank depositors in a banking crisis? Can depositors anticipate which banks will fail? Understanding the behavior of depositors in financial crises is key to evaluating the policy measures, such as deposit insurance, designed to prevent them. But this is difficult in modern settings. The fact that bank runs are rare and deposit insurance universal implies that it is rare to be able to observe how depositors would behave in absence of the policy. Hence, as empiricists, we are lacking the counterfactual of depositor behavior during a run that is undistorted by the ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20220217

Report
Financial Stability Considerations for Monetary Policy: Empirical Evidence and Challenges
Boyarchenko, Nina; Favara, Giovanni; Schularick, Moritz (2022-02-01)
This paper reviews literature on the empirical relationship between vulnerabilities in the financial system and the macroeconomy, and how monetary policy affects that connection. Financial vulnerabilities build up over time, with both risk appetite and risk taking rising during economic expansions. To some extent, financial crises are predictable and have severe real economic consequences when they occur. Empirically it is difficult to link monetary policy to financial vulnerabilities, in part because financial cycles have long durations, making it difficult to separate effects of changes in ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1003

Working Paper
Loose Monetary Policy and Financial Instability
Grimm, Maximilian; Jordà, Òscar; Schularick, Moritz; Taylor, Alan M. (2023-02-06)
Do periods of persistently loose monetary policy increase financial fragility and the likelihood of a financial crisis? This is a central question for policymakers, yet the literature does not provide systematic empirical evidence about this link at the aggregate level. In this paper we fill this gap by analyzing long run historical data. We find that when the stance of monetary policy is accommodative over an extended period, the likelihood of financial turmoil down the road increases considerably. We investigate the causal pathways that lead to this result and argue that credit creation and ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2023-06

Discussion Paper
Why Do Banks Fail? The Predictability of Bank Failures
Correia, Sergio A.; Luck, Stephan; Verner, Emil (2024-11-22)
Can bank failures be predicted before they happen? In a previous post, we established three facts about failing banks that indicated that failing banks experience deteriorating fundamentals many years ahead of their failure and across a broad range of institutional settings. In this post, we document that bank failures are remarkably predictable based on simple accounting metrics from publicly available financial statements that measure a bank’s insolvency risk and funding vulnerabilities.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20241122

Emerging-market countries insulate themselves from Fed rate hikes
Davis, J. Scott; Sagnanert, Pon (2023-08-08)
Earlier episodes of sizable Fed tightening preceded destabilizing currency devaluations in emerging markets, precipitating sovereign debt and banking crises in many of those economies
Dallas Fed Economics

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