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Wage growth still exceeds 3 percent despite slowing in business survey measures
Fed policymakers working to reduce inflation have closely monitored how fast wages have risen. National estimates put recent 12-month wage inflation at around 4–5 percent, though these measures can lag other indicators of labor market conditions. More timely wage data can be found from the five regional Federal Reserve Banks that run business surveys.
Texas economic activity, job growth weaken as 2023 closes
Texas economic growth slowed in the fourth quarter, with job growth falling sharply in October and business activity contracting slightly in November.
Texas economic sentiment upbeat amid price pressures, uncertainty
Texas companies reported rising service sector revenue and a resumption of production growth in the manufacturing sector after weakness in 2023 and much of 2024, according to the Dallas Fed’s Texas Business Outlook Surveys (TBOS).
Texas economic outlook downbeat as uncertainty increases
The Texas economy grew slightly below trend through the first quarter of 2025. While job growth appears just off its long-term annual trend rate of about 2.1 percent, the Dallas Fed Texas Business Outlook Surveys (TBOS) point to slowing activity in both the services and manufacturing sectors.
Journal Article
Texas economy softens amid uncertain outlook
Texas’ overall pace of economic growth is trending lower, with payroll employment declining in June, a marked turn from robust job gains earlier in 2025.
Slowing Texas economy remains on track for a soft landing
The impact of a still-strong Texas jobs market and moderating business activities and costs suggest that the state’s economy may be headed for a soft landing following Fed policymaker efforts to cool inflationary pressures.
Texas shows signs of slowing; price pressures ease despite buoyant services
Texas job growth slowed in June, though it still exceeded the U.S. rate. Meanwhile, the state economy continued to expand despite the downshift in employment and weakness in manufacturing.
Texas economy grows modestly; business outlooks brighten
The Texas economy exhibited recent signs of expansion, though job growth has slowed. A measure of economic activity, The Dallas Fed Texas Business Outlook Surveys (TBOS), shows moderate gains in services revenue, a resumption of retail sales increases and stable manufacturing production.
Texas economic activity expands modestly; labor market remains healthy
Texas economic activity expanded at a modest pace in April. While the manufacturing sector rebounded, the service sector slowed. Texas employment growth was moderate in the first quarter, slightly above the state’s roughly 2 percent long-run trend, and the unemployment rate held steady.
Improved business outlooks, faster job growth boost Texas outlook
A majority of Texas Business Outlook Surveys participants expect increasing demand over the next six months, signaling an improving business outlook, even as inflation and wage growth in Texas remain elevated.