Search Results
Report
Need for Speed: Quality of Innovations and the Allocation of Inventors
This paper studies how the speed-quality tradeoff in innovation interacts with firm dynamics, concentration, and economic growth. Empirically, we document long-run trends in the increasing speed of innovation alongside declining quality at large firms. Leveraging variation from an exogenous policy change, we document the existence of the speed-quality tradeoff both at the firm and aggregate level. We develop an endogenous growth model that incorporates the speed-quality tradeoff and show that allocating less labor towards speed increases growth, particularly in the presence of private ...
Texas economic growth outpaces nation despite persistent downside risks
Texas employment growth advanced in May, continuing to surpass the national average.
Working Paper
Non-linearity in the Inflation-Growth Relationship in Developing Economies: Evidence from a Semiparametric Panel Model
Using data on developing economies, we estimate a flexible semiparametric panel data model that incorporates potentially nonlinear effects of inflation on economic growth. We find that inflation is associated with significantly lower growth only after it reaches about 12 percent, which is notably lower than the comparable estimate obtained from a threshold model. Our results also suggest that models with restrictive functional form assumptions tend to underestimate marginal effects of inflation on economic growth. We also document significant variation in the effect of inflation on growth ...
Working Paper
A North-South Model of Structural Change and Growth
This paper is motivated by a set of cross-country observations on economic growth, structural transformation, and investment rates in a large sample of countries, We observe a hump-shaped relationship between a country’s investment rate and its level of development, both within countries over time and across countries. Advanced economies reach their investment peak at a higher level of income and at an earlier point in time relative to emerging markets. We also observe the familiar patterns of structural change (a decline in the agricultural share and an increase in the services share, both ...
Journal Article
Mortality and Economic Growth
Countries with higher economic growth had, on average, higher growth in their crude death rates.
Briefing
Aggregate Effects of the Adoption of AI
AI is holding out the prospect of substantial productivity improvements. While the potential of AI may be large, it is uncertain how much of that potential will be realized and how fast it will occur. Recent estimates of the medium-term AI impact on labor productivity range from negligible to larger than the 1990s IT impact. But should AI meaningfully affect medium-term productivity growth, monetary policy is likely to respond by accommodating the increase in potential output. On the other hand, recalling the 1990s IT diffusion, one should not be too surprised that, even though AI is ...
Journal Article
Reinventing Older Communities: Bridging Growth & Opportunity
How can economic growth create better job, education, and housing opportunities for low-income people and communities? The sixth biennial Reinventing Older Communities conference probed strategies to create opportunities in education, employment, revitalization, and other areas. Recurring themes were the importance of collaboration and partnership with different sectors and of ongoing data collection and analysis to identify issues and measure progress in addressing them
Speech
Updates on the Economy and the Federal Reserve’s Payments System Improvement Initiative 03-30-2017 Tenth Annual Risk Conference: “Promise and Peril: Managing the Uncertainty of Rapid Innovation and a Changing Economy”, Co-hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and DePaul University’s Center for Financial Services, Chicago, IL
Technological change is very apparent in the payments system. This morning, I will focus a large portion of my remarks on an initiative that the Federal Reserve is leading to address the rapidly changing landscape in the payments industry in the U.S. This initiative is a collaborative effort between the Fed and a broad array of private-sector participants, and aims to improve the speed, efficiency, security, and ubiquity of the U.S. payments system. I am happy to say that the effort has made significant progress and that several important milestones will be reached this year. But before I ...
Journal Article
Finding a Soft Landing along the Beveridge Curve
As U.S. economic growth slows this year, a key question is whether job openings can fall from historical highs without a substantial rise in unemployment. Analyzing the current Beveridge curve relationship between unemployment and job openings presents a meaningful possibility that labor market pressures can ease and achieve a “soft landing” with only a limited increase in unemployment. This view is supported by high rates of job matching in the U.S. labor market in 2022, despite ongoing employment reallocation across industries.
Journal Article
Recent and Near-Term Fiscal Policy: Headwind or Tailwind?
The federal government routinely uses government spending and taxes to help offset the highs and lows of the U.S. business cycle. While government spending typically increases during a recession, the magnitude of the fiscal expansion during the pandemic recession was outsized compared with the average historical pattern. This likely contributed to real economic growth and possibly inflation during the recovery. Over the next few years, U.S. fiscal policy is expected to be roughly neutral, providing neither a tailwind nor headwind to the overall economy.