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Speech
Financial conditions and the monetary policy outlook
Logan, Lorie (2023-10-09)
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan delivered these remarks before the 65th National Association for Business Economics Annual Meeting in Dallas, Texas.
Speeches and Essays

Working Paper
When is Bad News Good News? U.S. Monetary Policy, Macroeconomic News, and Financial Conditions in Emerging Markets
Hoek, Jasper; Kamin, Steven B.; Yoldas, Emre (2020-01-31)
Rises in U.S. interest rates are often thought to generate adverse spillovers to emerging market economies (EMEs). We show that what appears to be bad news for EMEs might actually be good news, or at least not-so-bad news, depending on the source of the rise in U.S. interest rates. We present evidence that higher U.S. interest rates stemming from stronger U.S. growth generate only modest spillovers, while those stemming from a more hawkish Fed policy stance or inflationary pressures can lead to significant tightening of EME financial conditions. Our identification of the sources of U.S. rate ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1269

Report
Monetary policy and financial conditions: a cross-country study
Grinberg, Federico; Duarte, Fernando M.; Mancini-Griffoli, Tommaso; Adrian, Tobias (2019-06-01)
Loose financial conditions forecast high output growth and low output volatility up to six quarters into the future, generating time-varying downside risk to the output gap, which we measure by GDP-at-Risk (GaR). This finding is robust across countries, conditioning variables, and time periods. We study the implications for monetary policy in a reduced-form New Keynesian model with financial intermediaries that are subject to a Value at Risk (VaR) constraint. Optimal monetary policy depends on the magnitude of downside risk to GDP, as it impacts the consumption-savings decision via the Euler ...
Staff Reports , Paper 890

Report
Monetary policy, financial conditions, and financial stability
Liang, J. Nellie; Adrian, Tobias (2014-09-01)
We review a growing literature that incorporates endogenous risk premiums and risk taking in the conduct of monetary policy. Accommodative policy can create an intertemporal trade-off between improving current financial conditions and increasing future financial vulnerabilities. In the United States, structural and cyclical macroprudential tools to reduce vulnerabilities at banks are being implemented, but they may not be sufficient because activities can migrate and there are limited tools for nonbank intermediaries and for borrowers. While monetary policy itself can influence ...
Staff Reports , Paper 690

Working Paper
The Macroeconomic Impact of Financial and Uncertainty Shocks
Caldara, Dario; Zakrajšek, Egon; Gilchrist, Simon; Fuentes-Albero, Cristina (2016-05)
The extraordinary events surrounding the Great Recession have cast a considerable doubt on the traditional sources of macroeconomic instability. In their place, economists have singled out financial and uncertainty shocks as potentially important drivers of economic fluctuations. Empirically distinguishing between these two types of shocks, however, is difficult because increases in economic uncertainty are strongly associated with a widening of credit spreads, an indication of a tightening in financial conditions. This paper uses the penalty function approach within the SVAR framework to ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1166

Speech
The U.S. economic outlook and monetary policy
Dudley, William (2015-11-12)
Remarks at the Economic Club of New York, New York City.
Speech , Paper 185

Speech
Rising to the Challenge: Central Banking, Financial Markets, and the Pandemic
Williams, John C. (2020-07-16)
Remarks at the 16th Meeting of the Financial Research Advisory Committee for the Treasury’s Office of Financial Research (delivered via videoconference).
Speech

Working Paper
The Interplay Between Financial Conditions and Monetary Policy Shocks
Serrao, Trevor; Benzoni, Luca; Bassetto, Marco (2016-10-17)
We study the interplay between monetary policy and financial conditions shocks. Such shocks have a significant and similar impact on the real economy, though with different degrees of persistence. The systematic fed funds rate response to a financial shock contributes to bringing the economy back towards trend, but a zero lower bound on policy rates can prevent this from happening, with a significant cost in terms of output and investment. In a retrospective analysis of the U.S. economy over the past 20 years, we decompose the realization of economic variables into the contributions of ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2016-11

Newsletter
Introducing the Chicago Fed’s New Adjusted National Financial Conditions Index
Brave, Scott A.; Kelly, David L. (2017)
This article introduces improvements to the adjusted National Financial Conditions Index (ANFCI). Compared with the previous version, the new ANFCI uses an enhanced estimation procedure with a broader set of macroeconomic adjustment variables and produces a longer time series history.
Chicago Fed Letter

Journal Article
Monetary Policy and Financial Conditions
Bauer, Michael D.; Arnaut-Hull, Zoë (2024-03-04)
Financial conditions indexes summarize a broad range of financial indicators with the goal of measuring how financial markets affect economic activity. Evidence from event studies with high-frequency data supports the view that monetary policy is a key driver of financial conditions. The effects are evident, not only around monetary policy announcements but also, indirectly, around macroeconomic data releases. The impact of inflation surprises on financial conditions has strengthened over the past year, likely due to the perceived implications for the future course of monetary policy.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2024 , Issue 07 , Pages 6

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