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Working Paper
Customer Capital, Markup Cyclicality, and Amplification
This paper studies the importance of firm-level price markup dynamics for business cycle fluctuations. Using state-of-the-art IO techniques to measure the behavior of markups over the business cycle at the firm level, I find that markups are countercyclical with an average elasticity of -1.1 with respect to real GDP. Importantly, I find substantial heterogeneity in markup cyclicality across firms, with small firms having significantly more counter-cyclical markups than large firms. Then, I develop a general equilibrium model by embedding customer capital (due to deep habits as in Ravn, ...
Working Paper
A Quantitative Theory of Relationship Lending
Banks' loan pricing decisions reflect the fact that borrowers tend to have long-lasting relationships with lenders. Therefore, pricing decisions have an inherently dynamic component: high interest rates may yield higher static profits per loan, but in the long run they erode a banks' customer base and reduce future profitability. We study this tradeoff using a dynamic banking model which embeds lending relationships using deep habits (“customer capital”) and costs of adjusting loan portfolio composition. High customer capital raises the level and decreases the interest rate elasticity of ...
Working Paper
A Quantitative Theory of Relationship Lending
Borrower-lender relationships tend to be long-lasting, and lender switching is infrequent. What are the aggregate consequences of these facts? We address this question in a model of heterogeneous banks subject to financial frictions. We incorporate lending relationships using loan portfolio adjustment costs for borrowers and accumulation of "relationship capital" for lenders. The model's implied loan demand system is directly estimated on administrative loan-level micro data to recover the key novel parameters governing the strength and persistence of lending relationships. We find that ...