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Individuals, married couples respond differently to U.S. income tax changes
Borella, Margherita; De Nardi, Mariacristina; Pak, Michael; Russo, Nicolò; Yang, Fang (2024-11-19)
Changes in effective income taxes can impact labor supply with different outcomes for married couples and singles, and changes can have a particularly notable impact on married women.
Dallas Fed Economics

Journal Article
Searching for Maximum Employment
Albert, Sarah; Valletta, Robert G. (2022-02-07)
How well the economy is progressing toward the Federal Reserve’s goal of maximum employment is reflected in a range of indicators that evolve over time. Beyond the unemployment rate, two key metrics of labor market health are the labor force participation rate and the employment-to-population ratio. The aging of the population is reducing the levels of both measures, implying that they are unlikely to return to pre-pandemic highs. However, these two indicators remain well below their demographic trends, and analysis suggests that they will not recover to trend until 2024.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2022 , Issue 02 , Pages 06

Working Paper
From Population Growth to TFP Growth
Inokuma, Hiroshi; Sanchez, Juan M. (2023-03-27)
Using a firm-dynamics model that has been extended to include endogenous growth, we examine how population growth influences total factor productivity (TFP) growth. The most important theoretical result is that the growth rate of surviving old businesses is a "sufficient statistic" to determine the direction and the magnitude of the impact of population growth on TFP growth. Following that, the model is calibrated for Japan and the United States. The main finding of examining balanced growth paths (BGPs) with various rates of population growth is that the effect on TFP growth is sizable. ...
Working Papers , Paper 2023-006

Journal Article
At the Richmond Fed: Community Conversations
Sablik, Timothy (2023-04)
When Tom Barkin became president of the Richmond Fed in 2018, he made it his goal to spend time in every part of the Fifth District to stay well-informed about its communities. (See "Learning From Our District,") One of the ways the Richmond Fed's research department supports this goal is through an event series known as Community Conversations. These are one- or two-day road trips to visit with business and community leaders and learn about an area's challenges and successes.
Econ Focus , Volume 23 , Issue 2Q , Pages 13

Unprecedented U.S. immigration surge boosts job growth, output
Orrenius, Pia M.; Pranger, Ana; Zavodny, Madeline; Cañas, Jesus (2024-07-02)
U.S. labor market conditions are among the main drivers of an unprecedented surge of immigration, the exact size and consequences of which are still being assessed.
Dallas Fed Economics

Working Paper
Marriage Market Sorting in the U.S.
Cheremukhin, Anton A.; Restrepo-Echavarria, Paulina; Tutino, Antonella (2024-09-10)
We examine shifts in the U.S. marriage market, assessing how online dating, demographic changes, and evolving societal norms influence mate choice and broader sorting trends. Using a targeted search model, we analyze mate selection based on factors such as education, age, race, income, and skill. Intriguingly, despite the rise of online dating, preferences, mate choice, and overall sorting patterns showed negligible change from 2008 to 2021. However, a longer historical view from 1960 to 2020 reveals a trend toward preferences for similarity, particularly concerning income, education, and ...
Working Papers , Paper 2023-023

Report
Demographic origins of the startup deficit
Karahan, Fatih; Sahin, Aysegul; Pugsley, Benjamin (2019-05-01)
We propose a simple explanation for the long-run decline in the U.S. startup rate. It originates from a slowdown in labor supply growth since the late 1970s, largely pre-determined by demographics. This channel can explain roughly 60 percent of the decline and why incumbent firm survival and average growth over the lifecycle have changed little. We show these results in a standard model of firm dynamics and test the mechanism using cross-state variation in labor supply growth. Finally, we show that a longer entry rate series imputed using historical establishment tabulations rises over the ...
Staff Reports , Paper 888

Working Paper
Demographics and Real Interest Rates Across Countries and Over Time
Nechio, Fernanda; Carvalho, Carlos; Mazin, Felipe; Ferrero, Andrea (2023-10-24)
We explore the implications of demographic trends for the evolution of real interest rates across countries and over time. To that end, we develop a tractable three-country general equilibrium model with imperfect capital mobility and country-specific demographic trends. We calibrate the model to study how low-frequency movements in a country's real interest rate depend on its own and other countries' demographic factors, given a certain degree of financial integration. The more financially integrated a country is, the higher the sensitivity of its real interest rate to global developments ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2023-32

Report
A unified approach to measuring u*
Eusepi, Stefano; Giannoni, Marc; Sahin, Aysegul; Crump, Richard K. (2019-05-01)
This paper bridges the gap between two popular approaches to estimating the natural rate of unemployment, u*. The first approach uses detailed labor market indicators, such as labor market flows, cross-sectional data on unemployment and vacancies, or various measures of demographic changes. The second approach, which employs reduced-form models and DSGE models, relies on aggregate price and wage Phillips curve relationships. We combine the key features of these two approaches to estimate the natural rate of unemployment in the United States using both data on labor market flows and a ...
Staff Reports , Paper 889

Discussion Paper
How Has Germany's Economy Been Affected by the Recent Surge in Immigration?
Klitgaard, Thomas; Higgins, Matthew (2019-05-20)
Germany emerged as a leading destination for immigration around 2011, as the country's labor market improved while unemployment climbed elsewhere in the European Union. A second wave began in 2015, with refugees from the Middle East adding to already heavy inflows from Eastern Europe. The demographic consequences of the surge in immigration include a renewed rise in Germany's population and the stabilization of the country's median age. The macroeconomic consequences are hard to measure but look promising, since per capita income growth has held up and unemployment has declined. Data on ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20190520

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