Search Results
Working Paper
Adjusted Employment-to-Population Ratio as an Indicator of Labor Market Strength
As a measure of labor market strength, the raw employment-to-population ratio (EPOP) confounds employment outcomes with labor supply behavior. Movement in the EPOP depends on the relative movements of the employment rate (one minus the unemployment rate) and the labor force participation rate. This paper proposes an adjustment to the calculation of the EPOP using individual microdata to account for both individual characteristics and the probability of labor force participation, which can used to assess the strength of the labor market.
Journal Article
Searching for Maximum Employment
How well the economy is progressing toward the Federal Reserve’s goal of maximum employment is reflected in a range of indicators that evolve over time. Beyond the unemployment rate, two key metrics of labor market health are the labor force participation rate and the employment-to-population ratio. The aging of the population is reducing the levels of both measures, implying that they are unlikely to return to pre-pandemic highs. However, these two indicators remain well below their demographic trends, and analysis suggests that they will not recover to trend until 2024.
Out-of-School Young Adults Faring Poorly in Economic Slowdown
Since February 2022, out-of-school young adults have seen their employment-population ratio decline sharper than other groups.
Journal Article
Labor Market Opportunities for Black Men: How Good Is the News?
An analysis uses employment-to-population ratio, a more inclusive metric than labor force participation, to examine labor market conditions for Black men.