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Schooling over Time and across Countries
Vandenbroucke, Guillaume (2023-10-05)
An analysis of three rich and three poor countries found that countries where schooling grew faster also had less economic growth from 1960-2010.
On the Economy

Declining immigration weighs on GDP growth, with little impact on inflation
Orrenius, Pia M.; Ozor, Grace; Zavodny, Madeline; Zhou, Xiaoqing (2025-07-08)
Unauthorized immigration surged sharply in 2021–24 but has since declined abruptly with negative implications for economic growth. Estimates based on historical data and a structural vector autoregression model suggest gross domestic product growth in 2025 is 0.75 to 1 percentage points lower than in a benchmark simulation using the Congressional Budget Office’s immigration projections through November 2024.
Dallas Fed Economics

Journal Article
Spotlight on Research: Factors That Sustain Metropolitan Growth
Smith, Marvin M. (2016-10)
The factors that underlie economic growth in metropolitan regions have been the subject of an increasing number of research efforts. Earlier research focused on the pace of growth. More recent investigations have been concerned with the resilience or capacity of regions to sustain growth paths, even in the face of external shocks. Chris Benner and Manuel Pastor add to the latter body of research by examining the growth spells among the 184 largest regions in the U.S. from 1990 to 2011.1 The authors are particularly interested in the role played by social equity. The following is a summary of ...
Cascade , Volume 4

Speech
Unlocking Our Potential
Barkin, Tom (2018-08-08)
The economy looks quite strong at present. GDP growth is solid, unemployment is low, payroll employment is growing quickly and inflation is firming toward the Fed’s 2 percent target.Underlying this growth has been strong consumer and business confidence. At the same time, consumers and businesses are concerned about the future.Growth is critical to the future, as it creates more room for rates to rise, improves fiscal health and creates better lives for people in need. Our growth potential may be low due to slow population and productivity growth. That creates challenges for monetary ...
Speech

Working Paper
Legal Institutions, Credit Markets, and Economic Activity
Heimer, Rawley; Cookson, J Anthony; Brown, James R. (2014-12-08)
This paper provides novel evidence on the causal connections between legal institutions, credit markets, and real economic activity. Our analysis exploits an unexplored within-country setting?Native American reservations?together with quasi-experimental variation in legal contract enforcement wherein the US Congress externally assigned state courts to adjudicate contracts on a subset of reservations. According to area-specific data on small business credit, reservations assigned to state courts, which enforce contracts more predictably than tribal courts, have stronger credit markets. ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1434

Speech
Inflation Then and Now
Barkin, Tom (2025-02-25)
Labor market conditions remain solid, while inflation remains somewhat elevated. It makes sense to stay modestly restrictive until we are more confident inflation is returning to our 2 percent target.I recognize the fight against inflation has been long. But it is critical that we remain steadfast.It is tempting to focus on gaming out short-term factors, but it’s hard to make significant monetary policy changes amidst such uncertainty. So, I prefer to wait and see how this uncertainty plays out and how the economy responds.
Speech

Journal Article
Aging, Deflation, and Secular Stagnation
Braun, R. Anton (2022-10-06)
Prior to the COVID pandemic, industrialized countries experienced a sustained episode of low inflation, low real interest rates, and low per capita gross domestic product (GDP) growth. As the logistical and other disruptions created by the COVID pandemic fade, will industrialized economies once again face downward pressure on prices, real interest rates, and output growth? We present evidence that the aging of the population was depressing the inflation rate, as well as real interest rates and GDP growth, prior to the COVID pandemic. Aging is ongoing in industrialized countries, and it will ...
Policy Hub , Volume 2022 , Issue 13

Journal Article
Addressing Bias and Equity in Hiring
Putnam, Ashley (2018-04)
While unemployment is decreasing and the economy is improving, not all people are benefiting equally from economic growth, a problem something multiple fields are trying to address. In workforce development, most proposed solutions focus on supply-side interventions. Indeed, surveys of businesses demonstrate that many employers are facing a skills gap when looking for qualified talent. Even with increased digital skills, improved training programs, and more employer engagement in developing a curriculum, however, a major barrier to job seekers still remains the same: will they be hired
Cascade , Volume 1

Speech
The ‘new normal’ for growth: remarks at the Community Bankers Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City
Williams, John C. (2019-04-04)
Remarks at the Community Bankers Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City.
Speech , Paper 315

Briefing
Examining the Differences in r* Estimates
Lubik, Thomas A.; Ho, Paul (2024-11)
With inflation declining over the course of the year and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) seemingly in the process of normalizing policy, a key question is: What is the natural real rate of interest (denoted r*)? In this article, we will shed light on what r* means, what models are used to estimate it and what the benefits and drawbacks are for these models.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 24 , Issue 36

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