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Journal Article
Does Fiscal Stimulus Work when Recessions Are Caused by Too Much Private Debt?
We argue that fiscal stimulus funded by public debt is effective for increasing economic activity and employment even in recessions that are caused by overborrowing in the private sector. We analyze the impact of government spending on local economies between 2007 and 2009 and find evidence that the fiscal multiplier is higher in geographical areas characterized by higher individual household debt. The higher multiplier in those areas might be attributed to a direct increase in both household consumption and local economic slack.
Texas economic activity expands modestly; labor market remains healthy
Texas economic activity expanded at a modest pace in April. While the manufacturing sector rebounded, the service sector slowed. Texas employment growth was moderate in the first quarter, slightly above the state’s roughly 2 percent long-run trend, and the unemployment rate held steady.
Journal Article
Reforma Energética: Mexico takes first steps to overhaul oil industry
The fiscal health of the Mexican government and the living standards of Mexico?s citizens are inextricably tied to that of Pemex, making declining crude oil production over the past decade a particularly troubling sign for many in Mexico.
Report
President's Message: Reflections on the Pandemic at the One-Year Mark
Efforts intended to contain the pandemic caused a sharp reduction in economic activity. U.S. monetary and fiscal policy responses were significant and effective.
Journal Article
How Strongly Are Local Economies Tied to COVID-19?
The relationship between economic activity and local COVID-19 conditions—infections and deaths—has changed over time. While activity was strongly tied to local virus conditions during the first six to nine months of the pandemic, they decoupled in late 2020 through the first half of 2021. This link strengthened again in the third quarter of 2021, particularly for highly vaccinated counties. One possible interpretation of this restrengthening is that areas with high vaccination rates have heightened virus risk aversion and hence high sensitivity to changes in local virus conditions.
Service sector leads Texas gains; firms say credit constraints not binding
Texas economic activity expanded at a modest pace in May, driven by the service sector. Texas employment growth picked up, and the unemployment rate nudged up to 4.0 percent in April from 3.9 percent in March.
Discussion Paper
New Dataset Maps Losses from Natural Disasters to the County Level
The Federal Reserve’s mission and regional structure ask that it always work to better understand local and regional economic activity. This requires gauging the economic impact of localized events, including natural disasters. Despite the economic significance of natural disasters—flowing often from their human toll—there are currently no publicly available data on the damages they cause in the United States at the county level.
Discussion Paper
COVID-19 and Small Businesses: Uneven Patterns by Race and Income
The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in one of the sharpest recessions and recoveries in U.S. history. As the virus spread over the country in a matter of weeks in March 2020, most states rapidly locked down nonessential economic activity, which plummeted as a result. As the first wave of COVID-19 subsided and people gradually learned to “live with the virus,” states reversed most of the initial lockdowns and economic activity rebounded. In our ongoing Economic Inequality series, we have explored many aspects of how the economic turmoil associated with COVID-19 differentially affected ...
Journal Article
Tracking Business Sentiment in the Western United States
Information the San Francisco Fed collects from businesses and community sources for the Beige Book provides timely insights into economic activity at both the national and regional levels. Two new indexes based on Beige Book questionnaire responses track business sentiment across the western United States. The indexes track data on economic activity and inflation, serving as early indicators of official data releases and helping improve near-term forecasting accuracy. The latest index readings suggest weakening economic growth and intensifying inflationary pressures over the coming months.
How Does the Pandemic Recession Stack Up against the Great Depression?
The 2020 recession may turn out to be the sharpest, but also the shortest, in modern times and perhaps of all time in the U.S.