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Working Paper
Evaluating Macroeconomic Outcomes Under Asymmetries: Expectations Matter
Bundick, Brent; Cairó, Isabel; Petrosky-Nadeau, Nicolas (2025-09-05)
Asymmetries play an important role in many macroeconomic models. We show that assumptions on household and firm expectations play a key role in determining the effects of these asymmetries on macroeconomic outcomes. If households and firms have perfect foresight and hence do not account for the possibility of future shocks, then the implied longer-run averages and distributions for unemployment and inflation can differ significantly from their rational expectations counterparts. We first derive this result analytically under either an asymmetric monetary policy rule or a nonlinear Phillips ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2025-079

Working Paper
The Effect of Central Bank Credibility on Forward Guidance in an Estimated New Keynesian Model
Martinez-Garcia, Enrique; Cole, Stephen J. (2020-05-27)
This paper examines the effectiveness of forward guidance in an estimated New Keynesian model with imperfect central bank credibility. We estimate credibility for the U.S. Federal Reserve with Bayesian methods exploiting survey data on interest rate expectations from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). The results provide important takeaways: (1) The estimate of Federal Reserve credibility in terms of forward guidance announcements is relatively high, which indicates a degree of forward guidance effectiveness, but still one that is below the fully credible case. Hence, anticipation ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 375

Working Paper
Indirect Consumer Inflation Expectations: Theory and Evidence
Hajdini, Ina; Knotek, Edward S.; Leer, John; Pedemonte, Mathieu; Rich, Robert W.; Schoenle, Raphael (2022-11-22)
Based on indirect utility theory, we introduce a novel methodology of measuring inflation expectations indirectly. This methodology starts at the individual level, asking consumers about the change in income required to buy the same amounts of goods and services one year ahead. Analytically, our methodology possesses smaller ex-post aggregate inflation forecast errors relative to forecasts based on conventional survey questions. We ask this question in a large-scale, high-frequency survey of consumers in the US and 14 countries, and we show that indirect consumer inflation expectations ...
Working Papers , Paper 22-35

Report
Should Mothers Work? How Perceptions of the Social Norm Affect Individual Attitudes Toward Work in the U.S.
Cortes, Patricia; Koşar, Gizem; Pan, Jessica; Zafar, Basit (2022-11-01)
We study how peer beliefs shape individual attitudes toward maternal labor supply using realistic hypothetical scenarios that elicit recommendations on the labor supply choices of a mother with a young child and an information treatment embedded within representative surveys. Across the scenarios, we find that individuals systematically overestimate the extent of gender conservativeness among the people around them. Exposure to information on peer beliefs leads to a shift in recommendations, driven largely by information-based belief updating. The information treatment also increases ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1038

Discussion Paper
Introducing the SCE Credit Access Survey
Zafar, Basit; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2014-11-20)
Today, we are releasing new data on consumers? experiences and expectations regarding credit demand. We?ve been collecting these data every four months since mid-2013, as part of our Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE). Other data sources describing consumer credit either provide aggregates that are an interaction of credit supply and demand (such as the FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel), or show only short-term changes in supply and demand (as reported by the supply side in the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey), or are too infrequent to provide a real-time picture of changes in consumer ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20141120

Working Paper
The Economic Effects of Firm-Level Uncertainty: Evidence Using Subjective Expectations
Fiori, Giuseppe; Scoccianti, Filippo (2021-06-28)
This paper uses over two decades of Italian survey data on business managers' expectations to measure subjective firm-level uncertainty and quantify its economic effects. We document that firm-level uncertainty persists for a few years and varies across firms' demographic characteristics. Uncertainty induces long-lasting economic effects over a broad array of real and financial variables. The source of uncertainty matters with firms responding only to downside uncertainty, that is, uncertainty about future adverse outcomes. Economy-wide uncertainty, constructed aggregating firm-level ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1320

Working Paper
Asset Prices and Credit with Diagnostic Expectations
Cloyne, James; Jordà, Òscar; Singh, Sanjay R.; Taylor, Alan M. (2025-08-22)
Using long-run cross-country panel data, we document that (i) contemporaneous credit growth strongly predicts contemporaneous equity returns with positive sign, and (ii) lagged credit growth strongly predicts contemporaneous equity returns with negative sign. This correlation reversal is robust to added controls for contemporaneous and lagged consumption growth and these credit factors have greater explanatory power than the consumption factors. We find that a general equilibrium model with financial frictions and rational expectations fails to match the empirically estimated sign on ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2025-15

Discussion Paper
Introducing the SCE Housing Survey
Zafar, Basit; Fuster, Andreas; Cocci, Matthew; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2014-09-08)
In February 2014, we administered a survey on housing-related issues to the Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) panelists. Our primary goal was to secure rich and high-quality information on consumers? experiences and expectations regarding housing. The survey, among other things, collected data on households? perceptions and expectations of the growth in home prices, their intentions regarding moving or buying a new home, and their access to credit. In addition, for homeowners, we collected detailed information on their mortgage debt, past experiences such as foreclosure or refinancing, ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20140908

Speech
Living Life Near the ZLB
Williams, John C. (2019-07-18)
Remarks at 2019 Annual Meeting of the Central Bank Research Association (CEBRA), New York City.
Speech , Paper 327

Working Paper
Does Drawing Down the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve Help Stabilize Oil Prices?
Kilian, Lutz; Zhou, Xiaoqing (2019-12-20)
We study the efficacy of releases from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) within the context of fully specified models of the global oil market that explicitly allow for storage demand as well as unanticipated changes in the SPR. Using novel identifying strategies and evaluation methods, we examine seven questions. First, how much have exogenous shocks to the SPR contributed to the variability in the real price of oil? Second, how much would a one-time exogenous reduction in the SPR lower the real price of oil? Third, are exogenous SPR releases partially or fully offset by increases ...
Working Papers , Paper 1916

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