Search Results
Working Paper
What Macroeconomic Conditions Lead Financial Crises?
Research has suggested that a rapid pace of nonfinancial borrowing reliably precedes financial crises, placing the pace of debt growth at the center of frameworks for the deployment of macroprudential policies. I reconsider the role of asset-prices and current account deficits as leading indicators of financial crises. Run-ups in equity and house prices and a widening of the current account deficit have substantially larger (and more statistically-significant) effects than debt growth on the probability of a financial crisis in standard crisis-prediction models. The analysis highlights the ...
Blame higher U.S. equity prices for recent moves in U.S. external liabilities
The U.S. net foreign asset position—the value of foreign assets held by U.S. residents minus the value of U.S. assets held by foreign residents—has fallen sharply since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.
Speech
The importance of financial conditions in the conduct of monetary policy: remarks at the University of South Florida Sarasota-Manatee, Sarasota, Florida
Remarks at the University of South Florida Sarasota-Manatee, Sarasota, Florida.