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Speech
Observations on the U.S. Economy in a Changing Global Landscape
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President & CEO Susan M. Collins delivered the opening remarks at the Boston Fed’s 69th Economic Conference, “The U.S. Economy in a Changing Global Landscape.”
Working Paper
Credit Surfaces and Economic Uncertainty
The Credit Surface along the leverage dimension gives the bond spread as a function of the loan-to-value ratio. Empirically, we show that uncertainty shocks typically increase spreads and steepen the credit surface, profoundly affecting the supply of credit. Theoretically, we derive necessary and sufficient conditions for the convexity of the credit surface, and for changes in the anticipated distribution of collateral prices that lead to steepening of the credit surface. Finally, we show that the credit surface itself fully reveals the entire distribution of collateral prices, thus providing ...
Working Paper
Term Structure of Interest Rates with Short-run and Long-run Risks
Bond returns are time-varying and predictable. What economic forces drive this variation? To answer this long-standing question, we propose a consumption-based model with recursive preferences, long-run risks, and inflation non-neutrality. Our model offers two important insights. First, our model matches well the post-1990 nominal upward-sloping U.S. Treasury yield curve. Second, consistent with our model's implication, variance risk premium based on the U.S. interest rate derivatives data emerges as a strong predictor for short-horizon Treasury excess returns, above and beyond the predictive ...
Working Paper
International Dollar Flows
Using confidential Federal Reserve data, we study the factors driving U.S. banknote flows between the United States and other countries. These flows are a significant component of capital flows in emerging market economies, where physical U.S. currency functions as a safe asset and precautionary demand for U.S. banknotes is a form of flight to quality. Prior to the global financial crisis, country-specific factors, including local economic uncertainty, largely explain the volume and heterogeneity of the flows. Since the crisis, global factors, particularly, global economic uncertainty, ...
Journal Article
Hiring in Oklahoma Slows, but Unemployment Remains Low
Job gains in the U.S. slowed in 2025, due to both supply and demand factors. Although employment is growing at a steady pace in Oklahoma, hiring has slowed recently to historic lows, reflecting reduced labor market churn. This edition of Oklahoma Economist uses data from the Kansas City Fed's manufacturing and services surveys to examine the underlying causes of this hiring slowdown.
Speech
Economic Conditions, Risks and Monetary Policy
St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem shared his views on the U.S. economy and monetary policy at a Peterson Institute for International Economics event in Washington, D.C. He gave a speech, “Economic Conditions, Risks and Monetary Policy,” and participated in a Q&A moderated by Esther George, an institute board member and former president of the Kansas City Fed.
Journal Article
The Impact of COVID-19 on the Residential Real Estate Market
During the spring, the COVID-19 pandemic caused the residential real estate market to decline an average 33% around the country.
Speech
The Totality of the Data
Remarks at NY CREATES Albany NanoTech Complex, Albany, New York.
Speech
Hat Tip to the Data
Remarks at the Economic Club of New York, New York City.
Speech
Ferrying Through the Crosscurrents
Remarks at the Staten Island Economic Development Corporation, Staten Island, New York City.