Search Results
Working Paper
The Macroeconomic Risks of Undesirably Low Inflation
This paper investigates the macroeconomic risks associated with undesirably low inflation using a medium-sized New Keynesian model. We consider different causes of persistently low inflation, including a downward shift in long-run inflation expectations, a fall in nominal wage growth, and a favorable supply-side shock. We show that the macroeconomic effects of persistently low inflation depend crucially on its underlying cause, as well as on the extent to which monetary policy is constrained by the zero lower bound. Finally, we discuss policy options to mitigate these effects.
Working Paper
Effective Lower Bound Risk
Even when the policy rate is currently not constrained by its effective lower bound (ELB), the possibility that the policy rate will become constrained in the future lowers today's inflation by creating tail risk in future inflation and thus reducing expected inflation. In an empirically rich model calibrated to match key features of the U.S. economy, we find that the tail risk induced by the ELB causes inflation to undershoot the target rate of 2 percent by as much as 50 basis points at the economy's risky steady state. Our model suggests that achieving the inflation target may be more ...
Journal Article
Is the Last Mile More Arduous?
US inflation surged starting in spring 2021, with Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation reaching a 40-year high of 9 percent in mid-2022. Together with improving supply-chain conditions, policy tightening by the Fed decreased inflation to within 1 to 2 percentage points of its 2 percent target by late 2023 without a significant increase in unemployment. However, concerns have been raised that the last mile of disinflation to reduce inflation consistently to its 2 percent target will be more arduous than the previous miles. Close examination of such concerns indicates that they do not receive ...
Discussion Paper
How Does Zombie Credit Affect Inflation? Lessons from Europe
Even after the unprecedented stimulus by central banks in Europe following the global financial crisis, Europe’s economic growth and inflation have remained depressed, consistently undershooting projections. In a striking resemblance to Japan’s “lost decades,” the European economy has been recently characterized by persistently low interest rates and the provision of cheap bank credit to impaired firms, or “zombie credit.” In this post, based on a recent staff report, we propose a “zombie credit channel” that links the rise of zombie credit to dis-inflationary pressures.
Report
Zombie Credit and (Dis-)Inflation: Evidence from Europe
We show that “zombie credit”—cheap credit to impaired firms—has a disinflationary effect. By helping distressed firms to stay afloat, such credit creates excess production capacity, thereby putting downward pressure on product prices. Granular European data on inflation, firms, and banks confirm this mechanism. Industry-country pairs affected by a rise of zombie credit show lower firm entry and exit rates, markups, and product prices, as well as a misallocation of capital and labor, which results in lower productivity, investment, and value added. Without a rise in zombie credit, ...
Speech
The First Steps toward Disinflation
Inflation in the U.S. is comparable to 1970s levels, and U.S. inflation expectations could become unmoored without credible Fed action, St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard said during a presentation in Barcelona, Spain. He noted that the Fed has reacted by taking important first steps to return inflation to the 2% target and that U.S. market interest rates have increased substantially, partially in response to promised Fed action.
The Costless Disinflation of 2022-24
An analysis examines changes in U.S. unemployment amid recent disinflation, comparing the episode with historical patterns and other countries’ experiences.
Report
A Faster Convergence of Shelter Prices and Market Rent: Implications for Inflation
The Federal Reserve currently faces a “last-mile” problem in bringing inflation back to its 2 percent target. Following the series of federal funds rate hikes that began in March 2022 and ended in July 2023, core (excluding food and energy) Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation dropped from a year-over-year peak of 5.6 percent in February 2022 to 2.9 percent in December 2023. At the end of 2023, hopes were high that falling inflation would allow the Fed to cut interest rates several times in 2024. However, the disinflation process slowed noticeably in early 2024, prompting ...
Speech
Reflections on the Disinflationary Methods of Poincaré and Thatcher
St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard talked about the academic literature related to “credible” versus “incredible” disinflation and how that may apply to current conditions. He spoke before the Money Marketeers of New York University.Current inflation in the U.S. and the euro area (EA) is near 1970s levels, Bullard said. The disinflation under former Fed Chair Paul Volcker was costly, he added, but it was not credible initially—Volcker had to earn credibility.Nobel laureate and economist Thomas Sargent initiated a literature on costless disinflation (“soft landings”) that ...
Newsletter
The Inflation Rate Is Falling, but Prices Are Not
Inflation is likely a topic your students are familiar with, but there is still a lot of confusion around the concept. This brief article explains the seeming paradox we see in our economy: The inflation rate is decreasing, but prices continue to increase. We’ll also disentangle the concepts of inflation, disinflation, deflation, and the CPI.