Search Results
Working Paper
Measuring Geopolitical Risk
We present a news-based measure of adverse geopolitical events and associated risks. The geopolitical risk (GPR) index spikes around the two world wars, at the beginning of the Korean War, during the Cuban Missile Crisis, and after 9/11. Higher geopolitical risk foreshadows lower investment and employment and is associated with higher disaster probability and larger downside risks. The adverse consequences of the GPR index are driven by both the threat and the realization of adverse geopolitical events. We complement our aggregate measures with industry- and firm-level indicators of ...
Discussion Paper
Risk and Resilience: How Weather-Related Disasters Impact Economically Marginalized Communities
Weather-related disaster risks have adverse economic impacts for workers, households, and communities across the country. Low-income communities and communities of color tend to be at disproportionate risk to economic disruptions from weather-related disasters. Our team surveyed and interviewed professionals in the Southeast that work with or whose work impacts these marginalized communities across core issue areas relevant to community development, resilience, and disaster risk management in the nonprofit, public, and private sectors. Respondents and interviewees shared their perceptions of ...
Briefing
Assessing GSE Mortgage Portfolios’ Exposure to Past and Future Flood Risk
This article evaluates the exposure of government-sponsored enterprises' (GSEs) mortgage portfolios to flood risks as projected by the First Street Foundation and analyzes the realized impact of Hurricane Irma on mortgage defaults. The analysis leverages extensive GSE data spanning from 1999 to 2023 and utilizes risk projections through 2050 to provide a comprehensive view of both potential future risks and actual past outcomes.
Working Paper
Preventing Controversial Catastrophes
In a market-based democracy, we model different constituencies that disagree regarding the likelihood of economic disasters. Costly public policy initiatives to reduce or eliminate disasters are assessed relative to private alternatives presented by financial markets. Demand for such public policies falls as much as 40% with disagreement, and crowding out by private insurance drives most of the reduction. As support for disaster-reducing policy jumps in periods of disasters, costly policies may be adopted only after disasters occur. In some scenarios constituencies may even demand policies ...