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Journal Article
Monetary Policy Stance Is Tighter than Federal Funds Rate
The Federal Reserve’s use of forward guidance and balance sheet policy means that monetary policy consists of more than changing the federal funds rate target. A proxy federal funds rate that incorporates data from financial markets can help assess the broader stance of monetary policy. This proxy measure shows that, since late 2021, monetary policy has been substantially tighter than the federal funds rate indicates. Tightening financial conditions are similar to what would be expected if the funds rate had exceeded 5¼% by September 2022.
Journal Article
Assessing the Costs of Rolling Over Government Debt
The US government has $21.4 trillion in outstanding Treasury debt in bills, notes, and bonds. Given the federal funds rate is up 4-5% over the past year, how expensive will it be to roll over maturing Treasury debt at these higher rates?
Speech
Bullard Discusses Disinflation, Rate Increases and Economic Resilience on CNBC
During an appearance on CNBC, St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard discussed disinflation, the federal funds rate and the resilience of the U.S. economy. To help curb inflation, Bullard said his target federal funds rate would be 5 3/8%. The target range for the rate currently is 4.5% to 4.75%.“I think we can get disinflation with a strong labor market, but we'll have to be credible in our policy and we'll have to react to the data as it comes up,” Bullard said.Bullard said the U.S. economy might be more resilient than financial markets thought six to eight weeks ago, and he expects ...
Market Liquidity and the Quantity Theory of Money
A rising federal funds rate means there is less liquidity in the market, which could help reduce the inflation rate in the months ahead.
Journal Article
The Effect of Higher Financing Costs on Job Openings and Online Job Postings
In this Economic Commentary, we consider whether the declines in vacancies seen in the second half of 2022 could have been driven by monetary policy tightening. We look at whether the variation in this decline across industries and states was consistent with increases in the federal funds rate. Our first strategy focuses on variation at the industry level in exposure to higher borrowing costs. Our second leverages geographic differences in the effect of monetary policy tightening on financing costs. Both strategies suggest that monetary policy is, at least in part, responsible for the recent ...
Speech
Reflections on Uncertainty and Patience in Monetary Policymaking
Susan Collins remains optimistic that inflation can be brought back to 2 percent in a reasonable amount of time and with a labor market that remains healthy. Stronger-than-anticipated inflation and economic activity suggest that achieving the Fed’s dual mandate goals may take longer than previously thought, and progress may be uneven.
Journal Article
How Quickly Do Prices Respond to Monetary Policy?
With inflation still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% objective, there is renewed interest in understanding how quickly federal funds rate hikes typically affect inflation. Beyond monetary policy’s well-known lagged effect on the economy overall, new analysis highlights that not all prices respond with the same strength or speed. Results suggest that inflation for the most responsive categories of goods and services has come down substantially from recent highs, likely due in part to more restrictive monetary policy. As a result, the contributions of these categories to overall inflation ...
Speech
Perspectives on the Economy and Policymaking
Susan Collins reviews a wide range of information to assess the evolving economy. She looks for patterns and trends showing sustained reductions in inflation, and progress on the underlying goal of bringing demand and supply back into better balance. She notes that price stability is essential for a well-functioning economy and an important precondition for maximum employment that is sustainable over time.
Speech
A Diligent Return to Price Stability
Last week, the FOMC raised its target range of the federal funds rate by 75 basis points to 3-3/4 to 4 percent. We also indicated that we anticipate that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate in order to attain a monetary policy stance that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent. Given the level and persistence of inflation, the journey back to 2 percent inflation will likely take some time. The FOMC is also continuing the process of reducing the size of the Fed’s balance sheet by allowing assets to roll off, which also helps to firm the stance ...