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Working Paper
The Impact of Health and Economic Policies on the Spread of COVID-19 and Economic Activity
Leibovici, Fernando; Famiglietti, Matthew (2021-04)
This paper empirically investigates the causal linkages between COVID-19 spread, government health containment and economic support policies, and economic activity during 2020 in the U.S. We model their joint dynamics as generated by a structural vector autoregression and estimate it using U.S. state-level data. We identify structural shocks to the variables by making assumptions on their short-run relation consistent with salient epidemiological and economic features of COVID-19. We isolate the direct impact of COVID-19 spread and policy responses on economic activity by controlling for ...
Working Papers , Paper 2021-005

Journal Article
Economic Activity during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Model with “Acquired Immunity”
Carranza, Juan Esteban; Riascos, Álvaro José; Martin, Juan David (2022)
We calibrate a macroeconomic model with epidemiological restrictions using Colombian data. The key feature of our model is that a portion of the population is immune and cannot transmit the virus, which improves substantially the fit of the model to the observed contagion and economic activity data. The model implies that during 2020, government restrictions and the endogenous changes in individual behavior saved around 15,000 lives and decreased consumption by about 4.7 percent. The results suggest that most of this effect was the result of government policies.
Review , Volume 104 , Issue 1 , Pages 1-16

Journal Article
Idiosyncratic Sectoral Growth, Balanced Growth, and Sectoral Linkages
Foerster, Andrew T.; LaRose, Eric; Sarte, Pierre-Daniel G. (2018-04)
We study the growth properties of an economy where different sectors are linked by way of intermediates and potentially grow at different rates. We characterize the economy's equilibrium balanced growth path, and derive an analytical expression that summarizes how TFP growth in a given sector affects value added growth in every other sector and, therefore, aggregate GDP growth. We show in a special case that a version of Hulten's (1978) theorem, whereby the effects of changes in sector-specific productivity on GDP are entirely captured by that sector's share in GDP, also holds in growth rates ...
Economic Quarterly , Issue 2Q , Pages 79-101

Working Paper
The Short Lags of Monetary Policy
Buda, Gergely; Carvalho, Vasco M.; Corsetti, Giancarlo; Duarte, Joao B.; Hansen, Stephen; Moura, Afonso S.; Ortiz, Alberto; Rodrigo, Tomasa; Rodriguez Mora, José V.; Alves da Silva, Guilherme (2026-09-02)
We examine the transmission of monetary policy shocks to the macroeconomy at high frequency. To do so, we construct daily consumption and investment aggregates from bank transaction records and leverage administrative data on daily corporate sales and employment for Spain. We show that variables typically viewed as slow-moving, such as consumption and corporate sales, respond significantly within weeks. By contrast, aggregate employment and (monthly) consumer prices adjust only gradually. Disaggregating responses by sector, consumption category and supply-chain distance from final demand, we ...
Working Papers , Paper 2631

Discussion Paper
Fifth District Businesses Weigh in on Hiring and Wages
Mengedoth, Joseph (2022-12-01)
The Richmond Fed surveys a sample of businesses across our district on a monthly basis in order to gauge regional economic activity. These regional surveys provide timely information to our economists, Bank president, and the public about economic conditions in our district. In addition to standard questions about changes in new orders, hiring, and inventories, we often ask additional questions.
Regional Matters

Journal Article
A New “Big Data” Index of U.S. Economic Activity
Kelley, David; Butters, R. Andrew; Brave, Scott A. (2019)
The authors present a new ?big data? index of U.S. economic activity that can be used to track business and inflation cycles in real time and estimate monthly real gross domestic product growth.
Economic Perspectives , Issue 1 , Pages 1-30

Journal Article
The Fog of Numbers
Sekhposyan, Tatevik; Jordà, Òscar; Merrill, Colton; Kouchekinia, Noah (2020-07-15)
In times of economic turbulence, revisions to GDP data can be sizable, which makes conducting economic policy in real time during a crisis more difficult. A simple model based on Okun’s law can help refine the advance data release of real GDP growth to provide an improved reading of economic activity in real time. Applying this to data from the Great Recession explains some of the massive GDP revisions at that time. This could provide a guide for possible revisions to GDP releases during the current coronavirus crisis.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2020 , Issue 20 , Pages 5

Measuring the Decline in Economic Activity During the Covid-19 Pandemic
http://fedora:8080/fcrepo/rest/objects/authors/; Brave, Scott A. (2020-06-15)
On June 8, 2020, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) issued a statement announcing that its Business Cycle Dating Committee determined U.S. economic activity had reached a cyclical peak in February 2020. Beginning in March 2020, a multitude of economic indicators declined sharply as public health orders that required nonessential businesses to close were implemented during the early stages of the Covid-19 pandemic here in the U.S. The declines then accelerated in April as these orders were expanded to cover nearly the entire country. However, the data for May released so far seem ...
Chicago Fed Insights

How Does the Pandemic Recession Stack Up against the Great Depression?
Wheelock, David C. (2020-10-19)
The 2020 recession may turn out to be the sharpest, but also the shortest, in modern times and perhaps of all time in the U.S.
On the Economy

Texas economic activity expands modestly; labor market remains healthy
Leigh, Robert; Pranger, Ana; Su, Yichen; Yousuf, Mariam (2024-05-07)
Texas economic activity expanded at a modest pace in April. While the manufacturing sector rebounded, the service sector slowed. Texas employment growth was moderate in the first quarter, slightly above the state’s roughly 2 percent long-run trend, and the unemployment rate held steady.
Dallas Fed Economics

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