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Journal Article
Pensions in peril
Journal Article
The federal budget for rearmament
Journal Article
The federal budget in the transition economy
Journal Article
The evolution of Treasury cash management during the financial crisis
The U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve System have long enjoyed a close relationship, each helping the other to carry out certain statutory responsibilities. This relationship proved beneficial during the 2008-09 financial crisis, when the Treasury altered its cash management practices to facilitate the Fed?s dramatic expansion of credit to banks, primary dealers, and foreign central banks.
Newsletter
Should the federal government bail out the states? Lessons from past recessions
Like the economy in general, individual state economies are struggling in this recession. State governments face significant constraints in raising additional revenues. Most states are required to balance their budgets regardless of the economic environment. This article considers the role of the federal government in helping the states to manage their finances.
Working Paper
Partisan Impacts on the Economy: Evidence from Prediction Markets and Close Elections
Political economists interested in discerning the effects of election outcomes on the economy have been hampered by the problem that economic outcomes also influence elections. We sidestep these problems by analyzing movements in economic indicators caused by clearly exogenous changes in expectations about the likely winner during election day. Analyzing high frequency financial fluctuations on November 2 and 3 in 2004, we find that markets anticipated higher equity prices, interest rates, and oil prices and a stronger dollar under a Bush presidency than under Kerry. A similar ...
Journal Article
The 1957 budget
Journal Article
The federal budget for 1956
Discussion Paper
Is the United States Relying on Foreign Investors to Finance Its Bigger Budget Deficit?
The fiscal packages passed in 2020 and 2021 to help the economy cope with the pandemic caused a dramatic increase in federal government borrowing. One might have expected that foreign investors were important buyers of this new debt, but that was not the case. They were instead net sellers of Treasury securities. Still, the amount of money flowing into the United States increased last year, which helped fund the government’s borrowing, if only indirectly. The upturn in inflows, though, was quite modest as a surge in domestic personal saving largely covered the government’s heightened ...