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Journal Article
Deja Vu? The Recent Rise in Credit Card Debt Delinquencies
Sanchez, Juan M.; Wilkinson, Olivia (2023-08-14)
An analysis examines how a recent rise in credit card debt delinquencies compares with a similar trend during the global financial crisis of 2007-09.
The Regional Economist

Working Paper
Earnings Misperceptions and Household Distress
Sanchez, Juan M.; Song, Stefan (2025-11-03)
Households learn whether income changes are temporary or persistent from their own paychecks. This paper develops a quantitative model of financial distress that incorporates this inference and estimates the extent to which households overweight recent outcomes—diagnostic expectations—using survey data on income beliefs. The model explains distress without assuming extreme impatience and aligns with the observed relationship between income and interest rates. Learning and diagnostic expectations account for about half of delinquencies and one-third of bankruptcies. Diagnostic expectations ...
Working Papers , Paper 2025-030

Report
Personal Bankruptcy Protection and Household Debt
Severino, Felipe; Brown, Meta; Chakrabarti, Rajashri (2024-04-01)
Increasing personal bankruptcy protection raises consumers’ desire to borrow and lenders’ cost of extending credit; the impact on equilibrium borrowing is ambiguous. Using bankruptcy protection changes between 1999 and 2005 across U.S. states, we find that borrowers respond to greater protection by increasing their unsecured debt. Border county estimates suggest that local economic conditions do not drive these results. Borrowers pay more for protection through higher interest rates, yet delinquency is unaffected. Remarkably, our results indicate that rising borrower demand outstripped ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1099

Working Paper
Earnings Misperceptions and Household Distress
Sanchez, Juan M.; Song, Stefan (2025-10-24)
Households learn whether income changes are temporary or persistent from the history of their own paychecks. This paper develops a quantitative model of household financial distress that incorporates this inference and uses survey data on income expectations to estimate the extent to which households overweight recent outcomes—diagnostic expectations. The model improves on the standard full-information, rational-expectations benchmark in two key dimensions: it explains financial distress without assuming extreme impatience, and it more accurately captures the empirical correlation between ...
Working Papers , Paper 2025-030

Speech
Opening remarks at the Convening on Student Loan Data Conference
Dudley, William (2015-03-04)
Remarks at the Convening on Student Loan Data Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City.
Speech , Paper 158

Report
State Investment in Higher Education: Effects on Human Capital Formation, Student Debt, and Long-Term Financial Outcomes of Students
Lovenheim, Michael; Gorton, Nicole; Chakrabarti, Rajashri (2020-09-01)
Most public colleges and universities rely heavily on state financial support. As state budgets have tightened in recent decades, appropriations for higher education have declined substantially. Despite concerns expressed by policymakers and scholars that the declines in state support have reduced the return to education investment for public sector students, little evidence exists that can identify the causal effect of these funds on long-run outcomes. We present the first such analysis in the literature using new data that leverages the merger of two rich datasets—consumer credit records ...
Staff Reports , Paper 941

Discussion Paper
Debt Relief and the CARES Act: Which Borrowers Face the Most Financial Strain?
Chakrabarti, Rajashri; Haughwout, Andrew F.; Lee, Donghoon; Nober, William; Scally, Joelle; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2020-08-19)
In yesterday's post, we studied the expected debt relief from the CARES Act on mortgagors and student debt borrowers. We now turn our attention to the 63 percent of American borrowers who do not have a mortgage or student loan. These borrowers will not directly benefit from the loan forbearance provisions of the CARES Act, although they may be able to receive some types of leniency that many lenders have voluntarily provided. We ask who these borrowers are, by age, geography, race and income, and how does their financial health compare with other borrowers.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200819

Ready for the Pandemic? Household Debt before the COVID-19 Shock
Famiglietti, Matthew; Garriga, Carlos (2020-05-13)
Before the pandemic, shares of delinquencies had already been growing in consumer finance loans, credit card debt, student loans and auto loans. And delinquencies can vary greatly among states.
On the Economy

Working Paper
Do homeowners associations mitigate or aggravate negative spillovers from neighboring homeowner distress?
Meltzer, Rachel; Cheung, Ron; Cunningham, Chris (2013-12-01)
Experiences reveal that the monitoring costs of the foreclosure crisis may be nontrivial, and smaller governments may have more success at addressing potential negative externalities. One highly localized form of government is a homeowners association (HOA). HOAs could be well-suited for triaging foreclosures, as they may detect delinquencies and looming defaults through direct observation or missed dues. On the other hand, the reliance on dues may leave HOAs particularly vulnerable to members? foreclosure. We examine how property prices respond to homeowner distress and foreclosure within ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2013-18

Discussion Paper
Younger Borrowers Are Struggling with Credit Card and Auto Loan Payments
Haughwout, Andrew F.; Lee, Donghoon; Mangrum, Daniel; Scally, Joelle; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2023-02-16)
Total debt balances grew by $394 billion in the fourth quarter of 2022, the largest nominal quarterly increase in twenty years, according to the latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit from the New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data. Mortgage balances, the largest form of household debt, drove the increase with a gain of $254 billion, while credit card balances saw a $61 billion increase—the largest observed in the history of our data, which goes back to 1999.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20230216

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