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Speech
The outlook and the hazards of accelerationist policy
Plosser, Charles I. (2012-02-14)
Presented at the Economic Forecast, The University of Delaware Center for Economic Education and Entrepreneurship, Newark, Delaware, February 14, 2012
Speech , Paper 62

Speech
A perspective on the economic outlook
Plosser, Charles I. (2012-05-01)
Presented by Charles I. Plosser, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, CFA Society of San Diego, May 1, 2012
Speech , Paper 68

Journal Article
President's message : Looking forward
Lacker, Jeffrey M. (2007-10)
Econ Focus , Volume 11 , Issue Fall , Pages 1

Journal Article
Current Recession Risk According to the Yield Curve
Bauer, Michael D.; Mertens, Thomas M. (2022-05-09)
The slope of the Treasury yield curve is a popular recession predictor with an excellent track record. The two most common alternative measures of the slope typically move together but have diverged recently, making the resulting recession signals unclear. Economic arguments and empirical evidence, including its more accurate predictions, favor the difference between 10-year and 3-month Treasury securities. Recession probabilities for the next year derived from this spread so far remain modest.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2022 , Issue 11 , Pages 05

Journal Article
Can the term spread predict output growth and recessions? a survey of the literature
Wheelock, David C.; Wohar, Mark E. (2009-09)
This article surveys recent research on the usefulness of the term spread (i.e., the difference between the yields on long-term and short-term Treasury securities) for predicting changes in economic activity. Most studies use linear regression techniques to forecast changes in output or dichotomous choice models to forecast recessions. Others use time-varying parameter models, such as Markov-switching models and smooth transition models, to account for structural changes or other nonlinearities. Many studies find that the term spread predicts output growth and recessions up to one year in ...
Review , Volume 91 , Issue Sep , Pages 419-440

Journal Article
Guynn foresees solid growth for 2006 but cites long-term challenges
anonymous (2006-01-01)
While the economy should remain on a sustainable growth path in 2006, Atlanta Fed President Jack Guynn said the nation needs to focus now on issues that may hamper future growth.
Financial Update , Volume 19 , Issue Q 1

Speech
Improving the measurement of inflation expectations
Potter, Simon M. (2012)
Remarks at the Barclays 16th Annual Global Inflation-Linked Conference, New York City.
Speech , Paper 84

Speech
Remarks on the economic outlook: a speech at the International Monetary Conference, Barcelona, Spain (via satellite), June 3, 2008
Bernanke, Ben S. (2008)
Speech , Paper 409

Journal Article
Publishing FOMC economic forecasts
Rudebusch, Glenn D. (2008)
Given the time lag between a monetary policy action and its effect on the economy, the importance of considering economic forecasts in the conduct of policy has long been acknowledged. Still, it is only over the past decade or so that the publication of central bank economic forecasts has been widely recognized as a potentially useful tool for monetary policy communication. As a result, many central banks have begun to express their views about the likely future path of the economy more openly (in line with a general trend toward greater central bank transparency). ; Last November, the ...
FRBSF Economic Letter

Speech
The progress of recovery and challenges for policymakers: a speech at the Rotary Club of Birmingham, February 23, 2011
Plosser, Charles I. (2011-02-23)
Presented by Charles I. Plosser, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, to the Rotary Club of Birmingham, February 23, 2011>
Speech , Paper 49

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