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Working Paper
A tale of two commitments: equilibrium default and temptation
Nakajima, Makoto (2013-12-11)
I construct the life-cycle model with equilibrium default and preferences featuring temptation and self-control. The model provides quantitatively similar answers to positive questions such as the causes of the observed rise in debt and bankruptcies and macroeconomic implications of the 2005 bankruptcy reform, as the standard model without temptation. However, the temptation model provides contrasting welfare implications, because of overborrowing when the borrowing constraint is relaxed. Specifically, the 2005 bankruptcy reform has an overall negative welfare effect, according to the ...
Working Papers , Paper 14-1

Report
Student Debt and Default: The Role of For-Profit Colleges
Chakrabarti, Rajashri; Lovenheim, Michael; Armona, Luis (2017-04-01)
For-profit providers have become an important fixture of U.S. higher education markets. Students who attend for-profit institutions take on more educational debt and are more likely to default on their student loans than those attending similarly selective public schools. Because for-profits tend to serve students from more disadvantaged backgrounds, it is important to isolate the causal effect of for-profit enrollment on student debt and repayment outcomes as well as the educational and labor market mechanisms that drive any such effects. We approach this problem using a novel instrument ...
Staff Reports , Paper 811

Working Paper
Seigniorage and Sovereign Default: The Response of Emerging Markets to COVID-19
Espino, Emilio; Sanchez, Juan M.; Martin, Fernando M.; Kozlowski, Julian (2020-07-10)
Monetary policy affects the tradeoffs faced by governments in sovereign default models. In the absence of lump-sum taxation, governments rely on both disortionary taxes and seigniorage to finance expenditure. Furthermore, monetary policy adds a time-consistency problem in debt choice, which may mitigate or exacerbate the incentives to accumulate debt. A deterioration of the terms-of-trade leads to an increase in sovereign-default risk and inflation, and a reduction in growth, which are consistent with the empirical evidence for emerging economies. An unanticipated shock resembling the ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-017

Discussion Paper
Assessing Contagion Risk in a Financial Network
Duarte, Fernando M.; Ruela, Francisco; Jones, Collin (2019-06-24)
Since the 2008 financial crisis, there has been an explosion of research trying to understand and quantify the default spillovers that can arise through counterparty risk. This first of two posts delves into the analysis of financial network contagion through this spillover channel. The authors introduce a framework, originally developed by Eisenberg and Noe, that is useful for thinking about default cascades.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20190624

Working Paper
Policy Rules and Large Crises in Emerging Markets
Espino, Emilio; Kozlowski, Julian; Martin, Fernando M.; Sanchez, Juan M. (2022-08-31)
In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, Latin American countries temporarily suspended rules limiting debt, fiscal and monetary policies. Despite this increase in flexibility, the crisis implied a substantial deterioration of macroeconomic variables (e.g., real GDP declined by 9.5%) and high welfare costs (which we estimate as equivalent to a 13% one-time reduction in non-tradable consumption). This paper studies a sovereign default model with fiscal and monetary policies to assess the policy response and evaluate the gains from flexibility in times of severe distress.
Working Papers , Paper 2022-018

Discussion Paper
Who Falters at Student Loan Payback Time?
Chakrabarti, Rajashri; Lovenheim, Michael; Morris, Kevin (2016-09-09)
This is the final post in a four-part series examining the evolution of enrollment, student loans, graduation and default in the higher education market over the course of the past fifteen years. In the first post, we found a marked increase in enrollment of 35 percent between 2000 and 2015, led mostly by the for-profit sector?which increased enrollment by 177 percent. The second post showed that these new enrollees were quite different from the traditional enrollees. Yesterday?s post demonstrated an unprecedented increase in loan origination amounts during this period?nearly tripling between ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20160909

Journal Article
When Nations Don't Pay Their Debts
Sablik, Timothy (2018-07)
Features article: When Nations Don't Pay Their Debts: What happens when countries can't or won't repay
Econ Focus , Issue 3Q , Pages 11-14

Working Paper
The Dynamics of Adjustable-Rate Subprime Mortgage Default: A Structural Estimation
Li, Wenli; Kim, You Suk; Fang, Hanming (2015-12-18)
We present a dynamic structural model of subprime adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) borrowers making payment decisions taking into account possible consequences of different degrees of delinquency from their lenders. We empirically implement the model using unique data sets that contain information on borrowers' mortgage payment history, their broad balance sheets, and lender responses. Our investigation of the factors that drive borrowers' decisions reveals that subprime ARMs are not all alike. For loans originated in 2004 and 2005, the interest rate resets associated with ARMs, as well as the ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2015-114

Discussion Paper
Is Free College the Solution to Student Debt Woes? Studying the Heterogeneous Impacts of Merit Aid Programs
Chakrabarti, Rajashri; Nober, William; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2019-10-10)
The rising cost of a college education has become an important topic of discussion among both policymakers and practitioners. At least eleven states have recently introduced programs to make public two-year education tuition free, including New York, which is rolling out its Excelsior Scholarship to provide tuition-free four-year college education to low-income students across the SUNY and CUNY systems. Prior to these new initiatives, New York, had already instituted merit scholarship programs that subsidize the cost of college conditional on academic performance and in-state attendance. ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20191010

Working Paper
The Persistence of Financial Distress
Sanchez, Juan M.; Athreya, Kartik B.; Mustre-del-Rio, Jose (2017-11-09)
Using recently available proprietary panel data, we show that while many (35%) US consumers experience financial distress at some point in the life cycle, most of the events of financial distress are primarily concentrated in a much smaller proportion of consumers in persistent trouble. Roughly 10% of consumers are distressed for more than a quarter of the life cycle, and less than 10% of borrowers account for half of all distress events. These facts can be largely accounted for in a straightforward extension of a workhorse model of defaultable debt that accommodates a simple form of ...
Working Papers , Paper 2017-38

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