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Discussion Paper
How Much Does Immigration Data Explain the Employment‑Gap Puzzle?
A puzzling feature of official U.S. employment statistics in recent years has been the increase in the gap between the nonfarm payroll and household employment numbers. This discrepancy is not trivial. From the end of 2021 though the end of 2024, net job gains in the payroll survey were 3.6 million larger than in the household survey. In this Liberty Street Economics post, we investigate one potential explanation for the emergence of this gap: a sharp rise in undocumented immigration during the post-COVID period that would be differentially reflected in the two surveys. We leverage ...
Working Paper
The Role of News about TFP in U.S. Recessions and Booms
We develop a general equilibrium model to study the historical contribution of TFP news to the U.S. business cycle. Hiring frictions provide incentives for firms to start hiring ahead of an anticipated improvement in technology. For plausibly calibrated hiring costs, employment gradually rises in response to positive TFP news shocks even under standard preferences. TFP news shocks are identified mainly by current and expected unemployment rates since periods in which average unemployment is relatively high (low) are also periods in which average TFP growth is slow (fast). We work out the ...
Journal Article
A Strong Labor Market Has Narrowed Gaps in Participation and Employment between Black and White Non-College Men
Black and Hispanic workers faced disproportionately larger declines in labor force participation than white workers during the pandemic-led recession. This gap appears consistent with previous recessions: the labor market outcomes of racial and ethnic minorities tend to deteriorate more than those of white workers during recessions, widening gaps in participation, employment, and wages during downturns. However, the labor market has since recovered, with employment rising above pre-pandemic levels. Have gaps in labor market outcomes between Black and white workers narrowed?Didem Tüzemen and ...