Search Results
Speech
The Totality of the Data
Remarks at NY CREATES Albany NanoTech Complex, Albany, New York.
Working Paper
Term Structure of Interest Rates with Short-run and Long-run Risks
Bond returns are time-varying and predictable. What economic forces drive this variation? To answer this long-standing question, we propose a consumption-based model with recursive preferences, long-run risks, and inflation non-neutrality. Our model offers two important insights. First, our model matches well the post-1990 nominal upward-sloping U.S. Treasury yield curve. Second, consistent with our model's implication, variance risk premium based on the U.S. interest rate derivatives data emerges as a strong predictor for short-horizon Treasury excess returns, above and beyond the predictive ...
Speech
Economic Conditions, Risks and Monetary Policy
St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem shared his views on the U.S. economy and monetary policy at a Peterson Institute for International Economics event in Washington, D.C. He gave a speech, “Economic Conditions, Risks and Monetary Policy,” and participated in a Q&A moderated by Esther George, an institute board member and former president of the Kansas City Fed.
Speech
Hat Tip to the Data
Remarks at the Economic Club of New York, New York City.
Journal Article
The Impact of COVID-19 on the Residential Real Estate Market
During the spring, the COVID-19 pandemic caused the residential real estate market to decline an average 33% around the country.
Working Paper
International Dollar Flows
Using confidential Federal Reserve data, we study the factors driving U.S. banknote flows between the United States and other countries. These flows are a significant component of capital flows in emerging market economies, where physical U.S. currency functions as a safe asset and precautionary demand for U.S. banknotes is a form of flight to quality. Prior to the global financial crisis, country-specific factors, including local economic uncertainty, largely explain the volume and heterogeneity of the flows. Since the crisis, global factors, particularly, global economic uncertainty, ...
Uncertainty Shocks Can Trigger Recessionary Conditions
Using an economic model, this analysis takes a popular measure of economic policy uncertainty and looks at how large increases in uncertainty can affect the economy.