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Speech
Remarks on the Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy
Musalem, Alberto G. (2025-03-03)
St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem shared his views on the U.S. economy and monetary policy at the 41st annual National Association for Business Economics (NABE) Economic Policy Conference in Washington, D.C. He gave a speech, “Remarks on the Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy,” and participated in a moderated Q&A.
Speech

Journal Article
The Persistent Effects of the Temporary Tightening in Financial Conditions
Bundick, Brent (2019-04-17)
Market-based measures of uncertainty, a common proxy for broader financial conditions, rose sharply in the fourth quarter of 2018 but have retreated to more normal levels over the last few months. While the recent increase in uncertainty was brief, the temporary tightening in financial conditions will likely have longer-lasting effects on economic activity and prices.
Economic Bulletin , Issue April 17, 2019 , Pages 4

Speech
Panel remarks at the Brookings Institution
Dudley, William (2015-10-15)
Remarks at The Fed at a crossroads: Where to go next?, Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C.
Speech , Paper 181

Report
Monetary policy, financial conditions, and financial stability
Liang, J. Nellie; Adrian, Tobias (2014-09-01)
We review a growing literature that incorporates endogenous risk premiums and risk taking in the conduct of monetary policy. Accommodative policy can create an intertemporal trade-off between improving current financial conditions and increasing future financial vulnerabilities. In the United States, structural and cyclical macroprudential tools to reduce vulnerabilities at banks are being implemented, but they may not be sufficient because activities can migrate and there are limited tools for nonbank intermediaries and for borrowers. While monetary policy itself can influence ...
Staff Reports , Paper 690

Working Paper
The Macroeconomic Impact of Financial and Uncertainty Shocks
Caldara, Dario; Zakrajšek, Egon; Gilchrist, Simon; Fuentes-Albero, Cristina (2016-05)
The extraordinary events surrounding the Great Recession have cast a considerable doubt on the traditional sources of macroeconomic instability. In their place, economists have singled out financial and uncertainty shocks as potentially important drivers of economic fluctuations. Empirically distinguishing between these two types of shocks, however, is difficult because increases in economic uncertainty are strongly associated with a widening of credit spreads, an indication of a tightening in financial conditions. This paper uses the penalty function approach within the SVAR framework to ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1166

Working Paper
The Financial Market Effects of Unwinding the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet
Valcarcel, Victor J.; Smith, Andrew Lee (2021-01-04)
For the second time in the brief 12-year period between 2008 and 2020, central banks have once again turned to asset purchase programs to combat a global economic downturn. While balance sheet expansions have become familiar, balance sheet normalization has proven more elusive. Nevertheless, an understanding of the consequences of unwinding asset purchases is necessary for well-informed decisions over the deployment of these unconventional policy tools. This paper provides a first analysis of the financial market effects of balance sheet normalization based on the U.S. experience between 2017 ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 20-23

Report
Forecasting Macroeconomic Risks
Boyarchenko, Nina; Adams, Patrick A.; Giannone, Domenico; Adrian, Tobias (2020-02-01)
We construct risks around consensus forecasts of real GDP growth, unemployment, and inflation. We find that risks are time-varying, asymmetric, and partly predictable. Tight financial conditions forecast downside growth risk, upside unemployment risk, and increased uncertainty around the inflation forecast. Growth vulnerability arises as the conditional mean and conditional variance of GDP growth are negatively correlated: downside risks are driven by lower mean and higher variance when financial conditions tighten. Similarly, employment vulnerability arises as the conditional mean and ...
Staff Reports , Paper 914

Working Paper
Constructing Density Forecasts from Quantile Regressions: Multimodality in Macro-Financial Dynamics
Mitchell, James; Zhu, Dan; Poon, Aubrey (2022-05-09)
Quantile regression methods are increasingly used to forecast tail risks and uncertainties in macroeconomic outcomes. This paper reconsiders how to construct predictive densities from quantile regressions. We compare a popular two-step approach that fits a specific parametric density to the quantile forecasts with a nonparametric alternative that lets the 'data speak.' Simulation evidence and an application revisiting GDP growth uncertainties in the US demonstrate the flexibility of the nonparametric approach when constructing density forecasts from both frequentist and Bayesian quantile ...
Working Papers , Paper 22-12

Working Paper
Corporate Bond Market Distress
Boyarchenko, Nina; Crump, Richard K.; Kovner, Anna; Shachar, Or (2024-09)
We link bond market functioning to future economic activity through a new measure, the Corporate Bond Market Distress Index (CMDI). The CMDI coalesces metrics from primary and secondary markets in real time, offering a unified measure to capture access to debt capital markets. The index correctly identifies periods of distress and predicts future realizations of commonly used measures of market functioning, while the converse is not the case. We show that disruptions in access to corporate bond markets have an economically material, statistically significant impact on the real economy, even ...
Working Paper , Paper 24-09

Report
The Federal Reserve and market confidence
Boyarchenko, Nina; Haddad, Valentin; Plosser, Matthew (2016-04-01)
We discover a novel monetary policy shock that has a widespread impact on aggregate financial conditions and market confidence. Our shock can be summarized by the response of long-horizon yields to Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements; not only is it orthogonal to changes in the near-term path of policy rates, but it also explains more than half of the abnormal variation in the yield curve on announcement days. We find that our shock is positively related to changes in real interest rates and market volatility, and negatively related to market returns and mortgage issuance, ...
Staff Reports , Paper 773

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