Working Paper
Measuring Geopolitical Risk
Caldara, Dario; Iacoviello, Matteo (2022-03-23)
We present a news-based measure of adverse geopolitical events and associated risks. The geopolitical risk (GPR) index spikes around the two world wars, at the beginning of the Korean War, during the Cuban Missile Crisis, and after 9/11. Higher geopolitical risk foreshadows lower investment and employment and is associated with higher disaster probability and larger downside risks. The adverse consequences of the GPR index are driven by both the threat and the realization of adverse geopolitical events. We complement our aggregate measures with industry- and firm-level indicators of ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1222r1

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On the Economy

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On the Economy

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On the Economy

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Kalyani, Aakash; Ozkan, Serdar; Bass, Mickenzie; Dueholm, Mick (2024-10-03)
An analysis of earnings calls shows a sharp rise in AI-related chatter among U.S. corporate executives. But this increase doesn’t appear to be matched by a similar rise in capital and R&D spending.
On the Economy