Search Results
Working Paper
International Dollar Flows
Using confidential Federal Reserve data, we study the factors driving U.S. banknote flows between the United States and other countries. These flows are a significant component of capital flows in emerging market economies, where physical U.S. currency functions as a safe asset and precautionary demand for U.S. banknotes is a form of flight to quality. Prior to the global financial crisis, country-specific factors, including local economic uncertainty, largely explain the volume and heterogeneity of the flows. Since the crisis, global factors, particularly, global economic uncertainty, ...
Working Paper
Measuring Geopolitical Risk
We present a monthly indicator of geopolitical risk based on a tally of newspaper articles covering geopolitical tensions, and examine its evolution and effects since 1985. The geopolitical risk (GPR) index spikes around the Gulf War, after 9/11, during the 2003 Iraq invasion, during the 2014 Russia-Ukraine crisis, and after the Paris terrorist attacks. High geopolitical risk leads to a decline in real activity, lower stock returns, and movements in capital flows away from emerging economies and towards advanced economies. When we decompose the index into threats and acts components, the ...
Speech
The U.S. Economy: National Economic Outlook
In-person keynote presentation at the 2026 New York State Economic Development Council Annual Meeting, delivered by Kartik Athreya, Director of Research and Head of the Research and Statistics Group, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. This event was hosted by the New York State Economic Development Council in Cooperstown, New York.
Journal Article
The Impact of COVID-19 on the Residential Real Estate Market
During the spring, the COVID-19 pandemic caused the residential real estate market to decline an average 33% around the country.
Speech
Ferrying Through the Crosscurrents
Remarks at the Staten Island Economic Development Corporation, Staten Island, New York City.
Working Paper
Learning About Consumer Uncertainty from Qualitative Surveys: As Uncertain As Ever
We study diffusion indices constructed from qualitative surveys to provide real-time assessments of various aspects of economic activity. In particular, we highlight the role of diffusion indices as estimates of change in a quasi extensive margin, and characterize their distribution, focusing on the uncertainty implied by both sampling and the polarization of participants' responses. Because qualitative tendency surveys generally cover multiple questions around a topic, a key aspect of this uncertainty concerns the coincidence of responses, or the degree to which polarization comoves, across ...
Uncertainty Shocks Can Trigger Recessionary Conditions
Using an economic model, this analysis takes a popular measure of economic policy uncertainty and looks at how large increases in uncertainty can affect the economy.
Speech
The Totality of the Data
Remarks at NY CREATES Albany NanoTech Complex, Albany, New York.
Speech
Hat Tip to the Data
Remarks at the Economic Club of New York, New York City.
Breakeven Employment Growth: Estimate Range Widens in 2026
Volatile immigration projections create uncertainty in the 2026 breakeven employment growth estimate, which now ranges from 15,000 to 87,000 jobs per month.