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Working Paper
An Anatomy of U.S. Establishments’ Trade Linkages in Global Value Chains
Flaaen, Aaron; Kamal, Fariha; Lee, Eunhee; Yi, Kei-Mu (2024-12-27)
Global value chains (GVC) are a pervasive feature of modern production, but they are hard to measure. Using U.S. Census microdata, we develop novel measures of the linkages between U.S. manufacturing establishments’ imports and exports. We document three new GVC patterns. First, for every dollar of exports, imported inputs represent 13 cents in 2002 and 20 cents by 2017, substantially higher than what aggregate data suggests. Second, we find strong complementarities between input and output markets reflected in “round-trip” trade linkages where an establishment sources inputs from and ...
Working Papers , Paper 2419

Trade Wars, Tech Rivalry and Geopolitical Tensions
Santacreu, Ana Maria; Moore, Samuel (2024-09-03)
An analysis of 'geopolitical distance' and exports highlights the links between geopolitical alignment and access to U.S. technology and goods.
On the Economy

A Growing Trade Deficit? Medical Goods Imports Plays a Role
Santacreu, Ana Maria; Leibovici, Fernando (2020-11-10)
Typically, the U.S. trade deficit narrows during a recession. However, the deficit actually widened by about 20% from January to June.
On the Economy

Discussion Paper
Does a Data Quirk Inflate China’s Travel Services Deficit?
Klitgaard, Thomas; Wong, Anna; Higgins, Matthew (2019-08-07)
Chinese residents are increasingly traveling to see the rest of the world, logging a total of 162 million foreign visits in 2018, up from 57 million in 2010. Increased travel spending by Chinese residents is acting to reduce the country's trade surplus because such spending is counted as a services import. However, there appears to be a quirk in the Chinese data that results in a significant understatement of the offsetting spending by visitors to China (a services export). According to other Chinese data, this understatement totaled $85 billion in 2018. If so, China's deficit in travel ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20190807

Discussion Paper
Foreign Borrowing in the Euro Area Periphery: The End Is Near
Higgins, Matthew; Klitgaard, Thomas (2013-05-22)
Current account deficits in euro area periphery countries have now largely disappeared. This represents a substantial adjustment. Only two years ago, deficits stood at nearly 10 percent of GDP in Greece and Portugal and 5 percent in Spain and Italy (see chart below). This sharp narrowing means that spending has been brought in line with income, largely righting an imbalance that had left these countries dependent on heavy foreign borrowing. However, adjustment has come at a sizable cost to growth, with lower domestic spending only partly offset by higher export sales. Downward pressure on ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20130522

Journal Article
Crude oil export ban benefits some … but not all
Plante, Michael D. (2014-07)
Lifting the U.S. ban on crude oil exports would alleviate a growing glut of oil at the Gulf Coast refineries and should eventually reduce retail gasoline and diesel prices, benefiting U.S. consumers.
Economic Letter , Volume 9 , Issue 7 , Pages 1-4

Technological Innovations and Global Trade of Services
Monge-Naranjo, Alexander; Sun, Qiuhan (2020-12-29)
Technological innovations may give the U.S. a significant advantage in the global trade of services, which could potentially help the U.S. close its trade deficit.
On the Economy

Newsletter
What Is the Balance of Payments?
Geiger, Amanda (2025-10-01)
Learn about the accounting system used in the U.S. to measure international trade transactions.
Page One Economics Newsletter

Discussion Paper
Can Electric Cars Power China’s Growth?
Klitgaard, Thomas (2024-02-28)
China’s aggressive policies to develop its battery-powered electric vehicle (BEV) industry have been successful in making the country the dominant producer of these vehicles worldwide. Going forward, BEVs will likely claim a growing share of global motor vehicle sales, helped along by subsides and mandates implemented in the United States, Europe, and elsewhere. Nevertheless, China’s success in selling BEVs may not contribute much to its GDP growth, owing both to the maturity of its motor vehicle sector and the strong tendency for countries to protect this high-profile industry.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20240228

Discussion Paper
The Effect of the Strong Dollar on U.S. Growth
Bodine-Smith, Tyler; Amiti, Mary (2015-07-17)
The recent strengthening of the U.S. dollar has raised concerns about its impact on U.S. GDP growth. The U.S. dollar has appreciated around 12 percent since mid-2014, rising against almost all of our trading partners, with the largest gains against Japan, Mexico, Canada, and the euro area. There was far less movement against newly industrial Asian economies and hardly any change against China. In this blog, we ask how the strength of the dollar affects U.S. GDP growth. Although the dollar can impact the U.S. growth through a number of different channels, we focus on the direct impact through ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20150717

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