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Discussion Paper
Just Released: Hints of Increased Hardship in America’s Oil-Producing Counties
Lee, Donghoon; Haughwout, Andrew F.; Scally, Joelle; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2016-05-24)
Today, the New York Fed released the Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit for the first quarter of 2016. Overall debt saw one of its larger increases since deleveraging ended, while delinquency rates for the United States continued to improve and remain at very low levels. Although the overall picture of Americans? liabilities has continued to improve since the financial crisis, we wondered what the variation looks like at local levels. One advantage of our Consumer Credit Panel (CCP), which is based on Equifax credit data, is that we can examine geographic variation in debt and ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20160524

Speech
Opening remarks at the Convening on Student Loan Data Conference
Dudley, William (2015-03-04)
Remarks at the Convening on Student Loan Data Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City.
Speech , Paper 158

Working Paper
Returning to the Nest: Debt and Parental Co-residence Among Young Adults
Hsu, Joanne W.; Dettling, Lisa J. (2014-09-02)
This paper examines the relationship between a young adults' debt burden and the decision to co-reside with a parent. Using a quarterly panel of young adults' credit histories, and controlling for age, county, and quarter fixed effects, and local demographic characteristics, unemployment rates, and house prices, we estimate the relationship between current period debt and subsequent decisions to co-reside with a parent. Our results indicate that indebtedness--as measured by average loan balances, declining credit scores and delinquency on accounts--increases flows into parental co-residence. ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2014-80

Journal Article
Deja Vu? The Recent Rise in Credit Card Debt Delinquencies
Sanchez, Juan M.; Wilkinson, Olivia (2023-08-14)
An analysis examines how a recent rise in credit card debt delinquencies compares with a similar trend during the global financial crisis of 2007-09.
The Regional Economist

Working Paper
Minimum Wages and Consumer Credit : Impacts on Access to Credit and Traditional and High-Cost Borrowing
Dettling, Lisa J.; Hsu, Joanne W. (2017-01-15)
Proponents of minimum wage legislation point to its potential to raise earnings and reduce poverty, while opponents argue that disemployment effects lead to net welfare losses. But these arguments typically ignore the possibility of spillover effects on other aspects of households' financial circumstances. This paper examines how state-level minimum wages affect the decisions of lenders and low-income borrowers. Using data derived from direct mailings of credit offers, survey-reported usage of high-cost alternative credit products, and debt recorded in credit reports, we find that higher ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2017-010

Working Paper
Stress Testing Household Debt
Bhutta, Neil; Dettling, Lisa J.; Laufer, Steven; Bricker, Jesse; Kelliher, Jimmy (2019-02-13)
We estimate a county-level model of household delinquency and use it to conduct "stress tests" of household debt. Applying house price and unemployment rate shocks from Comprehensive Capital Analysis Review (CCAR) stress tests, we find that forecasted delinquency rates for the recent stock of debt are moderately lower than for the stock of debt before the 2007-09 financial crisis, given the same set of shocks. This decline in expected delinquency rates under stress reflects an improvement in debt-to-income ratios and an increase in the share of debt held by borrowers with relatively high ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2019-008

Working Paper
The Impact of Missed Payments and Foreclosures on Credit Scores
Demyanyk, Yuliya (2014-10-27)
This paper debunks the common perception that ?foreclosure will ruin your credit score.? Using individual-level data from a credit bureau matched with loan-level mortgage data, it is estimated that the very first missed mortgage payment leads to the biggest reduction in credit scores. The effects of subsequent loan impairments are increasingly muted. Post-delinquency foreclosures have only a minimal effect on credit scores. Moreover, credit scores improve substantially a year after borrowers experience 90-day delinquency or foreclosure. The data supports one possible explanation of this ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1423

Working Paper
State Mandated Financial Education and the Credit Behavior of Young Adults
Brown, Alexandra; Collins, J. Michael; Schmeiser, Maximilian D.; Urban, Carly (2014-09-03)
In the U.S., a number of states have mandated personal finance classes in public school curricula to address perceived deficiencies in financial decision-making competency. Despite the growth of financial and economic education provided in public schools, little is known about the effect of these programs on the credit behaviors of young adults. Using a panel of credit report data, we examine young adults in three states where personal financial education mandates were implemented in 2007: Georgia, Idaho, and Texas. We compare the credit scores and delinquency rates of young adults in each of ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2014-68

Discussion Paper
Debt Relief and the CARES Act: Which Borrowers Face the Most Financial Strain?
Chakrabarti, Rajashri; Haughwout, Andrew F.; Lee, Donghoon; Nober, William; Scally, Joelle; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2020-08-19)
In yesterday's post, we studied the expected debt relief from the CARES Act on mortgagors and student debt borrowers. We now turn our attention to the 63 percent of American borrowers who do not have a mortgage or student loan. These borrowers will not directly benefit from the loan forbearance provisions of the CARES Act, although they may be able to receive some types of leniency that many lenders have voluntarily provided. We ask who these borrowers are, by age, geography, race and income, and how does their financial health compare with other borrowers.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200819

Working Paper
Consumption in the Great Recession: The Financial Distress Channel
Athreya, Kartik B.; Sanchez, Juan M.; Mather, Ryan; Mustre-del-Rio, Jose (2019-08-29)
During the Great Recession, the collapse of consumption across the US varied greatly but systematically with house-price declines. Our message is that household financial health matters for understanding this relationship. Two facts are essential for our finding: (1) the decline in house prices led to an increase in household financial distress (FD) prior to the decline in income during the recession, and (2) at the zip-code level, the prevalence of FD prior to the recession was positively correlated with house-price declines at the onset of the recession. We measure the power of the ...
Working Paper , Paper 19-13

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