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The COVID-19 Recession in Historical Perspective
How severe is the COVID-19 recession across the globe? An analysis compares GDP growth forecasts for 2020 with historical growth rates for 155 countries.
Unleashing Hamilton’s Financial Revolution
The federal government’s assumption of Revolutionary War debt was part of what historians now describe as Hamilton’s financial revolution.
Journal Article
From Ye Olde Stagnation to Modern Growth in England
Modern economic growth is a relatively recent phenomenon in history, but what led economies out of stagnation?
Journal Article
Understanding the Speed and Size of Bank Runs in Historical Comparison
Bank runs have always been fast, but today’s runs are even faster.
How Much Debt Is Too Much? What History Shows
The U.K. had relatively high levels of public debt in the past 300 years, with its debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 200% at times.
Working Paper
Slow capital, fast prices: Shocks to funding liquidity and stock price reversals
A V-shaped price pattern is often observed in financial markets - in response to a negative shock, prices fall "too far" before reversing course. This paper looks at one particular channel of such patterns: the link between a liquidity provider's balance sheet and asset prices. I examine a well-identified historical case study where a large exogenous shock to a liquidity provider's balance sheet resulted in severe capital constraints. Using evidence from German universal banks, who acted as market makers for selected stocks in the interwar period, I show in a difference-in-differences ...
Journal Article
The Rise and Decline of Petersburg, Va.
Early Virginians looked at Petersburg, with its location on the Appomattox River, as a town of economic vibrancy and promise. Incorporated in 1748 by the Virginia General Assembly, the town fulfilled that early promise and grew to become the commonwealth's third independent city in 1850. But turmoil as well as prosperity for Petersburg were ahead. {{p}} Throughout its 270 years, three factors have dominated Petersburg's economic history: tobacco, trade, and transportation. The city's early economic prominence was due to its tobacco plantations and warehouses as well as various mills powered ...
Journal Article
The political origins of Section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act
At the height of the financial crisis of 2007-09, the Federal Reserve conducted emergency lending under authority granted to it in the third paragraph of Section 13 of the Federal Reserve Act. This article explores the political and legislative origins of the section, focusing on why Congress chose to endow the central bank with such an authority. The author describes how in the initial passage of the act in 1913, Congress demonstrated its steadfast commitment to the ?real bills? doctrine in two interrelated ways: 1) by limiting what assets the Fed could purchase, discount, and use as ...
Working Paper
Current Federal Reserve Policy Under the Lens of Economic History: A Review Essay
This review essay is intended as a critical review of Humpage (2015), and it expands on the issues raised in that volume. Federal Reserve Policy during the financial crisis, and in its aftermath are addressed, along with the relationship to historical experience in the U.S. and elsewhere in the world.
Journal Article
A Short History of Long-Term Mortgages
Americans take today's selection of mortgages for granted, but financing a home is a much different experience than it was a century ago.