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Working Paper
Pricing Poseidon: Extreme Weather Uncertainty and Firm Return Dynamics
We present a framework to identify market responses to uncertainty faced by firms regarding both the potential incidence of extreme weather events and subsequent economic impact. Stock options of firms with establishments in forecast and realized hurricane landfall regions exhibit large increases in implied volatility, reflecting significant incidence uncertainty and long-lasting impact uncertainty. Comparing ex ante expected volatility to ex post realized volatility by analyzing volatility risk premia changes shows that investors significantly underestimate extreme weather uncertainty. After ...
Journal Article
Electric reliability concerns spur Texas backup generation boom
Amid growing concerns about reliability of electricity services across power-hungry Texas, deployment of back-up power sources—microgrids and alternative generation—is increasing. These assets, serving customers ranging from college campuses to oilfield operations, help keep the lights on when disaster strikes.
Working Paper
Extreme Weather and the Macroeconomy