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Discussion Paper
COVID-19 Financial Support: Who’s Covered and Who’s Not?
Federal, state, and local government financial support for consumers in response to COVID-19 is widespread, but not universal. Who’s left out from existing governmental support programs?
Report
Failing Banks
Why do banks fail? We create a panel covering most commercial banks from 1865 through 2023 to study the history of failing banks in the United States. Failing banks are characterized by rising asset losses, deteriorating solvency, and an increasing reliance on expensive non-core funding. Commonalities across failing banks imply that failures are highly predictable using simple accounting metrics from publicly available financial statements. Predictability is high even in the absence of deposit insurance, when depositor runs were common. Bank-level fundamentals also forecast aggregate waves of ...
Conference Paper
Surprising similarities: recent monetary regimes of small economies
In contrast to earlier recessions, the monetary regimes of many small economies have not changed in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. This is due in part to the fact that many small economies continue to use hard exchange rate fixes, a reasonably durable regime. However, most of the new stability is due to countries that float with an inflation target. Though a few have left to join the Eurozone, no country has yet abandoned an inflation targeting regime under duress. Inflation targeting now represents a serious alternative to a hard exchange rate fix for small economies seeking ...
Speech
Liquidity Shocks: Lessons Learned from the Global Financial Crisis and the Pandemic
Remarks at the 2021 Financial Crisis Forum, Panel on Lessons for Emergency Lending (delivered via videoconference).
Speech
Fintech: Revolution or Evolution?
President Patrick T. Harker gave his economic outlook and discussed issues surrounding financial technology at the University of Pennsylvania?s School of Engineering and Applied Science. The event was part of a lecture series on technology, business, and government
From Academia to the Federal Reserve
For Paula Tkac, associate director of research at the Atlanta Fed, breaking the rules is about looking outside the box and seeing how things can be done differently.
Speech
Remarks at Conference on Successful Strategies for Financial Literacy and Education
Remarks by Charles L. Evans, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Chicago, IL
Working Paper
A Tale of Two Bailouts: Effects of TARP and PPP on Subprime Consumer Debt
High levels of subprime consumer debt can create social problems. We test the effects of the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) and Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) bailouts during the Global Financial Crisis and COVID-19 crisis, respectively, on this debt. We use over 11 million credit bureau observations of individual consumer debt combined with banking, bailout, and local market data. We find that subprime consumers with more TARP institutions in their markets had significantly increased debt burdens following these bailouts. In contrast, PPP bailouts were associated with reduced ...