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Speech
Good Day Sunshine
Remarks at Midsize Bank Coalition of America (delivered via videoconference).
Journal Article
“Great Resignations” Are Common During Fast Recoveries
The record percentage of workers who are quitting their jobs, known as the “Great Resignation,” is not a shift in worker attitudes in the wake of the pandemic. Evidence on which workers are quitting suggests that it reflects the strong rebound of the demand for younger and less-educated workers. Historical data on quits in manufacturing suggest that the current wave is not unusual. Waves of job quits have occurred during all fast recoveries in the postwar period.
Discussion Paper
(Unmet) Credit Demand of American Households
One of the direct effects of the 2008 financial crisis on U.S. households was a sharp tightening of credit. Households that had previously been able to borrow relatively freely through credit cards, home equity loans, or personal loans suddenly found those lines closed off—just when they needed them the most. In recent months, aggregate statistics such as the Federal Reserve’s Consumer Credit series and the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey have shown a gradual improvement in consumer credit. The former series is an indicator of interaction of credit supply and demand, while the latter ...
Speech
Restoring Balance
Remarks at New Jersey City University (delivered via videoconference).
Speech
Supply Factors and the Evolution of the Economy
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President & CEO Susan M. Collins delivered the 2025 Razin Economic Policy Lecture on “Supply Factors and the Evolution of the Economy” at Georgetown University. President Collins says her outlook for both economic activity and inflation remains clouded by significant uncertainty, as well as competing risks. She notes supply-side factors have been underappreciated in “understanding how the economy has evolved,” which is “critical for assessing its likely trajectory.” Looking ahead, President Collins expects supply factors will continue to play a key ...
Working Paper
Heterogeneity in the Pass-Through from Oil to Gasoline Prices: A New Instrument for Estimating the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand
We propose a new instrument for estimating the price elasticity of gasoline demand that exploits systematic differences across U.S. states in the pass-through of oil price shocks to retail gasoline prices. We show that these differences are primarily driven by the cost of producing and distributing gasoline, which varies with states’ access to oil and gasoline transportation infrastructure, refinery technology and environmental regulations, creating cross-sectional gasoline price shocks in response to an aggregate oil price shock. Time-varying estimates do not support the view that the ...
Journal Article
When Is Shelter Services Inflation Coming Down?
Shelter costs are one of the largest expenses for most households and an important component of overall inflation. It is therefore important to understand why shelter costs have remained stubbornly high. A key explanation is that, especially since the pandemic, demand for housing has been growing faster than new units have come into the market. Using the gap between the demand for and supply of housing along with other leading indicators of shelter prices can help assess whether shelter inflation will continue on a path toward historically normal levels.
Discussion Paper
What's Behind Firms' Reported Improvements in Meeting Demand?
According to special question results from our most recent monthly business survey, Fifth District firms reported improvement in their ability to meet customer demand compared to earlier in the year. Moreover, the majority of respondents said they expect to fully meet customer demand in the next 12 months. Although firms have continued to take action to boost production, softening demand itself may be another reason for the reported improvements.
Speech
Parsing the Pandemic’s Effects on Labor Markets
Opening Remarks at the Bank’s 66th Economic Conference, “Labor Markets During and After the Pandemic”. Potentially long-lasting effects of the pandemic on the labor market, such as increased remote work and accelerated automation of service-sector jobs, are likely to have differential effects across the workforce. Understanding these differences is important for achieving the Fed’s mission of a vibrant, inclusive economy in the wake of COVID-19.